Maximum-likelihood-based posterior predictive checks detect model misspecification better than event-level versions for uncertain spin tilts, but current detector sensitivity limits their power; the Gaussian Component Spins model underpredicts high spin magnitudes and overpredicts anti-aligned tilts
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DALI extends the Fisher Matrix to higher orders and approximates MCMC posteriors for GW events at 55 times lower cost, with singlet-DALI offering better accuracy and the GWDALI code providing automatic differentiation and modern waveforms.
Baselines of 8-11 ms light travel time for two CE detectors provide a reasonable compromise for BBH sky localization, with third detectors eliminating multimodality for most or all events.
Two asymmetric BBH mergers are characterized with mass ratios 0.35 and ≤0.20; one shows high spins, negative χ_eff, and strong precession, suggesting an emerging population of massive rapidly spinning systems.
Fisher-matrix methods in GWFish match LIGO/Virgo posteriors reasonably when priors are included, with prior impact scaling with parameter degeneracy, supporting their use for ET forecasts.
citing papers explorer
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Posterior Predictive Checks for Gravitational-wave Populations: Limitations and Improvements
Maximum-likelihood-based posterior predictive checks detect model misspecification better than event-level versions for uncertain spin tilts, but current detector sensitivity limits their power; the Gaussian Component Spins model underpredicts high spin magnitudes and overpredicts anti-aligned tilts
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Not too close! Evaluating the impact of the baseline on the localization of binary black holes by next-generation gravitational-wave detectors
Baselines of 8-11 ms light travel time for two CE detectors provide a reasonable compromise for BBH sky localization, with third detectors eliminating multimodality for most or all events.
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Validating Prior-informed Fisher-matrix Analyses against GWTC Data
Fisher-matrix methods in GWFish match LIGO/Virgo posteriors reasonably when priors are included, with prior impact scaling with parameter degeneracy, supporting their use for ET forecasts.