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arxiv: 2606.01158 · v1 · pith:VWJH4TXUnew · submitted 2026-05-31 · 🌌 astro-ph.HE

Deep Optical Follow-up Observations to IceCube Cosmic Neutrinos: a case for IC230724A with Subaru/HSC and prospects with Rubin/LSST

Shigeo S. Kimura , Masaomi Tanaka , Seiji Toshikage , Tomoki Morokuma , Nobuhiro Shimizu , Nozomu Tominaga , Naoki Yasuda , Yousuke Utsumi
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Michitoshi Yoshida Yasushi Fukazawa Koji S. Kawabata
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Pith reviewed 2026-06-28 16:38 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 🌌 astro-ph.HE
keywords IceCube neutrinostidal disruption eventsoptical follow-upSubaru HSCRubin LSSThigh-energy neutrinosmulti-messenger astronomy
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The pith

Deep Subaru imaging of IceCube neutrino IC230724A found no tidal disruption event after blind analysis of backgrounds and selection rates.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

IceCube has detected high-energy cosmic neutrinos for over a decade, yet the main sources remain unidentified and tidal disruption events are one candidate class. For the well-localized alert IC230724A the authors obtained Subaru/HSC images reaching 25.5 magnitude and performed a dedicated search that explicitly measured background rates and true-positive efficiencies under blind-analysis rules. No TDE candidate was identified inside the error region. The paper shows that extending the same search strategy with Rubin/LSST to ten neutrino alerts would place a statistical upper bound of 60 percent or a lower bound of 30 percent on the TDE fraction of the cosmic neutrino background, depending on whether any associations are found.

Core claim

No tidal disruption event candidate was found in the localization region of IceCube event IC230724A after Subaru/HSC deep imaging and a blind analysis that evaluated background rates and true-positive rates. Rubin/LSST coverage of ten neutrino error regions would constrain the TDE contribution to the high-energy neutrino background to either ≲60 percent in the case of non-detections or ≳30 percent in the case of detections.

What carries the argument

Blind analysis of optical transients inside neutrino error regions, using measured background rates and true-positive efficiencies to test for tidal disruption events.

If this is right

  • The neutrino IC230724A is unlikely to have been produced by a tidal disruption event.
  • Non-detection of TDEs in ten Rubin/LSST-covered neutrino regions would imply that TDEs account for at most 60 percent of the cosmic high-energy neutrino background.
  • Detection of TDEs in a comparable sample would imply that TDEs account for at least 30 percent of the background.
  • The statistical constraint arises directly from accumulating multiple well-localized alerts rather than from any single event.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • The same follow-up approach could be applied to other candidate source classes once their expected optical signatures are modeled.
  • If TDEs are ultimately shown to be sub-dominant, the remaining neutrino flux would have to be supplied by a different population whose optical counterparts can be searched with the same wide-field strategy.
  • Coordinated scheduling between neutrino alerts and Rubin/LSST visits would tighten the fractional bounds faster than the ten-event baseline examined here.

Load-bearing premise

Any tidal disruption event inside the observed field and brighter than the magnitude limit would have been detected and correctly classified by the analysis.

What would settle it

Discovery of an optical transient whose light curve and spectrum match a tidal disruption event inside the IC230724A error region near the neutrino arrival time.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2606.01158 by Koji S. Kawabata, Masaomi Tanaka, Michitoshi Yoshida, Naoki Yasuda, Nobuhiro Shimizu, Nozomu Tominaga, Seiji Toshikage, Shigeo S. Kimura, Tomoki Morokuma, Yasushi Fukazawa, Yousuke Utsumi.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Localization areas of IC230724A and our HSC r-band image. Black circle and rectangle show 90% probabability region from the automatic alert (v1) and updated alert (v2), respectively. Blue solid and dashed circles show 90% and 50% probability regions from IceCat-2, respectively. The region surrounded by green lines show our background region. 2. OBSERVATIONS AND DATA REDUCTION 2.1. Observations We performed… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: Examples of our TDE lightcurve templates at ν = 7.5 × 1014 Hz or (λ = 4000 ˚A) at the source rest frame. We fix Lpk = 1043.5 erg s−1 and varied the other parameters to indicate diversity of the population. as well as fake detection (bogus) due to the imperfect image subtraction. Further selection processes for these candidates are discussed in Section 4. 3. SOURCE MODEL We test a population of TDEs as the … view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: Redshift distribution of the neutrino-emitting TDEs. The thick-solid line is our reference distribution. The thin-dashed and thin-dotted lines are for the neutrino energy fluence of εν = 3 × 1051 erg and redshift evolution with the star-formation history, respectively. TDEs occuring in green-valley and elliptical galaxies are more easily identified owing to lower g-band luminosity. We consider TDEs occurri… view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: TPR of (I) image-quality cut as a function of magnitude. The resulting TPR (black) is measured by im￾posing two detection in g and r bands at Epoch 1 (with 1 σ Poisson noise). Blue and red points show the TPRs for g￾and r-band detection, respectively. The gray dashed curve shows a smooth function used in the simulated observations in Section 4.3.3 [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p008_4.png] view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5 [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p010_5.png] view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: The probability of realizing nT = 0 (thick-blue￾solid line) as a function of λ. Since the probability is always higher than 0.1, all the range, 0 ≤ λ ≤ 1, is allowed. In case we perform our statistical analysis on Ntrial neutrino alerts, the likelihood for signal and alternative hypotheses can be modified to LN,sig(NnT ≥1; λ) = N Ytrial i Lsig,i (9) LN,alt(NnT ≥1; λˆ) = N Ytrial i Lalt,i (10) where subscri… view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: Expected constraints on the fractional contribu￾tion of TDEs, λ, with Rubin/LSST for Ntrial = 7 (top) and 10 (bottom). background, λ, which are shown in [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p011_7.png] view at source ↗
read the original abstract

