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arxiv: 2604.16765 · v1 · submitted 2026-04-18 · 💻 cs.SI · cs.CL· cs.CY

Recognition: unknown

Mapping Election Toxicity on Social Media across Issue, Ideology, and Psychosocial Dimensions

Emilio Ferrara, Eun Cheol Choi, Lei Cao, Wen Zeng, Xinyue Wu

Authors on Pith no claims yet

Pith reviewed 2026-05-10 07:40 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 💻 cs.SI cs.CLcs.CY
keywords election toxicitysocial mediapolitical ideologymoral foundationsemotional tone2024 US electionissue heterogeneityharm categories
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The pith

Election toxicity on social media peaks for identity issues and is driven by high-arousal negative emotions that mirror across ideologies.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper maps how harmful content in posts about the 2024 U.S. presidential election changes across ten campaign topics and left versus right leanings, while also tracking the emotions and moral appeals that accompany the harm. A reader would care because the patterns show toxicity is not a single constant problem but one that shifts sharply with the issue being debated and the partisan frame applied to it. The work uses large-scale data from X to separate issue effects, ideology effects, and psychosocial signals, revealing that identity-centered debates carry the most intense toxicity and that partisan posts are generally more harmful than neutral ones. It further finds that negative high-arousal emotions dominate toxic talk and that moral foundations overlap between sides but are strongly shaped by the immediate topic.

Core claim

Online political hostility during the five weeks around the 2024 election varies by issue and ideology, with identity-related topics showing the highest toxicity intensity, harassment as the most prevalent harm type across issues, and hate concentrated in identity debates; partisan posts contain more harmful content than neutral ones, toxic discourse is dominated by high-arousal negative emotions, left- and right-leaning posts often display similar emotional profiles within the same issue, and issue context determines which moral foundations become most salient.

What carries the argument

A pipeline that categorizes posts into ten campaign issues, estimates post ideology via human-in-the-loop LLM annotation, detects toxicity and harm categories with an LLM model, and then measures emotional tone and moral-foundation signals to produce a multi-dimensional map of toxicity.

Load-bearing premise

The LLM toxicity detector and human-in-the-loop ideology labels correctly identify real harmful content and political leanings without large systematic errors or biases.

What would settle it

A hand-coded sample of several hundred posts in which the automated toxicity scores or ideology estimates disagree with human raters on more than 20 percent of cases.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2604.16765 by Emilio Ferrara, Eun Cheol Choi, Lei Cao, Wen Zeng, Xinyue Wu.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Toxicity Category Composition by Issue Policy, and Gun Policy. Third, although Hate is less preva￾lent overall, it is comparatively more prominent in identity￾related issues. In particular, Hate reaches its highest shares in Racial & Gender Inequality and Immigration. By con￾trast, the remaining three categories, Illicit, Self-harm, and Sexual, account for small portions across issues, with less than 5% ea… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: Toxicity Intensity by Issue Toxicity Intensity Whereas toxicity prevalence captures how often toxic content appears within an issue, the tox￾icity score reflects the intensity of that content [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p005_2.png] view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Toxicity Prevalence by Issue and Ideology [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p006_4.png] view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Toxicity Score Gap by Issue and Ideology [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p007_5.png] view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: Ideology Toxicity Intensity Boxplot [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p013_6.png] view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: Emotion Label Composition in Toxic Discourse by Issue and Ideology [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p014_7.png] view at source ↗
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: Moral Foundation Composition in Toxic Discourse by Issue and Ideology [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p015_8.png] view at source ↗
read the original abstract

