Pith Number

pith:TX3AYJBJ

pith:2026:TX3AYJBJDFQ4CB45ZPOTLYQBZ4

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Bayesian-Monte Carlo Schedule Updating for Construction Digital Twins: A Probabilistic Framework for Dynamic Project Forecasting

Atena Khoshkonesh, Mohsen Mohammadagha, Navid Ebrahimi, Vinayak Kaushal

A Bayesian-Monte Carlo framework updates construction schedules by recursively incorporating new observations to produce adaptive probabilistic forecasts.

arxiv:2605.17608 v1 · 2026-05-17 · cs.CE · cs.AI

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\pithnumber{TX3AYJBJDFQ4CB45ZPOTLYQBZ4}

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Record completeness

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3 Author claim open · sign in to claim

4 Citations open

5 Replications open

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The bundle contains the canonical record plus signed events. A mirror can host it anywhere and recompute the same current state with the deterministic merge algorithm.

Claims

C1strongest claim

Simulation experiments using PSPLIB benchmark project networks demonstrate that the proposed framework improves forecasting accuracy and uncertainty representation compared with deterministic CPM and static probabilistic scheduling approaches.

C2weakest assumption

Activity durations are adequately represented by lognormal probability distributions and that continuous streams of reliable new observations from BIM, drones, IoT, and logs will be available for Bayesian recursive updating.

C3one line summary

A Bayesian-Monte Carlo framework for dynamic probabilistic schedule updating in construction digital twins that improves forecasting over deterministic CPM methods.

References

50 extracted · 50 resolved · 0 Pith anchors

[1] P.E.D. Love, D.J. Edwards, Z. Irani, Moving beyond optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation: An explanation for social infrastructure project cost overruns, IEEE Trans. Eng. Manage. 59 (2012) 560 2012

[2] Flyvbjerg, What you should know about megaprojects and why: An overview, Proj 2014

[3] Chitkara, Construction Project Management: Planning, Scheduling and Controlling, McGraw- Hill, 2014 2014

[4] Kerzner, Project Management: A Systems Approach to Planning, Scheduling, and Controlling, Wiley, 2017 2017

[5] J.J. Moder, C.R. Phillips, E.W. Davis, Project Management with CPM, PERT and Precedence Diagramming, Van Nostrand Reinhold, 1983 1983

Formal links

2 machine-checked theorem links

Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-05-20T00:04:48.273310Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	Pith Ed25519 (`pith-v1-2026-05`) · public key
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

9df60c24291961c1079dcbdd35e201cf1f4a4d257215b9c52753d3446c59e7e1

Aliases

arxiv: 2605.17608 · arxiv_version: 2605.17608v1 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2605.17608 · pith_short_12: TX3AYJBJDFQ4 · pith_short_16: TX3AYJBJDFQ4CB45 · pith_short_8: TX3AYJBJ

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Verify this Pith Number yourself

curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/TX3AYJBJDFQ4CB45ZPOTLYQBZ4 \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: 9df60c24291961c1079dcbdd35e201cf1f4a4d257215b9c52753d3446c59e7e1

Canonical record JSON

{
  "metadata": {
    "abstract_canon_sha256": "7748998f4e3b27fd57ab70b5df95836c0653553344b21e6f73841c51640dc118",
    "cross_cats_sorted": [
      "cs.AI"
    ],
    "license": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
    "primary_cat": "cs.CE",
    "submitted_at": "2026-05-17T19:09:37Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "fe17b02d59dc380f86e377ceaf690f3d0bf38affe6bc0aca2e42e1a086d01b61"
  },
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "source": {
    "id": "2605.17608",
    "kind": "arxiv",
    "version": 1
  }
}