IceCube has been detecting cosmic high-energy neutrinos for more than 10 years, but their major sources are still under debate. To identify them, IceCube is issuing neutrino alerts, which enable us to perform electromagnetic follow-up observations. In this paper, we present our Subaru/HSC deep optical follow-up observations down to 25.5 mag to a well-localized neutrino event, IceCube 230724A. We conduct a dedicated analysis with extensive evaluation of background rates and true positive rates adopting the blind analysis policy to identify or disfavor tidal disruption events (TDEs) as cosmic neutrino sources. Our analysis found no TDE candidate in the region of interest. Rubin/LSST survey will enable us to constrain their fractional contribution to the cosmic high-energy neutrino background, either $\lesssim 60\%$ or $\gtrsim30\%$ for non-detection and detection, respectively, if Rubin covers the error regions of 10 neutrino events.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

1 major / 0 minor

Summary. The manuscript reports Subaru/HSC deep optical follow-up observations to 25.5 mag of the well-localized IceCube neutrino alert IC230724A. A dedicated blind analysis with background rate and true-positive rate evaluations finds no TDE candidates in the region of interest. It further forecasts that Rubin/LSST coverage of error regions for 10 neutrino events would constrain the TDE fractional contribution to the cosmic high-energy neutrino background at the level of ≲60% (non-detection) or ≳30% (detection).

Significance. If the localization completeness and background/efficiency modeling assumptions hold, the non-detection adds a data point to the sample of neutrino follow-ups lacking electromagnetic counterparts, while the LSST projection supplies a concrete, falsifiable statistical test for the TDE hypothesis at the population level. The adoption of a blind analysis policy is a methodological strength that enhances credibility.

major comments (1)
  1. [Abstract (methods description)] The non-detection result and the Rubin/LSST fractional-contribution bounds (≲60% or ≳30% after 10 events) both require that the reported neutrino localization error region is complete for any TDE detectable at 25.5 mag and that the blind-analysis background and true-positive rate evaluations correctly capture all contaminants and selection effects. The abstract states that extensive background/true-positive evaluations were performed, but without the quantitative details, validation tests, or efficiency curves, it is not possible to assess whether this load-bearing assumption holds; failure of either the localization or the rate modeling would render the constraint and forecast invalid.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

1 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for the positive assessment of our work and for highlighting the importance of the localization completeness and rate-modeling assumptions. We address the single major comment below.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: [Abstract (methods description)] The non-detection result and the Rubin/LSST fractional-contribution bounds (≲60% or ≳30% after 10 events) both require that the reported neutrino localization error region is complete for any TDE detectable at 25.5 mag and that the blind-analysis background and true-positive rate evaluations correctly capture all contaminants and selection effects. The abstract states that extensive background/true-positive evaluations were performed, but without the quantitative details, validation tests, or efficiency curves, it is not possible to assess whether this load-bearing assumption holds; failure of either the localization or the rate modeling would render the constraint and forecast invalid.

    Authors: We agree that the validity of both the non-detection and the LSST forecast rests on localization completeness for TDEs to 25.5 mag and on the fidelity of the blind-analysis background and efficiency modeling. These elements are quantified in the full manuscript (background rates and contaminants in Section 3, true-positive rate and validation tests in Section 4, efficiency curves and selection effects in Section 5, and localization completeness assessment in Section 2). The abstract is intentionally concise, but we will revise it to include a brief clause referencing the key quantitative validations and efficiency results so that readers can more readily evaluate the load-bearing assumptions without first consulting the body text. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No circularity: direct observational non-detection and scaled projections

full rationale

The paper reports a blind-analysis search for TDEs in the error region of IC230724A using Subaru/HSC data down to 25.5 mag, states that no candidates were found, and scales the non-detection to forecast Rubin/LSST constraints on the TDE fraction after 10 events. These steps are empirical outcomes and straightforward extrapolation; they contain no fitted parameters renamed as predictions, no self-definitional relations, and no load-bearing self-citations that reduce the central claims to prior author work. The localization-completeness and background-rate assumptions are external to the derivation and do not create internal circularity.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

0 free parameters · 0 axioms · 0 invented entities

Paper is purely observational; abstract introduces no mathematical model, fitted parameters, axioms, or new physical entities.

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discussion (0)

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