Tabular foundation models excel on tiny- to medium-sized IID data but are outperformed by traditional tree-based and deep learning models on non-IID, large, and high-dimensional datasets, based on evaluations across 11 models and 142 datasets in the new BeyondArena benchmark.
Tabpfn: One model to rule them all?
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Transformers can implement gradient descent targeting posterior predictive mean and variance followed by binning to approximate PPDs in-context for Gaussian process regression.
PFN-TS converts PFN posterior predictives into mean-reward samples for Thompson sampling using a subsampled predictive CLT, with consistency proofs, regret bounds, and strong empirical performance on synthetic and real bandit benchmarks.
TabPFN-2.5 scales tabular foundation models to 20x larger datasets, outperforms tuned tree models on TabArena, achieves near-perfect win rates against default XGBoost, and adds a distillation engine for fast production deployment.
A review organizes externally controlled trial methodology through causal estimands and identifiability assumptions for single-arm and hybrid designs with borrowing strategies.
citing papers explorer
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Beyond IID: How General Are Tabular Foundation Models, Really?
Tabular foundation models excel on tiny- to medium-sized IID data but are outperformed by traditional tree-based and deep learning models on non-IID, large, and high-dimensional datasets, based on evaluations across 11 models and 142 datasets in the new BeyondArena benchmark.
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Transformers Can Learn Posterior Predictive Distributions In-Context
Transformers can implement gradient descent targeting posterior predictive mean and variance followed by binning to approximate PPDs in-context for Gaussian process regression.
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PFN-TS: Thompson Sampling for Contextual Bandits via Prior-Data Fitted Networks
PFN-TS converts PFN posterior predictives into mean-reward samples for Thompson sampling using a subsampled predictive CLT, with consistency proofs, regret bounds, and strong empirical performance on synthetic and real bandit benchmarks.
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TabPFN-2.5: Advancing the State of the Art in Tabular Foundation Models
TabPFN-2.5 scales tabular foundation models to 20x larger datasets, outperforms tuned tree models on TabArena, achieves near-perfect win rates against default XGBoost, and adds a distillation engine for fast production deployment.
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Externally Controlled Trials: A Review of Design and Borrowing Through a Causal Lens
A review organizes externally controlled trial methodology through causal estimands and identifiability assumptions for single-arm and hybrid designs with borrowing strategies.