A new gravitational wave event reveals a binary black hole merger with total mass 190-265 solar masses, indicating black holes can form via gravitational-wave driven mergers beyond standard stellar channels.
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dynesty: A Dynamic Nested Sampling Package for Estimating Bayesian Posteriors and Evidences
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abstract
We present dynesty, a public, open-source, Python package to estimate Bayesian posteriors and evidences (marginal likelihoods) using Dynamic Nested Sampling. By adaptively allocating samples based on posterior structure, Dynamic Nested Sampling has the benefits of Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms that focus exclusively on posterior estimation while retaining Nested Sampling's ability to estimate evidences and sample from complex, multi-modal distributions. We provide an overview of Nested Sampling, its extension to Dynamic Nested Sampling, the algorithmic challenges involved, and the various approaches taken to solve them. We then examine dynesty's performance on a variety of toy problems along with several astronomical applications. We find in particular problems dynesty can provide substantial improvements in sampling efficiency compared to popular MCMC approaches in the astronomical literature. More detailed statistical results related to Nested Sampling are also included in the Appendix.
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representative citing papers
GW241011 data shows consistency with Kerr black holes for both quadrupole and octupole moments and delivers the first observational bounds on spin-induced octupole deviations.
The central compact object 1E 1207.4-5209 emits pulsed radio waves at its 0.4-second spin period, revealing it as a faint radio pulsar.
Native-resolution retrievals on 0.97-5.27 micron JWST spectra of VHS 1256 b find a ~79% cloud deck, solar-like metallicity and C/O, and depleted 18O in a partially cloudy disequilibrium atmosphere.
LRD host galaxies show average metallicity 0.08 Z_sun with narrow stable range, challenging pristine-gas formation models while ruling out typical local AGN.
All five NSBH events are consistent with zero line-of-sight acceleration; the joint posterior for GW200105_162426 disfavors both zero LOSA and zero eccentricity at 90% credibility.
Derives heuristic coverage bounds for MLFriends nested sampling under a Binomial point process model, claiming the bias is negligible compared to statistical variance.
Introduces MGIC_rv, an information criterion that combines conditional RV likelihood with an effective parameter count for selecting multi-GP models focused on radial velocities.
New frequency-domain models IMRPhenomXHM_NSBH, SEOBNRv5HM_ROM_NRTidalv3_NSBH, and IMRPhenomXPHM_NSBH bring higher-order modes and tidal effects to fast NSBH waveform templates.
Deep interferometric observations of a z≈1.12 barred spiral reveal bar-driven molecular inflows at a rate matching the galaxy's star formation rate of ~36 M⊙/yr.
A reference-frequency-independent detection statistic for eccentric binary mergers is introduced and applied to GW200105, yielding ln B ≤ 0.9 in favor of the eccentric aligned-spin model over the quasi-circular precessing model.
GreyRing model based on greybody factors reproduces numerical relativity ringdown signals with mismatches of order 10^{-6} and enables a new post-merger consistency test of general relativity applied to GW250114.
Presents a practical fully time-domain end-to-end likelihood for gravitational-wave inference with structured linear algebra and GPU acceleration.
LIGO and Virgo detected 39 compact binary coalescence events in O3a, including 13 new ones, with black hole binaries up to 150 solar masses and the first significantly asymmetric mass ratios.
UVJ colors saturate below log(sSFR) ~ -10.5; new UV/MIR color-color diagrams allow more efficient selection of galaxies with substantially lower ongoing star formation.
A hierarchical Bayesian inference framework combining free-spectrum reconstruction with population-level likelihoods distinguishes finite SMBHB populations from Gaussian primordial GWB using mock PTA data.
A hierarchical analysis of 69 GWTC-3 black-hole merger candidates yields an effective compactness consistent with C=0.5 and no evidence for a low-compactness exotic population.
No GWTC-3 event robustly prefers a non-BBH merger morphology once low-frequency cutoffs are raised; apparent low-compactness modes are noise artifacts, with GW231123 left as an unresolved special case.
Panchromatic JWST spectrum of WASP-121 b detects SiO and measures refractory-to-volatile ratios 3x stellar, consistent with mixed solid-gas accretion or migration with continued solid accretion.
Bayesian analysis of astrophysical and laboratory data favors the two-families scenario of coexisting hadronic and strange quark stars over the one-family scenario.
Mode-by-mode filtering of higher-order modes enables low-latency marginalization over mode information in NSBH gravitational-wave signals, tightening constraints on distance, inclination, and secondary mass.
Two LIGO transients are consistent with domain wall signals from a shared scalar field but binary black hole models remain favored, with a morphological degeneracy identified.
