Online conformal prediction post-processing guarantees calibrated uncertainty coverage for GenCast, NeuralGCM, and AIFS-ENS forecasts of temperature and precipitation including extremes.
Watt-Meyer, B
3 Pith papers cite this work. Polarity classification is still indexing.
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A framework builds stable neural models of turbulent dynamics by enforcing energy-preserving nonlinearities and causal constraints in discrete-time flow maps, demonstrated on Charney-DeVore and Lorenz-96 systems.
DroughtFormer predicts soil moisture, vegetation health, and related variables in Africa with skill out to 90 days that matches or exceeds climatology for most targets, but shows lower accuracy for precipitation and flash drought indices.
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Physics and causally constrained discrete-time neural models of turbulent dynamical systems
A framework builds stable neural models of turbulent dynamics by enforcing energy-preserving nonlinearities and causal constraints in discrete-time flow maps, demonstrated on Charney-DeVore and Lorenz-96 systems.