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arxiv: 2512.03132 · v2 · submitted 2025-12-02 · 🌌 astro-ph.GA

Recognition: 2 theorem links

· Lean Theorem

The DREAMS Project: Disentangling the Impact of Halo-to-Halo Variance and Baryonic Feedback on Milky Way Dark Matter Density Profiles

Alex M. Garcia , Jonah C. Rose , Paul Torrey , Andrea Caputo , Mariangela Lisanti , Andrew B. Pace , Hongwan Liu , Abdelaziz Hussein
show 18 more authors
Haozhe Liu Francisco Villaescusa-Navarro John Barry Ilem Leisher Bel\'en Costanza Jonathan Kho Ethan Lilie Jiaxuan Li Niusha Ahvazi Aklant Bhowmick Tri Nguyen Stephanie O'Neil Xiaowei Ou Xuejian Shen Arya Farahi Nitya Kallivayalil Lina Necib Mark Vogelsberger
Authors on Pith no claims yet

Pith reviewed 2026-05-17 01:49 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 🌌 astro-ph.GA
keywords Milky Way dark matterdensity profileshalo-to-halo variancebaryonic feedbackIllustrisTNGDREAMS simulationsdark matter searches
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The pith

Milky Way dark matter density profiles show little response to feedback and cosmology changes, with halo-to-halo variance driving most scatter.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper simulates 1024 Milky Way-mass halos while varying supernova feedback, black hole feedback, and two cosmological parameters inside the IllustrisTNG model. It finds that these changes produce only small shifts in the dark matter density profiles, whereas the differences between separate halos produce much larger scatter. A reader cares because the Milky Way dark matter profile sets the expected signal strength in direct-detection and indirect-detection experiments. The work also shows that the strongest supernova winds can suppress galaxy formation so completely that the halos behave almost like pure dark-matter systems, and that the profiles remain consistent with simple adiabatic contraction from the baryons.

Core claim

For the DREAMS parameter variations, Milky Way-mass dark matter density profiles in the IllustrisTNG model are largely insensitive to astrophysics and cosmology variations, with the dominant source of scatter instead arising from halo-to-halo variance. Most of the comparatively minor feedback-driven variations come from the changes to supernova prescriptions. By comparing to dark-matter-only simulations, the strongest supernova wind energies are found to prevent galaxy formation so effectively that the halos are nearly entirely collisionless dark matter. Regardless of physics variation, all the DREAMS halos are roughly consistent with a halo contracting adiabatically from the presence of the

What carries the argument

The DREAMS suite of 1024 Milky Way-mass halo simulations that vary IllustrisTNG supernova and black-hole feedback parameters plus two cosmological parameters, compared against dark-matter-only runs to isolate effects on the inner density profile.

If this is right

  • Uncertainties in Milky Way dark matter density for particle searches are dominated by halo-to-halo variance rather than uncertainties in feedback modeling.
  • Strong supernova feedback can produce halos that are essentially collisionless, matching dark-matter-only expectations.
  • Dark matter profiles remain consistent with adiabatic contraction from baryons rather than the cores produced by bursty feedback.
  • Systematic errors in density-profile predictions for the Milky Way can be reduced by sampling many independent halos instead of refining feedback parameters further.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • Larger suites that sample hundreds of halos per parameter set would be needed to quantify the halo-variance contribution more precisely.
  • If halo variance continues to dominate in other galaxy-formation models, the result would suggest that profile uncertainties are largely model-independent at Milky Way masses.
  • Direct-detection experiments could treat the Milky Way profile uncertainty as a statistical average over many possible host halos rather than a systematic tied to feedback calibration.

Load-bearing premise

The chosen ranges of supernova and black hole feedback parameters, plus the two cosmological parameters, are sufficient to capture the full plausible impact of baryonic physics on the dark matter profiles.