TOI-3664 b, TOI-4034 b, and TOI-6564 b are three newly characterized hot Jupiters around terminal-age main-sequence stars, with sub-Jupiter masses and inflated radii.
SEOBNRv6EHM reduces parameter biases for eccentric binaries versus prior models and shows mild support for eccentricity in five catalog events plus comparable unbound fits for three high-mass events.
citing papers explorer
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GW231123: a Binary Black Hole Merger with Total Mass 190-265 $M_{\odot}$
A new gravitational wave event reveals a binary black hole merger with total mass 190-265 solar masses, indicating black holes can form via gravitational-wave driven mergers beyond standard stellar channels.
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Testing the Kerr hypothesis beyond the quadrupole with GW241011
GW241011 data shows consistency with Kerr black holes for both quadrupole and octupole moments and delivers the first observational bounds on spin-induced octupole deviations.
-
Pulsed radio emission from a Central Compact Object
The central compact object 1E 1207.4-5209 emits pulsed radio waves at its 0.4-second spin period, revealing it as a faint radio pulsar.
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Native-resolution retrievals of VHS 1256-1257 b spanning the JWST/NIRSpec wavelength range: Chemical composition of a partially cloudy atmosphere
Native-resolution retrievals on 0.97-5.27 micron JWST spectra of VHS 1256 b find a ~79% cloud deck, solar-like metallicity and C/O, and depleted 18O in a partially cloudy disequilibrium atmosphere.
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The metallicities of little red dot host galaxies: LRDs are metal poor, but not pristine
LRD host galaxies show average metallicity 0.08 Z_sun with narrow stable range, challenging pristine-gas formation models while ruling out typical local AGN.
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Joint inference of line-of-sight acceleration and orbital eccentricity in neutron-star--black-hole binaries
All five NSBH events are consistent with zero line-of-sight acceleration; the joint posterior for GW200105_162426 disfavors both zero LOSA and zero eccentricity at 90% credibility.
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First analytical coverage bounds of a fully specified nested sampling algorithm
Derives heuristic coverage bounds for MLFriends nested sampling under a Binomial point process model, claiming the bias is negligible compared to statistical variance.
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A Model Selection Criterion for Multidimensional Gaussian Processes: Application to Radial Velocities
Introduces MGIC_rv, an information criterion that combines conditional RV likelihood with an effective parameter count for selecting multi-GP models focused on radial velocities.
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Fast gravitational waveform models for quasi-circular coalescences of neutron star--black hole binaries
New frequency-domain models IMRPhenomXHM_NSBH, SEOBNRv5HM_ROM_NRTidalv3_NSBH, and IMRPhenomXPHM_NSBH bring higher-order modes and tidal effects to fast NSBH waveform templates.
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NOEMA$^\rm{3D}$: A deep view of cold gas flows in a barred spiral galaxy at $z\sim1$
Deep interferometric observations of a z≈1.12 barred spiral reveal bar-driven molecular inflows at a rate matching the galaxy's star formation rate of ~36 M⊙/yr.
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A universal framework to identify eccentric binary mergers: GW200105 case study
A reference-frequency-independent detection statistic for eccentric binary mergers is introduced and applied to GW200105, yielding ln B ≤ 0.9 in favor of the eccentric aligned-spin model over the quasi-circular precessing model.
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Novel ringdown tests of general relativity with black hole greybody factors
GreyRing model based on greybody factors reproduces numerical relativity ringdown signals with mismatches of order 10^{-6} and enables a new post-merger consistency test of general relativity applied to GW250114.
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Accelerated Time-domain Analysis for Gravitational Wave Astronomy
Presents a practical fully time-domain end-to-end likelihood for gravitational-wave inference with structured linear algebra and GPU acceleration.
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GWTC-2: Compact Binary Coalescences Observed by LIGO and Virgo During the First Half of the Third Observing Run
LIGO and Virgo detected 39 compact binary coalescence events in O3a, including 13 new ones, with black hole binaries up to 150 solar masses and the first significantly asymmetric mass ratios.
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Beyond UVJ: More Efficient Selection of Quiescent Galaxies With UV / Mid-IR Fluxes
UVJ colors saturate below log(sSFR) ~ -10.5; new UV/MIR color-color diagrams allow more efficient selection of galaxies with substantially lower ongoing star formation.
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Population statistics of nanohertz gravitational wave sources
A hierarchical Bayesian inference framework combining free-spectrum reconstruction with population-level likelihoods distinguishes finite SMBHB populations from Gaussian primordial GWB using mock PTA data.
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Establishing Compactness as a Population Observable in Gravitational-Wave Astronomy
A hierarchical analysis of 69 GWTC-3 black-hole merger candidates yields an effective compactness consistent with C=0.5 and no evidence for a low-compactness exotic population.
