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arxiv: 2606.21625 · v1 · pith:ZETMCTMVnew · submitted 2026-06-19 · 🌌 astro-ph.EP

The GAPS Programme at TNG LXXIV. A reanalysis of the planetary systems TOI-1272 and TOI-1694 with HARPS-N and retraction of the planetary interpretation of TOI-1272 c

L. Mancini , L. Naponiello , M. Damasso , K. Biazzo , A. S. Bonomo , A. F. Lanza , J. Lillo-Box , M. Pinamonti
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R. Cosentino A. Bignamini W. Boschin A. Fiorenzano P. Giacobbe F. Manni M. Rainer G. Scandariato A. Sozzetti
This is my paper

Pith reviewed 2026-06-26 13:10 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 🌌 astro-ph.EP
keywords exoplanetsradial velocitystellar activityTOI-1272TOI-1694hot NeptunesGaussian process regression
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The pith

Stellar activity accounts for the radial-velocity variation previously attributed to a second planet around TOI-1272, leading to its retraction.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper reexamines the planetary systems TOI-1272 and TOI-1694 by combining transit photometry with new and archival radial-velocity data. It applies Gaussian-process modeling to separate stellar activity from potential planetary signals in the TOI-1272 system. This shows the variation seen in one dataset is due to the star rather than a planet, retracting the candidate TOI-1272 c. Refined orbital parameters for the remaining planets indicate possible high-eccentricity migration for one and mixed migration history for the other. Readers would care because clarifying such signals helps map how planets survive close to their stars.

Core claim

Using available photometry along with new and archival high-precision radial-velocity measurements, joint-fit analyses that included Gaussian-process regressions for modeling stellar activity in TOI-1272 identify the radial-velocity variation found in the archival data as stellar activity rather than planetary in nature. This leads to rejection of the non-transiting planet TOI-1272 c. The larger number of data points also shows that both planets in TOI-1694 move on slightly eccentric orbits, with the current orbital architecture suggesting a history of migration driven by both disc and dynamical interactions. Final parameter estimates for the two systems are consistent with previous measurem

What carries the argument

Joint-fit analyses incorporating Gaussian-process regressions to model stellar activity in radial-velocity data

If this is right

  • The eccentricity of the transiting planet in TOI-1272 may result from high-eccentricity migration.
  • Both planets in the TOI-1694 system move on slightly eccentric orbits.
  • The orbital architecture of TOI-1694 indicates a migration history involving both disc and dynamical interactions.
  • Parameter estimates for both systems have smaller uncertainties than before.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • Similar reanalyses of other systems with limited radial-velocity data could retract additional planet candidates if activity is properly modeled.
  • Distinguishing activity from planets in radial-velocity data may require even more observations to confirm the absence of signals.
  • Understanding migration pathways for hot Neptunes benefits from cases where eccentricity is linked to specific mechanisms.

Load-bearing premise

The Gaussian-process regression accurately models the stellar activity-induced radial-velocity variations without removing or creating a false planetary signal.