What would settle it

A direct measurement or dynamical inference of the Milky Way dark matter density profile that lies well outside the range spanned by all 1024 DREAMS halos across the explored parameter variations would falsify the claim that feedback effects are subdominant.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2512.03132 by Abdelaziz Hussein, Aklant Bhowmick, Alex M. Garcia, Andrea Caputo, Andrew B. Pace, Arya Farahi, Bel\'en Costanza, Ethan Lilie, Francisco Villaescusa-Navarro, Haozhe Liu, Hongwan Liu, Ilem Leisher, Jiaxuan Li, John Barry, Jonah C. Rose, Jonathan Kho, Lina Necib, Mariangela Lisanti, Mark Vogelsberger, Nitya Kallivayalil, Niusha Ahvazi, Paul Torrey, Stephanie O'Neil, Tri Nguyen, Xiaowei Ou, Xuejian Shen.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Milky Way Mass Dark Matter Halos from the SB5 DREAMS CDM Suite. [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p007_1.png] view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: Dark Matter Density Profiles in the DREAMS CDM Milky Way-Mass Suite. [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p009_2.png] view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: Dependence of generalized NFW scale density ( [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p011_3.png] view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Dependence of generalized NFW shape parameters on ¯ew. Predictions from our neural network emulator for the dependence of the inner slope (γ; dot-dashed line), transition rate (α; dashed line), and outer slope (β) of the best-fit gNFW profiles on the supernova wind energy (e¯w). As a point of reference, the dotted gray lines show the canonical NFW profile values (α = γ = 1 and β = 3). The short vertical so… view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: Properties of Central Galaxy. Predictions from our emulator for the scaling of the stellar mass (left two panels) and black hole mass (right panel) of the Milky Way-mass halo’s central galaxy with the DREAMS astrophysics variations. The three lines represent predictions from our ensemble of emulators at MHalo = 1011.8 M⊙ (dashed), 1012.0 M⊙ (solid), and 1012.2 M⊙ (dotted). The shaded regions represent the … view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: Density Profiles from Dark Matter-Only Simulations. [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p015_7.png] view at source ↗
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: Ratio of Estimated Mass Contraction to Hydrodynamic Simulation Mass Profiles. [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p017_8.png] view at source ↗
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: Role of Bursty Feedback in Adiabatic Con [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p018_9.png] view at source ↗
read the original abstract

In this work, we utilize a new suite of Milky Way-mass halos from the DREAMS Project, simulated with Cold Dark Matter (CDM), to quantify the influence of baryon feedback and intrinsic halo-to-halo variance on dark matter density profiles. Our suite of 1024 halos varies over supernova and black hole feedback parameters from the IllustrisTNG model, as well as variations in two cosmological parameters. We find that, for the DREAMS parameter variations, Milky Way-mass dark matter density profiles in the IllustrisTNG model are largely insensitive to astrophysics and cosmology variations, with the dominant source of scatter instead arising from halo-to-halo variance. However, most of the (comparatively minor) feedback-driven variations come from the changes to supernova prescriptions. By comparing to dark matter-only simulations, we find that the strongest supernova wind energies are so effective at preventing galaxy formation that the halos are nearly entirely collisionless dark matter. Finally, regardless of physics variation, all the DREAMS halos are roughly consistent with a halo contracting adiabatically from the presence of baryons, unlike models that have bursty stellar feedback. This work represents a step toward assessing the uncertainty in Milky Way dark matter profiles, with direct implications for dark matter searches where systematic uncertainty in the density profile remains a major challenge.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

2 major / 2 minor

Summary. The manuscript describes results from the DREAMS suite of 1024 Milky Way-mass halos simulated in CDM with variations in supernova and black hole feedback parameters drawn from the IllustrisTNG model, together with two cosmological parameters. The central claim is that, within these DREAMS variations, the dark matter density profiles are largely insensitive to the astrophysics and cosmology changes, with halo-to-halo variance dominating the scatter. Most of the modest feedback-driven differences arise from supernova prescriptions; the strongest winds produce nearly collisionless halos. All halos remain consistent with adiabatic contraction from baryons, in contrast to bursty-feedback models.

