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arxiv 2309.10546 v1 pith:XWDJRLLV submitted 2023-09-19 q-fin.CP cs.AIcs.LGq-fin.GNq-fin.PM

Mean Absolute Directional Loss as a New Loss Function for Machine Learning Problems in Algorithmic Investment Strategies

classification q-fin.CP cs.AIcs.LGq-fin.GNq-fin.PM
keywords lossfunctioninvestmentstrategiesalgorithmicabsolutedatadirectional
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal T4 reserved
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This paper investigates the issue of an adequate loss function in the optimization of machine learning models used in the forecasting of financial time series for the purpose of algorithmic investment strategies (AIS) construction. We propose the Mean Absolute Directional Loss (MADL) function, solving important problems of classical forecast error functions in extracting information from forecasts to create efficient buy/sell signals in algorithmic investment strategies. Finally, based on the data from two different asset classes (cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin and commodities: Crude Oil), we show that the new loss function enables us to select better hyperparameters for the LSTM model and obtain more efficient investment strategies, with regard to risk-adjusted return metrics on the out-of-sample data.

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