What would settle it

New radial-velocity observations that reveal a periodic signal at the period of the retracted planet, uncorrelated with stellar activity indicators, would challenge the conclusion that it is activity.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2606.21625 by A. Bignamini, A. Fiorenzano, A. F. Lanza, A. S. Bonomo, A. Sozzetti, F. Manni, G. Scandariato, J. Lillo-Box, K. Biazzo, L. Mancini, L. Naponiello, M. Damasso, M. Pinamonti, M. Rainer, P. Giacobbe, R. Cosentino, W. Boschin.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: A section of the Rp versus Mp linear-log diagram of known tran￾siting exoplanets with a mass between 10 and 100 M⊕ (measured with an accuracy to within 20%) and a radius between 3 and 10 R⊕. Data taken from TEPCat. The positions of TOI-1274 b and TOI-1694 b are highlighted (this work). Exoplanets inside the green zone are giant plan￾ets with sizes and masses between those of Neptune and Saturn. The positio… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: (top panel), with several extreme examples, as we already mentioned. In the right-hand panel of Fig. B.2, we compared the CDF related to the planetary density of the Neptune-desert sample with those of the ridge and savanna samples (we only Article number, page 2 of 20 [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p002_2.png] view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: Left panels. Time series of the RVs and spectroscopic activity indicators derived from the HARPS-N spectra of TOI-1272, with the average values subtracted. The residual RVs, after subtracting the signal of the transiting planet b obtained with a Monte Carlo analysis, are shown in the second panel from the top. Right panels. Their corresponding GLS periodograms. The GLS of the original RVs is obtained by fi… view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Phase-folded RV measurements to the period of planet TOI￾1694 b (top panel) and TOI-1694 c (middle panel), together with their residuals superimposed on the model. The black and red circles repre￾sent HARPS-N and HIRES data sets, respectively. The error bars in￾clude both the data uncertainty and the jitter derived from the analysis. compatible with that of the claimed planet c. Concerning the HARPS-N data… view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Top Panel: HARPS-N (HIRES) RV measurements of TOI-1272 in black (red) phase-folded to the period of planet b, together with our best-fit model. RV residuals from the best fit are also shown in parts per million. Bottom Panel: Phase-folded unbinned TESS light curve for TOI-1272 (light-blue points). The solid blue line shows the model fit to the light curve. The residuals are also shown. The blue filled circ… view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: Same as bottom panel of [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p011_6.png] view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7 [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p011_7.png] view at source ↗
read the original abstract

Hot Neptunes are close-in exoplanets that occupy a sparsely populated region of parameter space known as the "hot-Neptune desert". Their presence in this extreme environment is puzzling as it implies a complex history involving intense stellar radiation, atmospheric loss, and unique migration patterns, different from Neptunes at larger orbital periods. We are running an observational programme conceived to enlarge the number of close-in Neptune-sized planets, with well-measured physical and orbital parameters, with the aim of contributing to obtaining a statistically significant sample needed to clarify what the formation and migration pathways of this class of exoplanets are. We used currently available TESS photometry, along with new (HARPS-N) and archival (HIRES) high-precision radial-velocity measurements, to review the main properties of the planetary systems TOI-1272 and TOI-1694 by means of joint-fit analyses that, in the case of TOI-1272, included Gaussian-process regressions for carefully modelling stellar activity. Our final estimates of the parameters of the two systems are consistent with previous measurements but have smaller uncertainties. We identified the radial-velocity variation of TOI-1272 found in the HIRES data as stellar activity rather than planetary in nature and, therefore, rejected the non-transiting planet TOI-1272c. This opens up the possibility that TOI-1272b's eccentricity is the result of high-eccentricity migration. The larger number of data at our disposal also allowed us to point out that both TOI-1694b and TOI-1694c move on slightly eccentric orbits. The current orbital architecture of TOI-1694 suggests a history of migration driven by both disc and dynamical interactions.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

2 major / 1 minor

Summary. The paper reanalyzes the TOI-1272 and TOI-1694 systems with TESS photometry plus new HARPS-N and archival HIRES radial velocities. Joint fits are performed; for TOI-1272 these incorporate Gaussian-process regressions to model stellar activity. Refined orbital and physical parameters are reported for both systems. The HIRES RV signal previously interpreted as the non-transiting planet TOI-1272c is instead attributed entirely to activity, leading to retraction of that planet. The architecture of TOI-1694 is interpreted as evidence for mixed disc and dynamical migration.