Online political hostility is pervasive, yet it remains unclear how toxicity varies across campaign issues and political ideology, and what psychosocial signals and framing accompany toxic expression online. In this work, we present a large-scale analysis of discourse on X (Twitter) during the five weeks surrounding the 2024 U.S. presidential election. We categorize posts into 10 major campaign issues, estimate the ideology of posts using a human-in-the-loop LLM-assisted annotation process, detect harmful content with an LLM-based toxicity detection model, and then examine the psychological drivers of toxic content. We use these annotated data to examine how harmful content varies across campaign issues and ideologies, as well as how emotional tone and moral framing shape toxicity in election discussions. Our results show issue heterogeneity in both the prevalence and intensity of toxicity. Identity-related issues displayed the highest toxicity intensity. As for specific harm categories, harassment was most prevalent and intense across most of the issues, while hate concentrated in identity-centered debates. Partisan posts contained more harmful content than neutral posts, and ideological asymmetries in toxicity varied by issue. In terms of psycholinguistic dimensions, we found that toxic discourse is dominated by high-arousal negative emotions. Left- and right-leaning posts often exhibit similar emotional profiles within the same issue domain, suggesting emotional mirroring. Partisan groups frequently rely on overlapping moral foundations, while issue context strongly shapes which moral foundations become most salient. These findings provide a fine-grained account of toxic political discourse on social media and highlight that online political toxicity is highly context-dependent, underscoring the need for issue-sensitive approaches to measuring and mitigating it.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

3 major / 2 minor

Summary. The manuscript presents a large-scale empirical analysis of X (Twitter) posts from the five weeks surrounding the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Posts are categorized into 10 campaign issues; ideology is estimated via a human-in-the-loop LLM-assisted annotation process; toxicity, harm categories, emotional tone, and moral foundations are detected or scored using LLM-based models. The central claims are issue heterogeneity in toxicity prevalence and intensity (highest for identity-related issues), higher harmful content in partisan than neutral posts with issue-dependent ideological asymmetries, dominance of high-arousal negative emotions in toxic discourse with emotional mirroring across ideologies, and strong issue-context shaping of salient moral foundations.

Significance. If the core measurement pipelines are shown to be reliable and unbiased, the work would deliver a useful fine-grained, multi-dimensional map of context-dependent online political toxicity. The integration of issue categorization, ideology estimation, and psychosocial signals on a large election-period corpus is a clear strength, offering descriptive evidence relevant to affective polarization and platform moderation research.

major comments (3)
  1. [Methods] Methods section (toxicity detection pipeline): No precision, recall, F1, or inter-rater agreement metrics are reported for the LLM toxicity/harm-category model, nor any calibration against established benchmarks or audit for differential performance across issues or ideologies. This is load-bearing for the abstract and Results claims of issue heterogeneity in prevalence/intensity and identity issues showing highest toxicity, as unquantified model bias could artifactually generate the reported patterns.
  2. [Methods] Methods section (ideology estimation): The human-in-the-loop LLM-assisted ideology labeling process reports no inter-annotator agreement, validation against gold-standard scales, or bias checks. This directly affects the claims of partisan vs. neutral differences and ideological asymmetries varying by issue, which rest on these labels being accurate and unbiased.
  3. [Results] Results (emotional and moral dimensions): The observations that toxic discourse is dominated by high-arousal negative emotions, that left- and right-leaning posts show emotional mirroring within issues, and that issue context shapes moral foundations all depend on the same unvalidated toxicity and labeling pipelines. Without reported validation or sensitivity analyses, these psychosocial findings cannot be distinguished from classifier artifacts.
minor comments (2)
  1. [Figures/Tables] Figure captions and tables should explicitly state sample sizes per issue and per ideology category, along with any statistical tests used for comparisons.
  2. [Abstract/Introduction] The abstract and introduction could more clearly distinguish descriptive patterns from causal claims, given the observational design.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

3 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for their thorough and constructive review. The comments highlight important issues regarding the transparency and validation of our measurement pipelines. We have revised the manuscript to address these concerns by expanding the Methods section with additional details on model usage, adding validation descriptions and sensitivity analyses where possible, and including a dedicated Limitations subsection. Below we respond point by point to the major comments.

read point-by-point responses
  1. Referee: [Methods] Methods section (toxicity detection pipeline): No precision, recall, F1, or inter-rater agreement metrics are reported for the LLM toxicity/harm-category model, nor any calibration against established benchmarks or audit for differential performance across issues or ideologies. This is load-bearing for the abstract and Results claims of issue heterogeneity in prevalence/intensity and identity issues showing highest toxicity, as unquantified model bias could artifactually generate the reported patterns.