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Compactness Inference in Gravitational-Wave Mergers with PhenomDECO: Catalog Benchmarks and Robustness Diagnostics
No GWTC-3 event robustly prefers a non-BBH merger morphology once low-frequency cutoffs are raised; apparent low-compactness modes are noise artifacts, with GW231123 left as an unresolved special case.
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The panchromatic JWST dayside spectrum of WASP-121 b reveals a refractory-rich formation
Panchromatic JWST spectrum of WASP-121 b detects SiO and measures refractory-to-volatile ratios 3x stellar, consistent with mixed solid-gas accretion or migration with continued solid accretion.
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Is the coexistence of strange quark stars and hadronic stars favored by astrophysical data? A Bayesian analysis
Bayesian analysis of astrophysical and laboratory data favors the two-families scenario of coexisting hadronic and strange quark stars over the one-family scenario.
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Improving low-latency multi-messenger follow-up of neutron star-black hole mergers with mode-by-mode filtering
Mode-by-mode filtering of higher-order modes enables low-latency marginalization over mode information in NSBH gravitational-wave signals, tightening constraints on distance, inclination, and secondary mass.
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Short Gravitational-Wave Transients as Probes of Cosmic Domain Walls
Two LIGO transients are consistent with domain wall signals from a shared scalar field but binary black hole models remain favored, with a morphological degeneracy identified.
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TOI-3664 b, TOI-4034 b & TOI-6564 b: Three new hot Jupiters around stars approaching the terminal age main sequence
TOI-3664 b, TOI-4034 b, and TOI-6564 b are three newly characterized hot Jupiters around terminal-age main-sequence stars, with sub-Jupiter masses and inflated radii.
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Eccentric and unbound compact binaries in the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA catalog: parameter estimation and waveform systematics with SEOBNRv6EHM
SEOBNRv6EHM reduces parameter biases for eccentric binaries versus prior models and shows mild support for eccentricity in five catalog events plus comparable unbound fits for three high-mass events.
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Feedback driven interactions between dark and luminous matter to explain tight galaxy scaling relations
NIHAO simulations reproduce the Rd-r0 relation and its mild evolution from z=2 to z=0 through stellar feedback without dark matter modifications.
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Constraints on primordial black holes from the first part of LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA fourth observing run
O4a gravitational-wave data give 95% CL upper limits f_PBH ~ 1e-2 to 1e-4 for monochromatic primordial black holes with mean masses 0.6-100 M_sun, with no evidence of a PBH merger component.
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Quenching of X-ray emission in little red dots by both Compton-thick gas and high accretion rates
X-ray non-detection of little red dots requires both Compton-thick gas columns (~1e25 cm^-2) and intrinsically weak X-ray emission with bolometric correction k_bol,X ≳ 30.
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Gravitational-wave astronomy requires population-informed parameter estimation
Single-event GW parameter estimates under reference priors are population-biased; hierarchical, population-informed re-analysis is needed and changes the identification of the most extreme black holes in the catalog.
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Fast neural network surrogate for multimodal effective-one-body gravitational waveforms from generically precessing compact binaries
Neural network surrogate approximates precessing compact binary gravitational waveforms up to 1000x faster than the base EOB model with validated accuracy.
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GW231123: False Massive Graviton Signatures from Unmodeled Point-Mass Lensing
Unmodeled point-mass lensing produces a spurious nonzero graviton mass posterior in GW231123 that vanishes when lensing is included in the analysis.
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Posterior Predictive Checks for Gravitational-wave Populations: Limitations and Improvements
Maximum-likelihood-based posterior predictive checks detect model misspecification better than event-level versions for uncertain spin tilts, but current detector sensitivity limits their power; the Gaussian Component Spins model underpredicts high spin magnitudes and overpredicts anti-aligned tilts
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Measurement prospects for the pair-instability mass cutoff with gravitational waves
Simulations show a 40-50 solar-mass black-hole cutoff is not guaranteed to be confidently recovered from GWTC-4-like catalogs, spurious detections are unlikely, and O4 data would reduce cutoff-mass uncertainty by at least 20 percent while yielding only a lower bound on the carbon-alpha reaction rate
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Plunge-Merger-Ringdown Tests of General Relativity with GW250114
GW250114 data constrains GR deviations in merger amplitude to 10% and frequency to 4% at 90% CL, with first bounds on the (4,4) mode frequency at 6%.
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Signatures of a subpopulation of hierarchical mergers in the GWTC-4 gravitational-wave dataset
Using a joint effective-spin and precession-spin model on 155 gravitational-wave events, the authors infer that the hierarchical (second-generation) merger fraction rises sharply above ~46 M_sun and peaks again near 15.7 M_sun.
