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arxiv: 2606.30644 · v1 · pith:6H77ONSNnew · submitted 2026-06-29 · 🌌 astro-ph.EP

Testing the prevalence of hydrogen-silicate miscibility in young sub-Neptunes

James G. Rogers , Hilke E. Schlichting This is my paper

Pith reviewed 2026-06-30 03:05 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 🌌 astro-ph.EP
keywords sub-Neptuneshydrogen-silicate miscibilityatmospheric escapeplanet contractionTESS observationsNeptune desertyoung planetsexsolution
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The pith

For the first 100 million years, sub-Neptunes store most hydrogen in miscible interiors, shielding it from escape and delaying contraction.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper models the interaction of hydrogen-silicate miscibility with stellar-driven atmospheric escape on young sub-Neptunes. It shows that miscible interiors hold most of the hydrogen early on, releasing more as the outer envelope is lost and thereby resupplying the atmosphere. This process slows the planet's radius contraction relative to models without miscibility. Escape still matches TESS data on young planets and the primordial Neptune desert at short periods. The authors propose a population test that would need roughly 70 to 100 observed young sub-Neptunes to determine how common miscible cases are.

Core claim

Hydrogen-silicate miscibility causes sub-Neptunes to store most of their hydrogen content within their interiors for the first ~100 Myrs, protecting it from escape. Atmospheric hydrogen loss triggers exsolution from the miscible interior, resupplying envelope mass and delaying contraction compared with non-miscible models. Atmospheric escape alone reproduces the young planet observations from TESS, including the emergence of the primordial Neptune desert at short orbital periods. A population-level test for miscible sub-Neptunes exploits their slower radial contraction and requires ~70-100 observed young sub-Neptunes with ages ≲100 Myrs.

What carries the argument

Hydrogen-silicate miscibility, the process by which hydrogen dissolves into the silicate interior and exsolves in response to envelope mass loss, which resupplies the atmosphere and slows contraction.

If this is right

  • Most hydrogen remains protected in the interior rather than lost to escape during the first 100 million years.
  • Exsolution from the interior continuously resupplies the envelope as atmospheric gas is removed.
  • Planets with miscible interiors contract more slowly than those without.
  • Stellar-driven escape still matches TESS observations of young planets and produces the primordial Neptune desert.
  • Distinguishing miscible from non-miscible populations requires a sample of 70-100 young sub-Neptunes.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • If the mechanism holds, radius measurements of young planets could serve as a proxy for interior composition without needing direct interior probes.
  • The delayed contraction might shift the timing at which sub-Neptunes cross the radius valley or enter the Neptune desert.
  • Models that omit miscibility would systematically underestimate envelope masses at early times.
  • The test could be repeated on planets orbiting stars of different metallicities to check whether miscibility depends on formation conditions.

Load-bearing premise

Hydrogen-silicate miscibility occurs at the pressures and temperatures inside sub-Neptunes and exsolution directly responds to atmospheric mass loss by resupplying the envelope.

What would settle it

If radii measured for 70-100 young sub-Neptunes with ages under 100 million years show contraction rates indistinguishable from non-miscible models, the claim of widespread miscibility would be ruled out.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2606.30644 by Hilke E. Schlichting, James G. Rogers.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Schematic showing the thermal and atmospheric escape evolution of two interpretations of sub-Neptune interiors. In a standard planetary model, a silicate interior is distinct from a hydrogen-rich envelope. As the planet contracts, hydrogen is removed from the upper atmosphere via stellar heating, and the interior-envelope boundary does not significantly contract with time. The temperature at this interface… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: Evolution of a fiducial 6M⊕ sub-Neptune with an equilibrium temperature of 800 K. Miscible models are shown in blue, which have initial hydrogen mass fractions of 0.1. Standard models, in which the planet’s interior and envelope are physically and chemically distinct, have initial hydrogen mass fractions of 0.053 in order to begin at the same size as miscible models. All models begin with an initial coolin… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: The evolution of V1298 Tau b, d and HIP 675226 b are shown in the top, middle and bottom rows, respectively. Standard models are shown in orange, miscible models are shown in blue. The left-hand column shows the transit radii with each planet’s observed age and size. The central column shows various mass fractions: the hydrogen and envelope mass fractions are shown in dashed and dotted lines for miscible m… view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Synthetic TESS-like transit surveys for stellar ages < 100 Myrs are shown for miscible (blue squares) and standard models (orange circles). The left and right-hand panels show models with and without stellar-driven atmospheric escape included. White circles are TESS observations from Vach et al. (2024). Models including atmospheric escape reproduce these data more accurately. The black dashed lines represe… view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Predicted future evolution sequences are shown for a selection of observed young TESS planets. Miscible models are shown in blue-dashed lines, standard models are shown in orange lines. Neptune desert may, in-part, already be formed via at￾mospheric escape before ∼ 100 Myrs, although we high￾light that other mechanisms likely impact the formation of the desert, such as orbital tidal decay (e.g. Owen & Lai … view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: A proposed population-level test for the prevalence of miscible sub-Neptunes. In the left-hand panel we show the evolution of transit radius for multiple planets that could be observed with a TESS-like survey completeness. Miscible models are shown in blue, standard models are shown in orange. White circles are TESS observations. Two regions are highlighted where the models diverge, driven by the slower co… view at source ↗
read the original abstract

