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arxiv: 2605.11180 · v1 · submitted 2026-05-11 · 💱 q-fin.GN · econ.GN· q-fin.EC· q-fin.TR

Recognition: 2 theorem links

· Lean Theorem

The Value of Information: A Puzzle

Asaf Manela, Ohad Kadan

Pith reviewed 2026-05-13 00:45 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 💱 q-fin.GN econ.GNq-fin.ECq-fin.TR
keywords value of informationinformed tradingorder flowcovariancemarket makingnoise tradershigh frequency data
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The pith

The covariance between price changes and order flow measures the total value of information to informed traders.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper establishes that under mild assumptions the total value of information to informed traders equals the covariance between price changes and order flow. This covariance captures the losses suffered by noise traders, which equal the gains of informed traders when market making is competitive. Using high-frequency data on US equities the authors arrive at an average annual value of about 3.5 million dollars per stock. The aggregate value across all stocks equals roughly 0.04 percent of total market capitalization. This amount is far smaller than the 0.67 percent of market cap that investors pay each year in fees to pursue superior returns, which sets up the central puzzle the authors discuss.

Core claim

Under mild assumptions the total value of information to informed traders equals the covariance between price changes and order flow. This covariance captures the losses of noise traders, which match the profits earned by informed traders when market makers compete away their own rents.

What carries the argument

The covariance between price changes and order flow, which equals noise-trader losses under competitive market making.

If this is right

  • The value of information becomes directly measurable from observable trading data without identifying individual informed traders.
  • High-frequency equity data yield an average per-stock value of about 3.5 million dollars per year.
  • The economy-wide total equals only 0.04 percent of market capitalization.
  • This scale sits well below the fees investors pay to search for superior returns, posing a puzzle about the returns to information acquisition.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • The low measured value suggests that much private spending on information search may produce little net advantage once prices adjust.
  • The mechanism implies that competitive market making mainly redistributes wealth from noise traders to informed ones at modest aggregate scale.
  • The same covariance approach could be applied to other asset classes or to periods of varying liquidity to test robustness.

Load-bearing premise

Market making is competitive, so noise trader losses exactly equal informed trader gains.

What would settle it

Direct records of informed traders' realized profits in a market with competitive market makers should differ from the measured covariance if the equality fails to hold.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2605.11180 by Asaf Manela, Ohad Kadan.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Value of information over time 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Month 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Value of information, USD millons per year (95% CIs) (a) Value of information in levels 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Month −6 −5 −4 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 −0.6 −0.4 … view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: Value of information rises when firms report earnings [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p025_2.png] view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: Value of information by stock 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 Market equity, USD billions 0 10 20 30 40 50 Value of information, USD millons per year PSQHMIRA RGTIGALTNUSCRTD QUBT COIN RGSE IBIO GOOG BBIG TSLA MMAT AMZN Notes: Mean value of information plotted against mean market equity for each specific stock (permno). The value of information is the annualized sum of the product of share price changes times sign… view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Value of information as percentage of market capitalization [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p030_4.png] view at source ↗
read the original abstract

We show that under mild assumptions, the total value of information to informed traders in the market can be measured by the covariance between price changes and order flow. This covariance captures noise trader losses, which equal informed trader gains when market making is competitive. We estimate the value of information using high frequency data on US equities at about $3.5 million per year for the average stock. The aggregate value of information is about 0.04% of market cap, which is considerably lower than the 0.67% in fees investors pay each year searching for superior returns (French 2008). We discuss potential resolutions for these puzzling findings.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

2 major / 1 minor

Summary. The paper claims that under mild assumptions, the total value of information to informed traders equals the covariance between price changes and order flow, because this covariance captures noise-trader losses that exactly offset informed-trader gains when market makers earn zero expected profits. Using high-frequency US equity data, the authors estimate an average annual value of information of roughly $3.5 million per stock and an aggregate value of 0.04 percent of market capitalization, far below the 0.67 percent of market cap that investors pay in fees to search for superior returns (French 2008). The paper presents this discrepancy as a puzzle and discusses possible resolutions.

