Rank fluctuations of matrix products and a moment method for growing groups

We consider the cokernel $G_n = \mathbf{Cok}(A_{k} \cdots A_2 A_1)$ of a product of independent $n \times n$ random integer matrices with iid entries from generic nondegenerate distributions, in the regime where both $n$ and $k$ are sent to $\infty$ simultaneously. In this regime we show that the cokernel statistics converge universally to the reflecting Poisson sea, an interacting particle system constructed in arXiv:2312.11702, at the level of $1$-point marginals. In particular, $\operatorname{corank}(A_{k} \cdots A_2 A_1 \pmod{p}) \sim \log_p k$, and its fluctuations are $O(1)$ and converge to a discrete random variable defined in arXiv:2310.12275. The main difference with previous works studying cokernels of random matrices is that $G_n$ does not converge to a random finite group; for instance, the $p$-rank of $G_n$ diverges. This means that the usual moment method for random groups does not apply. Instead, we proceed by proving a `rescaled moment method' theorem applicable to a general sequence of random groups of growing size. This result establishes that fluctuations of $p$-ranks and other statistics still converge to limit random variables, provided that certain rescaled moments $\mathbb{E}[\#\operatorname{Hom}(G_n,H)]/C(n,H)$ converge.