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A Bayesian Gaussian Process Dynamic Factor Model
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We propose a dynamic factor model (DFM) where the latent factors are linked to observed variables with unknown and potentially nonlinear functions. The key novelty and source of flexibility of our approach is a nonparametric observation equation, specified via Gaussian Process (GP) priors for each series. Factor dynamics are modeled with a standard vector autoregression (VAR), which facilitates computation and interpretation. We discuss a computationally efficient estimation algorithm and consider two empirical applications. First, we forecast key series from the FRED-QD dataset and show that the model yields improvements in predictive accuracy relative to linear benchmarks. Second, we extract driving factors of global inflation dynamics with the GP-DFM, which allows for capturing international asymmetries.
Forward citations
Cited by 2 Pith papers
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A Dynamic Factor Model for Level and Volatility
A dynamic factor model with jointly evolving level and volatility factors improves density forecast accuracy for international inflation, especially in tails and at medium horizons.
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Learning Nonlinear Dynamics: Improving the Estimation Efficiency and Reliability of Gaussian Process State-Space Models
Modifies Gibbs sampler for GP state-space models, introduces CFA measurement structure, and validates software via simulation-based calibration to enable reliable learning of nonlinear latent dynamics.
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