Significance. If the central identification holds, the paper supplies a simple, observable, and largely parameter-free measure of the aggregate value of information that follows directly from standard microstructure accounting identities rather than from fitted parameters or strong functional-form restrictions. The empirical magnitudes are striking and falsifiable, and the contrast with French (2008) quantifies a potentially important wedge between the social value of information and the private costs of acquiring it. The approach therefore has the potential to inform both theoretical work on market efficiency and policy discussions about active management.

major comments (2)
  1. [Derivation of the covariance measure] The derivation that equates the covariance of price changes and order flow to total informed-trader profits rests on the competitive-market-making assumption that market makers earn zero expected profits. This step is load-bearing for the central claim; the manuscript should state the precise accounting identity used and verify that no additional restrictions (for example, on the timing of information revelation or on the composition of order flow) are required for the equality to hold exactly.
  2. [Empirical estimation section] The empirical implementation requires explicit documentation of the data filters, the precise definition of order flow, the sampling frequency, and any adjustments for bid-ask bounce or other microstructure noise. Without these details the reported $3.5 million per-stock figure cannot be replicated or stress-tested against alternative liquidity proxies.
minor comments (1)
  1. [Abstract] The abstract states the aggregate value is 'considerably lower' than French (2008); a brief sentence reconciling the two percentages (for example, noting differences in market-cap definitions or time periods) would improve comparability.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

2 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for the constructive comments. We address each major comment below, indicating where revisions will be made to improve clarity and replicability.

read point-by-point responses
  1. Referee: The derivation that equates the covariance of price changes and order flow to total informed-trader profits rests on the competitive-market-making assumption that market makers earn zero expected profits. This step is load-bearing for the central claim; the manuscript should state the precise accounting identity used and verify that no additional restrictions (for example, on the timing of information revelation or on the composition of order flow) are required for the equality to hold exactly.

    Authors: We agree that the zero expected profit condition for market makers is key to the result. The revised manuscript will explicitly present the accounting identity used: total informed-trader profits equal the covariance between price changes and order flow, as this covariance measures the losses incurred by noise traders under competitive market making. We will include a detailed derivation in an appendix that confirms the equality holds exactly under the mild assumptions stated in the paper, without requiring additional restrictions on information timing or order flow composition. This will clarify the foundations of the central claim. revision: yes

  2. Referee: The empirical implementation requires explicit documentation of the data filters, the precise definition of order flow, the sampling frequency, and any adjustments for bid-ask bounce or other microstructure noise. Without these details the reported $3.5 million per-stock figure cannot be replicated or stress-tested against alternative liquidity proxies.

    Authors: We acknowledge the need for more explicit documentation in the empirical section. The revised paper will provide full details on the data filters applied, the precise definition of order flow, the sampling frequency employed, and any adjustments made for bid-ask bounce or microstructure noise. This will enable replication and allow readers to assess robustness to alternative specifications. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No significant circularity; derivation uses standard microstructure identities

full rationale

The paper derives that the covariance between price changes and order flow equals the total value of information to informed traders under competitive market making, where noise-trader losses equal informed-trader gains. This equivalence follows from market-clearing and zero-expected-profit conditions for market makers, which are independent accounting identities rather than a fitted parameter or self-referential definition. Estimation on high-frequency equity data is performed after the derivation and does not feed back into it. No load-bearing self-citations, ansatzes, or uniqueness theorems from prior work by the authors are invoked to force the result. The central claim remains self-contained against external benchmarks.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

0 free parameters · 2 axioms · 0 invented entities

The central claim rests on unspecified mild assumptions plus the premise that competitive market making makes noise-trader losses exactly equal informed-trader gains; no free parameters or invented entities are mentioned in the abstract.

axioms (2)
  • domain assumption Market making is competitive so that noise trader losses equal informed trader gains
    Invoked to equate the covariance directly to the total value of information
  • ad hoc to paper Mild assumptions allow the covariance to measure total value of information
    Stated in the abstract as the basis for the main result

pith-pipeline@v0.9.0 · 5404 in / 1358 out tokens · 52927 ms · 2026-05-13T00:45:26.165969+00:00 · methodology

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