Quasi-randomization tests for network interference: a random graph approach

Network interference occurs when the treatment status of one unit affects the potential outcomes of other units, giving rise to spillover effects that are difficult to test for. We propose treating the network as a random variable rather than a fixed quantity to address this challenge. This overcomes a key challenge of non-imputability of potential outcomes under the null and avoids the computational intractability of existing conditional randomization tests. Our quasi-randomization test builds the null distribution of no spillover effects using random graph null models, is exactly valid in finite samples under mild assumptions on the network-generating process, and offers substantially improved power over existing methods, particularly in cluster-randomized trials. We validate our approach via simulation and illustrate it by testing for interference in a weather insurance adoption experiment in rural China.