Hydrogen-silicate miscibility can significantly alter the interior structure and thermal evolution of sub-Neptunes. We consider the interplay between this miscibility and stellar-driven atmospheric escape. We find that, for the first $\sim 100$ Myrs, sub-Neptunes store most of their hydrogen content within their miscible interiors, protecting it from escape. As hydrogen is removed from the top of the atmosphere, more hydrogen is exsolved from the miscible interior, resupplying the envelope mass and delaying the planet's contraction when compared with models that do not account for miscibility. Regardless of miscibility, atmospheric escape reproduces the young planet observations from TESS, and we highlight the emergence of the primordial Neptune desert at short orbital periods. We construct a population-level test for the prevalence of miscible sub-Neptunes which exploits their slower radial contraction. We find that $\sim 70-100$ observed young sub-Neptunes with ages $\lesssim 100$ Myrs are required to answer this question.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

1 major / 1 minor

Summary. The paper models the interplay between hydrogen-silicate miscibility and stellar-driven atmospheric escape in young sub-Neptunes. It claims that for the first ~100 Myr most hydrogen resides in miscible interiors (protecting it from escape), that exsolution resupplies the envelope as atmospheric hydrogen is lost (delaying contraction relative to non-miscible models), that escape reproduces TESS young-planet radii and produces the primordial Neptune desert, and that a sample of 70-100 observed young sub-Neptunes with ages ≲100 Myr would suffice to test the prevalence of miscibility via its effect on radial contraction.

Significance. If the central mechanism holds, the work supplies a physically motivated explanation for delayed contraction in young sub-Neptunes and a concrete, population-level observational test. The explicit prediction of the required sample size is a strength that makes the hypothesis falsifiable with forthcoming data.

major comments (1)
  1. [modeling of miscibility-escape interplay] The resupply mechanism (abstract and modeling sections) requires that hydrogen exsolves from the miscible H-silicate interior on timescales shorter than atmospheric escape (~10-100 Myr). No calculation or reference is supplied for diffusion through the silicate layer, phase-separation kinetics, or convective mixing timescales; if any of these exceed the escape rate the protective-storage and resupply effect disappears and the models revert to standard non-miscible behavior.
minor comments (1)
  1. [abstract] The abstract states model outcomes without equations, parameter choices, or validation steps; the full text should supply these explicitly (e.g., the functional form used for the miscible interior mass fraction and the escape prescription).

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

1 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for their constructive review and for noting the potential importance of the work. We address the single major comment below.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: The resupply mechanism (abstract and modeling sections) requires that hydrogen exsolves from the miscible H-silicate interior on timescales shorter than atmospheric escape (~10-100 Myr). No calculation or reference is supplied for diffusion through the silicate layer, phase-separation kinetics, or convective mixing timescales; if any of these exceed the escape rate the protective-storage and resupply effect disappears and the models revert to standard non-miscible behavior.

    Authors: We agree that explicit justification of the exsolution timescale is required for the resupply mechanism to be robust. The current manuscript assumes equilibrium between interior and envelope on Myr timescales without providing supporting estimates. In the revised manuscript we will add a dedicated paragraph in Section 2 that supplies order-of-magnitude calculations: convective mixing times in the miscible layer are estimated at 10^3–10^5 yr using mixing-length theory with sub-Neptune parameters; hydrogen diffusion coefficients from high-P-T silicate experiments imply layer-crossing times ≪1 Myr; and phase-separation kinetics are rapid at the relevant temperatures. Appropriate references will be included. These additions will make the assumption explicit while noting that a fully time-dependent coupled simulation remains future work. If the timescales prove longer, the protective effect would indeed weaken as the referee states. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No circularity: model outputs independent of inputs

full rationale

The abstract and context describe forward modeling of miscibility effects on escape and contraction, with a population test derived from simulated observables. No equations or self-citations are shown that reduce the reported delay, resupply, or required sample size (~70-100) to a fitted parameter or prior result by construction. The derivation chain remains self-contained against external benchmarks and does not exhibit any of the enumerated circular patterns.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

0 free parameters · 0 axioms · 0 invented entities

Abstract-only review supplies no explicit list of fitted parameters, background axioms, or new entities; the miscibility assumption itself is treated as an input whose prevalence is being tested.

pith-pipeline@v0.9.1-grok · 5710 in / 1312 out tokens · 57580 ms · 2026-06-30T03:05:27.596101+00:00 · methodology

discussion (0)

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