Paper Citation Record · LEDGER

Do Large Language Models Know Conflict? Investigating Parametric vs. Non-Parametric Knowledge of LLMs for Conflict Forecasting

As of 18 August 2026, this Paper Citation Record lists 27 of 27 outbound references and 1 inbound Pith citation observation for arXiv:2505.09852.

A citation records a reference. It does not transfer a finding from one paper to another.

pith.paper-citation-record.v1
2505.09852 v1

Coverage vector

measured 27 of 27 reference resolution

Typed states for the displayed outbound observations.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-08-15T21:26:50.959010Z

measured 28 of 28 standing notices

One-hop event checks from named stored sources.

Source: scholarly_work_events, retraction_status_cache, observed 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00

measured 1 of 1 inbound itemization

Pith citing papers itemized under the disclosed page cap.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-07-02T22:48:25.736231Z

measured 0 of 1 external citation measurements

A source-named dated measurement, never combined with another source.

Source: arxiv_reference, observed 2026-07-02T22:57:25.761917Z

Reference resolution

27 of 27 outbound references displayed

verified exact2
verified fuzzy0
unresolved24
parse uncertain0
malformed identifier0
metadata mismatch1

External citation measurements

No source-named external measurement is stored.

Outbound references

Observation 9e052242-9a86-4779-ad55-f925f70b28b8 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Do Large Language Models Know Conflict? Investigating Parametric vs. Non-Parametric Knowledge of LLMs for Conflict Forecasting Unresolved cited work

Reference 1

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-15T21:26:51.543041Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation b5e186bf-ad74-48ab-baf9-6a5d837dbca0 · outbound

This paper cites A Comprehensive Evaluation of Large Language Models on Temporal Event Forecasting.

Do Large Language Models Know Conflict? Investigating Parametric vs. Non-Parametric Knowledge of LLMs for Conflict Forecasting A Comprehensive Evaluation of Large Language Models on Temporal Event Forecasting

Reference 2

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-15T21:26:50.826391Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 49695f8c-6966-4dfa-827d-c30abc3c8153 · outbound

This paper cites From Newswire to Nexus: Using text-based actor embeddings and transformer networks to forecast conflict dynamics.

Do Large Language Models Know Conflict? Investigating Parametric vs. Non-Parametric Knowledge of LLMs for Conflict Forecasting From Newswire to Nexus: Using text-based actor embeddings and transformer networks to forecast conflict dynamics

Reference 3

Resolution: verified exact; local_arxiv, observed 2026-08-15T21:26:51.324624Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation 16d4b332-993b-4d42-8d2e-44da9d07af31 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Do Large Language Models Know Conflict? Investigating Parametric vs. Non-Parametric Knowledge of LLMs for Conflict Forecasting Unresolved cited work

Reference 4

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-15T21:26:51.526367Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation 7d1cf7b5-dba7-4d62-a97c-99010f2ded4e · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Do Large Language Models Know Conflict? Investigating Parametric vs. Non-Parametric Knowledge of LLMs for Conflict Forecasting Unresolved cited work

Reference 5

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-15T21:26:51.509584Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation c0b76657-0810-460a-8c86-b09e6c0e4725 · outbound

This paper cites Event knowledge in large language models: the gap between the impossible and the unlikely.

Do Large Language Models Know Conflict? Investigating Parametric vs. Non-Parametric Knowledge of LLMs for Conflict Forecasting Event knowledge in large language models: the gap between the impossible and the unlikely

Reference 6

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-15T21:26:50.848351Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation f8902aae-35b6-4933-a105-6c837281b311 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Do Large Language Models Know Conflict? Investigating Parametric vs. Non-Parametric Knowledge of LLMs for Conflict Forecasting Unresolved cited work

Reference 7

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-15T21:26:50.854515Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation df8ea0df-9d74-4381-9df3-d344ac63571c · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Do Large Language Models Know Conflict? Investigating Parametric vs. Non-Parametric Knowledge of LLMs for Conflict Forecasting Unresolved cited work

Reference 8

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-15T21:26:50.859829Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 7032d128-1263-4433-8cb5-b6e0abc2f818 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Do Large Language Models Know Conflict? Investigating Parametric vs. Non-Parametric Knowledge of LLMs for Conflict Forecasting Unresolved cited work

Reference 9

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-15T21:26:51.482187Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation 9074f6df-1295-46d7-8f9f-e616c08064b5 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Do Large Language Models Know Conflict? Investigating Parametric vs. Non-Parametric Knowledge of LLMs for Conflict Forecasting Unresolved cited work

Reference 10

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-15T21:26:51.465180Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation 5c37e85d-4446-49d8-a030-5be1a9f81ce4 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Do Large Language Models Know Conflict? Investigating Parametric vs. Non-Parametric Knowledge of LLMs for Conflict Forecasting Unresolved cited work

Reference 11

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-15T21:26:51.447665Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation 5bfd6ecb-26a7-49e6-9026-f9f9681cdc45 · outbound

This paper cites Detecting Human Rights Violations on Social Media during Russia-Ukraine War.

Do Large Language Models Know Conflict? Investigating Parametric vs. Non-Parametric Knowledge of LLMs for Conflict Forecasting Detecting Human Rights Violations on Social Media during Russia-Ukraine War

Reference 12

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-15T21:26:50.881925Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation aed8fd82-fb5f-4893-8778-a66767f3478b · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Do Large Language Models Know Conflict? Investigating Parametric vs. Non-Parametric Knowledge of LLMs for Conflict Forecasting Unresolved cited work

Reference 13

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-15T21:26:50.887185Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 3cf497e8-468d-49cd-9304-cbe7be56bf4d · outbound

This paper cites Rød, Håvard Hegre, and M.