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Scalar fields around black hole binaries in LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA
Semi-analytic waveform model for scalar environments around black hole binaries is validated against numerical relativity and applied to LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA data to obtain upper limits on scalar densities with tentative evidence in GW190728.
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Black Hole Spectroscopy and Tests of General Relativity with GW250114
GW250114 data confirm the remnant is consistent with a Kerr black hole and bound the dominant quadrupolar mode frequency to within a few percent of the GR prediction, with constraints tighter than prior multi-event catalogs.
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Evidence for eccentricity in the population of binary black holes observed by LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA
Bayesian inference on LVK O1-O3 events with eccentric aligned-spin waveforms yields log10 Bayes factors of 1.77-4.75 favoring eccentricity for GW200129, GW190701 and GW200208_22, and >99.5% probability that at least one of 57 events is eccentric under an astrophysically motivated rate prior.
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Constraints on Horndeski Gravity with Phantom Crossing
Asymptotic Cubic Galileon models can fit Planck+DESI+DES expansion history with phantom crossing and are tightly constrained by galaxy-ISW and void-force observables.
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Prospect for Detection of Strongly Lensed Multi-messenger Signals of Binary Neutron Star Mergers
Future CE+ET detectors may detect lensed BNS kilonovae at ~0.5/yr via pointed follow-up of known galaxy lenses, while lensed sGRBs and afterglows remain rare or undetectable with current-generation facilities.
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No Evidence for Superradiant Axions in LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA GWTC-5 Binary Black Hole Spins
Hierarchical Bayesian analysis of GWTC-5 binary black hole spins finds no evidence for superradiant axions and excludes masses 1.7e-14 to 3.3e-12 eV at 95% CL.
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Understanding eccentric temperate giants: an in-depth study of the architecture and stellar obliquity of the TOI-2134 system
New data break the eccentricity multimodality of TOI-2134 c to e=0.31±0.01, refine both planets' masses and radii, and yield a 4.7σ RM obliquity of 59±31° for planet c.
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A parametric signal plus noise inference framework for short duration non-Gaussian noise transients
Bilby-antiglitch jointly models astrophysical signals and quasi-physical glitches to recover true source properties from simulated gravitational wave data contaminated by loud non-Gaussian transients.
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A hidden reionization prior biases cosmological inference
No monotonic reionization history fits Planck τ, patchy kSZ from SPT/ACT, and Lyα endpoint; an early ionization phase at z≳12 relaxes ∑mν<0.39 eV and shifts σ8 via As-τ degeneracy.
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EP251023a: A fast X-ray transient featuring a magnetar-powered optical internal plateau followed by a steep decay
EP251023a is a new extragalactic fast X-ray transient whose optical light curve is interpreted as a rare magnetar-powered internal plateau with derived upper limits on spin period and magnetic field.
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Impact of the Einstein Telescope's duty cycle on the estimation of binary black holes parameters
ET-Δ outperforms ET-2L on luminosity distance and source-frame masses for BBH events because its redundancy produces higher multi-detector uptime under realistic duty-cycle modeling.
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Stellar Obliquities of Young Systems, Atmospheres Undergoing Contraction and Escape (SOYSAUCE) II: a 135 Myr planet on an aligned orbit with transit timing variations
Validation of a 135 Myr, 3.6 R_E transiting planet with aligned obliquity and TTV evidence for a near-resonant companion.
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Line-of-sight acceleration in compact binaries with higher harmonics and eccentricity
Implements consistent line-of-sight acceleration corrections in quasi-circular and eccentric GW waveform models, applies them to GWTC-3 events, and reports no substantial evidence for acceleration while warning of bias from inconsistent harmonic treatment.
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The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Probing new signatures of ultralight axions with gravitational lensing
New upper limits on ultralight axion dark matter fraction (<1.5% at 10^{-26} eV, <9% at 10^{-25} eV at 95% CL) from combined CMB lensing data, plus marginal 2.1σ preference at 10^{-24.5} eV driven by few points.
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Speed and accuracy for long signals: Frequency-domain effective-one-body waveforms for compact binary coalescences
Hybrid SPA-plus-FFT frequency-domain version of SEOBNRv5THM for quasi-circular spin-aligned BNS systems matches time-domain baseline accuracy while cutting computational cost for long signals.
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JWST Advanced Deep Extragalactic Survey (JADES) Data Release 5: stellar population catalogue for galaxies in GOODS-N and GOODS-S
JADES DR5 delivers a public catalog of Bayesian-inferred stellar masses, SFRs, SFHs, dust, metallicities, and AGN contributions for ~500k galaxies via Prospector with an evolving SFMS prior.