Paper Citation Record · LEDGER

Probabilities of Chat LLMs Are Miscalibrated but Still Predict Correctness on Multiple-Choice Q&A

As of 8 August 2026, this Paper Citation Record lists 0 of 0 outbound references and 11 inbound Pith citation observations for arXiv:2402.13213.

A citation records a reference. It does not transfer a finding from one paper to another.

pith.paper-citation-record.v1
2402.13213 v4

Coverage vector

measured 0 of 0 reference resolution

Typed states for the displayed outbound observations.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links

measured 11 of 11 standing notices

One-hop event checks from named stored sources.

Source: scholarly_work_events, retraction_status_cache, observed 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00

measured 11 of 11 inbound itemization

Pith citing papers itemized under the disclosed page cap.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-08-07T15:09:36.447956Z

measured 0 of 1 external citation measurements

A source-named dated measurement, never combined with another source.

Source: arxiv_reference, observed 2026-07-02T21:07:23.912546Z

Reference resolution

0 of 0 outbound references displayed

verified exact0
verified fuzzy0
unresolved0
parse uncertain0
malformed identifier0
metadata mismatch0

External citation measurements

No source-named external measurement is stored.

Outbound references

No outbound reference observations are available for this paper version.

Pith citing papers

Observation 6b3a3b5c-f38f-44e4-8fee-2de7ebce61bd · inbound

Enhancing Trust in Large Language Models via Uncertainty-Calibrated Fine-Tuning cites this paper.

Enhancing Trust in Large Language Models via Uncertainty-Calibrated Fine-Tuning Probabilities of Chat LLMs Are Miscalibrated but Still Predict Correctness on Multiple-Choice Q&A

Reference 53

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-23T07:47:42.669613Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

Observation 78a6a99f-2285-48aa-817a-140b6cece409 · inbound

Rethinking Uncertainty Estimation in LLMs: A Principled Single-Sequence Measure cites this paper.

Rethinking Uncertainty Estimation in LLMs: A Principled Single-Sequence Measure Probabilities of Chat LLMs Are Miscalibrated but Still Predict Correctness on Multiple-Choice Q&A

Reference 14

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-23T06:22:38.186542Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

Observation d77c015c-0fb6-4b89-81cc-ca57c5ff6e60 · inbound

Resilient LLM-Empowered Semantic MAC Protocols via Zero-Shot Adaptation and Knowledge Distillation cites this paper.

Resilient LLM-Empowered Semantic MAC Protocols via Zero-Shot Adaptation and Knowledge Distillation Probabilities of Chat LLMs Are Miscalibrated but Still Predict Correctness on Multiple-Choice Q&A

Reference 26

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-07T15:09:36.447956Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 48e9aed8-a786-4985-8e97-ca104f4f2d9b · inbound

Shapley Uncertainty in Natural Language Generation cites this paper.

Shapley Uncertainty in Natural Language Generation Probabilities of Chat LLMs Are Miscalibrated but Still Predict Correctness on Multiple-Choice Q&A

Reference 2021

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T12:55:57.711866Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 62e24b5d-6bee-4a4e-b606-6396c400275f · inbound

Causal Evidence that Language Models use Confidence to Drive Behavior cites this paper.

Causal Evidence that Language Models use Confidence to Drive Behavior Probabilities of Chat LLMs Are Miscalibrated but Still Predict Correctness on Multiple-Choice Q&A

Reference 13

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-21T09:44:05.679600Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

Observation 41208fd2-6bb0-40be-981e-f0c1201f221c · inbound

Calibrating Model-Based Evaluation Metrics for Summarization cites this paper.

Calibrating Model-Based Evaluation Metrics for Summarization Probabilities of Chat LLMs Are Miscalibrated but Still Predict Correctness on Multiple-Choice Q&A

Reference 67

Resolution: metadata mismatch; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-10T06:41:37.021662Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

Observation a2506d7f-6ae5-4966-9f74-774be58d8d5c · inbound

Instance-Adaptive Online Multicalibration cites this paper.

Instance-Adaptive Online Multicalibration Probabilities of Chat LLMs Are Miscalibrated but Still Predict Correctness on Multiple-Choice Q&A

Reference 30

Resolution: metadata mismatch; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-12T05:56:40.742330Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

Observation 8682f582-6878-4837-bdb2-f5c8047ba853 · inbound

Instance-Adaptive Online Multicalibration cites this paper.

Instance-Adaptive Online Multicalibration Probabilities of Chat LLMs Are Miscalibrated but Still Predict Correctness on Multiple-Choice Q&A

Reference 30

Resolution: metadata mismatch; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-22T09:41:21.584990Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

Observation ca86e480-9f27-48d4-84b8-949bc233cd15 · inbound

Task-Aware Calibration: Provably Optimal Decoding in LLMs cites this paper.

Task-Aware Calibration: Provably Optimal Decoding in LLMs Probabilities of Chat LLMs Are Miscalibrated but Still Predict Correctness on Multiple-Choice Q&A

Reference 39

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-12T02:56:18.701791Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

Observation fc9ccb72-0e16-4a51-a59c-c0eda646e3c9 · inbound

PromptNCE: Pointwise Mutual Information Predictions Using Only LLMs and Contrastive Estimation Prompts cites this paper.

PromptNCE: Pointwise Mutual Information Predictions Using Only LLMs and Contrastive Estimation Prompts Probabilities of Chat LLMs Are Miscalibrated but Still Predict Correctness on Multiple-Choice Q&A

Reference 27

Resolution: metadata mismatch; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-22T08:46:18.168776Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

Observation 96734832-56cb-42d8-90c9-2cd72e1a68b6 · inbound

ConSteer-RL: Steering Reasoning Capabilities in Large Language Models via Confidence-Aware Reinforcement Learning cites this paper.

ConSteer-RL: Steering Reasoning Capabilities in Large Language Models via Confidence-Aware Reinforcement Learning Probabilities of Chat LLMs Are Miscalibrated but Still Predict Correctness on Multiple-Choice Q&A

Reference 10

Resolution: metadata mismatch; arxiv_id, observed 2026-07-02T21:07:23.914209Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.