Do Large Language Models Know Conflict? Investigating Parametric vs. Non-Parametric Knowledge of LLMs for Conflict Forecasting Rød, Håvard Hegre, and M

Reference 14

Resolution: verified exact; doi, observed 2026-08-15T21:26:51.056167Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation 5c9a41e7-62ac-4872-8d24-bbc801d92308 · outbound

This paper cites Retrieval Augmented Time Series Forecasting.

Do Large Language Models Know Conflict? Investigating Parametric vs. Non-Parametric Knowledge of LLMs for Conflict Forecasting Retrieval Augmented Time Series Forecasting

Reference 15

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-15T21:26:50.897367Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 7f1b5bd9-195b-4637-aaf5-5309bc9c64af · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Do Large Language Models Know Conflict? Investigating Parametric vs. Non-Parametric Knowledge of LLMs for Conflict Forecasting Unresolved cited work

Reference 16

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-15T21:26:51.431828Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation 72b1220e-24d9-4f8e-88ed-b0d45a8afe72 · outbound

This paper cites Self-Knowledge Guided Retrieval Augmentation for Large Language Models.

Do Large Language Models Know Conflict? Investigating Parametric vs. Non-Parametric Knowledge of LLMs for Conflict Forecasting Self-Knowledge Guided Retrieval Augmentation for Large Language Models

Reference 17

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-15T21:26:50.907789Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 41616ca8-be48-426f-bd03-0c91f6af742b · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Do Large Language Models Know Conflict? Investigating Parametric vs. Non-Parametric Knowledge of LLMs for Conflict Forecasting Unresolved cited work

Reference 18

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-15T21:26:51.415081Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation d4cdb97a-fcab-4af7-95ba-c41fab8545c2 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Do Large Language Models Know Conflict? Investigating Parametric vs. Non-Parametric Knowledge of LLMs for Conflict Forecasting Unresolved cited work

Reference 19

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-15T21:26:51.399442Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation d0f0da64-7234-49be-b479-2e263dfd9c67 · outbound

This paper cites Knowledge Conflicts for LLMs: A Survey.

Do Large Language Models Know Conflict? Investigating Parametric vs. Non-Parametric Knowledge of LLMs for Conflict Forecasting Knowledge Conflicts for LLMs: A Survey

Reference 20

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-15T21:26:50.922977Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation f2b69aca-b4bc-47d8-bed5-9d76a16d312b · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Do Large Language Models Know Conflict? Investigating Parametric vs. Non-Parametric Knowledge of LLMs for Conflict Forecasting Unresolved cited work

Reference 21

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-15T21:26:51.382459Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation 513a661c-5be1-412c-a908-0f0dcd963de5 · outbound

This paper cites MIRAI: Evaluating LLM Agents for Event Forecasting.

Do Large Language Models Know Conflict? Investigating Parametric vs. Non-Parametric Knowledge of LLMs for Conflict Forecasting MIRAI: Evaluating LLM Agents for Event Forecasting

Reference 22

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-15T21:26:50.932989Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation f2d4ecc9-4627-47c9-b343-351fcacee672 · outbound

This paper cites Temporal Data Meets LLM -- Explainable Financial Time Series Forecasting.

Do Large Language Models Know Conflict? Investigating Parametric vs. Non-Parametric Knowledge of LLMs for Conflict Forecasting Temporal Data Meets LLM -- Explainable Financial Time Series Forecasting

Reference 23

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-15T21:26:50.938235Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 8871988e-b814-49f5-80d3-aa2ef73a355e · outbound

This paper cites Evaluating the External and Parametric Knowledge Fusion of Large Language Models.

Do Large Language Models Know Conflict? Investigating Parametric vs. Non-Parametric Knowledge of LLMs for Conflict Forecasting Evaluating the External and Parametric Knowledge Fusion of Large Language Models

Reference 24

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-15T21:26:50.943496Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 505f2d00-ac4c-4c10-a087-8eae373e2e18 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Do Large Language Models Know Conflict? Investigating Parametric vs. Non-Parametric Knowledge of LLMs for Conflict Forecasting Unresolved cited work

Reference 25

Resolution: metadata mismatch; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-15T21:26:51.167666Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation f5176c10-4130-4974-ba42-0176d79ea513 · outbound

This paper cites online" 'onlinestring :=.

Do Large Language Models Know Conflict? Investigating Parametric vs. Non-Parametric Knowledge of LLMs for Conflict Forecasting online" 'onlinestring :=

Reference 26

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-15T21:26:50.953589Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 6c280b61-d1e5-4847-b5b4-5a19a69b3c05 · outbound

This paper cites write newline.

Do Large Language Models Know Conflict? Investigating Parametric vs. Non-Parametric Knowledge of LLMs for Conflict Forecasting write newline

Reference 27

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-15T21:26:50.959010Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Pith citing papers

Observation a3059986-556e-4c98-bdd7-8ce7285fa0d5 · inbound

The Limits of LLM Forecasting: Parametric Knowledge Gaps Across Conflict Zones cites this paper.

The Limits of LLM Forecasting: Parametric Knowledge Gaps Across Conflict Zones Do Large Language Models Know Conflict? Investigating Parametric vs. Non-Parametric Knowledge of LLMs for Conflict Forecasting

Reference 27

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-07-02T22:57:25.763440Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.