Significance. If the results hold, the work is significant for quantifying systematic uncertainty in Milky Way dark matter profiles relevant to direct-detection searches. The large halo sample (1024) supplies robust statistics that support the claim that halo-to-halo variance exceeds feedback-induced scatter within the explored parameter space. The explicit comparison to dark-matter-only runs and the adiabatic-contraction consistency are useful benchmarks. Credit is given to the simulation volume that underpins the statistical conclusions.

major comments (2)
  1. [Abstract] Abstract: the abstract states that profiles are 'largely insensitive' to the DREAMS variations but supplies no explicit bounds, sampling density, or justification for the supernova and black hole feedback parameter ranges. Without this information it is difficult to assess whether the explored variations are broad enough to capture regimes in which baryonic effects on the inner dark matter profile could become substantial, which is load-bearing for the claim that halo-to-halo variance dominates.
  2. [Methods] Methods section: the manuscript must detail the radial range, binning, fitting procedure, and error estimation used to extract and compare the dark matter density profiles. These choices directly affect the quantitative conclusion of insensitivity and the comparison to the dark-matter-only runs; their absence limits independent verification of the reported scatter.
minor comments (2)
  1. [Figures] Figure captions should explicitly label which curves correspond to supernova variations, black-hole variations, cosmological variations, and the dark-matter-only reference runs.
  2. [Table 1] A short table summarizing the exact parameter values and ranges varied in the DREAMS suite would improve clarity and allow readers to judge the dynamic range of the astrophysical variations.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

2 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for their constructive review and recommendation for minor revision. Their comments identify opportunities to improve clarity in the abstract and methods, which we address below. We have prepared revisions to incorporate the requested details without altering the core scientific conclusions.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: The abstract states that profiles are 'largely insensitive' to the DREAMS variations but supplies no explicit bounds, sampling density, or justification for the supernova and black hole feedback parameter ranges. Without this information it is difficult to assess whether the explored variations are broad enough to capture regimes in which baryonic effects on the inner dark matter profile could become substantial.

    Authors: We agree that additional context on the parameter space would aid assessment of the claim. The DREAMS variations are drawn directly from the IllustrisTNG model parameter ranges for supernova and black hole feedback, which were calibrated to reproduce observed galaxy properties. In the revised manuscript we will expand the abstract to briefly note these ranges, the two cosmological parameters varied, and the sample of 1024 halos, thereby providing the requested justification and sampling information while preserving the abstract's brevity. revision: yes

  2. Referee: Methods section: the manuscript must detail the radial range, binning, fitting procedure, and error estimation used to extract and compare the dark matter density profiles. These choices directly affect the quantitative conclusion of insensitivity and the comparison to the dark-matter-only runs.

    Authors: We acknowledge that the current Methods section omits explicit descriptions of these analysis choices. This was an oversight in the submitted version. In the revision we will add a concise subsection specifying the radial range (0.1–10 kpc, with emphasis on the inner profile), logarithmic binning, the procedure for constructing and comparing median density profiles, and the error estimation via halo-to-halo variance with bootstrap resampling. These additions will enable independent verification while leaving the reported results unchanged. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

Direct measurements from simulation outputs with no circular derivation

full rationale

The paper's central claim follows from running 1024 Milky Way-mass halo simulations in the DREAMS suite (varying supernova, black hole feedback, and two cosmological parameters within the IllustrisTNG model) and directly extracting and comparing dark matter density profiles from the outputs, including against dark matter-only runs. No parameters are fitted to the target density profiles, no self-definitional loops or uniqueness theorems are invoked, and no ansatzes or prior self-citations are used to derive the profiles themselves. The reported insensitivity to astrophysics/cosmology variations (with halo-to-halo variance dominant) and consistency with adiabatic contraction are empirical outcomes of the simulation measurements, making the analysis self-contained against external benchmarks.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

3 free parameters · 2 axioms · 0 invented entities

The central claim rests on the IllustrisTNG subgrid feedback model being a reasonable representation of baryonic physics and on the selected parameter variations spanning the relevant astrophysical range.

free parameters (3)
  • supernova feedback parameters
    Varied across the range allowed by the IllustrisTNG model
  • black hole feedback parameters
    Varied across the range allowed by the IllustrisTNG model
  • two cosmological parameters
    Varied in addition to feedback parameters
axioms (2)
  • domain assumption Cold Dark Matter cosmology governs halo formation
    All simulations assume standard CDM initial conditions
  • domain assumption IllustrisTNG feedback prescriptions capture the dominant baryonic effects
    Variations are performed within the IllustrisTNG framework

pith-pipeline@v0.9.0 · 5673 in / 1317 out tokens · 32467 ms · 2026-05-17T01:49:48.959919+00:00 · methodology

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