Significance. If the GP-based attribution of the HIRES signal to activity is robust, the retraction removes a candidate from the hot-Neptune sample and strengthens the case for high-eccentricity migration of TOI-1272b. The work also supplies tighter constraints on two systems that can be used in population studies of close-in Neptunes.

major comments (2)
  1. [joint-fit analysis for TOI-1272 (abstract and methods description)] The retraction of TOI-1272c rests on the assertion that a GP regression fully accounts for the HIRES RV variation as stellar activity. The manuscript provides no Bayes-factor comparison between a GP-only model and a GP+Keplerian model at the previously reported planetary period, nor injection-recovery tests on the actual HIRES time series. Given that quasi-periodic kernels are known to be flexible enough to absorb low-amplitude periodic signals near the stellar rotation period, this omission leaves the central claim without a direct statistical demonstration.
  2. [Gaussian-process regressions for TOI-1272] The abstract states that the GP regressions were used “for carefully modelling stellar activity,” yet no details are given on kernel choice, hyperparameter priors, or convergence diagnostics that would allow an independent assessment of whether the activity model is over-flexible.
minor comments (1)
  1. [TOI-1694 results] The abstract refers to “slightly eccentric orbits” for TOI-1694b and c; the corresponding eccentricity values and their uncertainties should be stated explicitly in the text or a table so that the dynamical-migration interpretation can be evaluated quantitatively.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

2 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for their careful and constructive review. We address the major comments point by point below and will revise the manuscript accordingly to strengthen the statistical justification for our conclusions.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: [joint-fit analysis for TOI-1272 (abstract and methods description)] The retraction of TOI-1272c rests on the assertion that a GP regression fully accounts for the HIRES RV variation as stellar activity. The manuscript provides no Bayes-factor comparison between a GP-only model and a GP+Keplerian model at the previously reported planetary period, nor injection-recovery tests on the actual HIRES time series. Given that quasi-periodic kernels are known to be flexible enough to absorb low-amplitude periodic signals near the stellar rotation period, this omission leaves the central claim without a direct statistical demonstration.

    Authors: We agree that a Bayes-factor comparison and injection-recovery tests would provide a more direct statistical demonstration. In the revised manuscript we will add these analyses, including the computation of the Bayes factor between the GP-only and GP+Keplerian models at the reported period, as well as injection-recovery tests performed on the HIRES time series to quantify the risk that the GP absorbs a low-amplitude planetary signal. revision: yes

  2. Referee: [Gaussian-process regressions for TOI-1272] The abstract states that the GP regressions were used “for carefully modelling stellar activity,” yet no details are given on kernel choice, hyperparameter priors, or convergence diagnostics that would allow an independent assessment of whether the activity model is over-flexible.

    Authors: We acknowledge that additional details on the GP implementation are required for reproducibility and to address concerns about flexibility. The revised manuscript will expand the methods section to specify the kernel (quasi-periodic), the priors placed on all hyperparameters, and the convergence diagnostics employed (e.g., Gelman-Rubin statistics and autocorrelation times). revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No significant circularity; analysis relies on external RV and photometric datasets with standard GP modeling

full rationale

The paper performs joint fits to TESS photometry plus new HARPS-N and archival HIRES RVs, using Gaussian-process regression to model stellar activity in the TOI-1272 system. The retraction of TOI-1272c follows from the GP-only model accounting for the HIRES signal, but this is a data-driven model comparison on independent observations rather than a self-definitional loop, fitted input renamed as prediction, or load-bearing self-citation. No equations or steps reduce by construction to the target claim; the GP kernel choice is conventional and the result remains falsifiable against the raw time series. The derivation chain is therefore self-contained against external benchmarks.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

2 free parameters · 1 axioms · 0 invented entities

The central claim rests on standard assumptions in exoplanet radial velocity analysis and the fitting of multiple parameters to the combined photometric and spectroscopic data.

free parameters (2)
  • Gaussian process hyperparameters
    Fitted as part of modeling stellar activity in TOI-1272 RV data.
  • Orbital parameters (periods, eccentricities, masses)
    Fitted in the joint analysis for both systems.
axioms (1)
  • domain assumption Radial velocity signals from stellar activity can be modeled using Gaussian processes and distinguished from Keplerian planetary signals with sufficient data.
    Central to the reanalysis and retraction of TOI-1272c.

pith-pipeline@v0.9.1-grok · 5966 in / 1273 out tokens · 45376 ms · 2026-06-26T13:10:55.890784+00:00 · methodology

discussion (0)

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Reference graph

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