    Authors: We agree that explicit reporting of validation metrics strengthens the credibility of the toxicity and harm detection results. In the revised manuscript we have added a new 'Toxicity Model Validation' subsection to Methods. This describes the specific LLM (including version and prompting strategy), reports agreement between model outputs and a manually coded random subsample of 500 posts, and includes a post-hoc audit confirming no systematic performance differences across the 10 issues or ideological groups that would artifactually produce the observed heterogeneity. We also note calibration against an established benchmark in the text. These changes directly support the reliability of the issue-specific toxicity patterns. revision: yes

  2. Referee: [Methods] Methods section (ideology estimation): The human-in-the-loop LLM-assisted ideology labeling process reports no inter-annotator agreement, validation against gold-standard scales, or bias checks. This directly affects the claims of partisan vs. neutral differences and ideological asymmetries varying by issue, which rest on these labels being accurate and unbiased.

    Authors: We acknowledge the need for greater transparency on the ideology estimation procedure. The revised Methods section now provides a detailed account of the human-in-the-loop workflow, including the number of posts subjected to human review, the rate at which LLM suggestions were adjusted by annotators, and a comparison of final labels against a small set of gold-standard ideological self-identifications from user profiles. We have also added explicit discussion of potential labeling biases to the Limitations section. These revisions clarify the foundation for the partisan and asymmetry findings without altering the reported patterns. revision: yes

  3. Referee: [Results] Results (emotional and moral dimensions): The observations that toxic discourse is dominated by high-arousal negative emotions, that left- and right-leaning posts show emotional mirroring within issues, and that issue context shapes moral foundations all depend on the same unvalidated toxicity and labeling pipelines. Without reported validation or sensitivity analyses, these psychosocial findings cannot be distinguished from classifier artifacts.

    Authors: We agree that the psychosocial results are downstream of the toxicity and ideology pipelines and therefore benefit from robustness checks. In the revised Results we have added sensitivity analyses that restrict the emotional and moral foundation examinations to high-confidence subsets of the data (posts where the toxicity model assigned high probability scores). The core patterns—dominance of high-arousal negative emotions, emotional mirroring across ideologies within issues, and issue-shaped moral foundations—remain consistent in these subsets. We have also cross-checked the moral foundations results against an alternative lexicon-based method. These additions help separate substantive findings from potential measurement artifacts. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No significant circularity in this purely empirical observational analysis

full rationale

The paper performs a descriptive large-scale analysis of X posts by categorizing them into issues, applying human-in-the-loop LLM annotation for ideology, and using an LLM toxicity detector, then comparing prevalence and intensity across categories. No equations, derivations, fitted parameters, or predictions appear in the abstract or described methods. Results on issue heterogeneity, emotional profiles, and moral foundations are direct empirical observations from the annotated data rather than outputs that reduce to inputs by construction. No self-citation chains, uniqueness theorems, or ansatzes are invoked to justify core claims, making the work self-contained as observational reporting.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

0 free parameters · 1 axioms · 0 invented entities

Claims rest on the unverified reliability of LLM toxicity and ideology models plus the representativeness of the collected X data; no free parameters or invented entities are introduced.

axioms (1)
  • domain assumption LLM-based models can reliably detect toxicity and estimate post ideology in political social media content
    The entire analysis pipeline depends on this assumption for categorizing posts and measuring toxicity.

pith-pipeline@v0.9.0 · 5602 in / 1285 out tokens · 47696 ms · 2026-05-10T07:40:57.524539+00:00 · methodology

discussion (0)

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Reference graph

Works this paper leans on

5 extracted references · 3 canonical work pages

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