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arxiv: 2606.25205 · v2 · pith:SU7U4GH7new · submitted 2026-06-23 · 🌌 astro-ph.CO · astro-ph.GA

A new H₀ measurement with SNe Requiem and Encore using texttt{Gravity.jl}

L. Bazzanini , G. Di Rosa , A. Acebron , P. Bergamini , M. Lombardi , P. Rosati , G. Angora , G. B. Caminha
show 19 more authors
S. Ertl G. Granata A. M. Koekemoer S. H. Suyu J. Pierel A. B. Newman C. Grillo S. Schuldt M. Bulla S. Cha M. D'Addona J. M. Diego M. Fogliardi B. L. Frye M. J. Jee P. S. Kamieneski M. Meneghetti A. Mercurio E. Vanzella
This is my paper

Pith reviewed 2026-06-26 05:40 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 🌌 astro-ph.CO astro-ph.GA
keywords strong gravitational lensingHubble constant measurementType Ia supernovaetime-delay cosmographygalaxy cluster MACS J0138lens modelingSN RequiemSN Encore
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The pith

A joint lens model using time delays from two supernovae in MACS J0138 yields H0 = 67.0 km/s/Mpc.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper constructs a new strong-lensing model of galaxy cluster MACS J0138.0-2155 with the Gravity.jl code and the same set of 23 multiple images used in prior work. It treats the measured time delays of SN Requiem and SN Encore as additional observables while allowing H0 to vary freely during the fit. The resulting posterior gives H0 = 67.0 with asymmetric uncertainties of roughly 12 percent, a value consistent with independent models of the same cluster. The dominant source of uncertainty is the >10 percent statistical error on the time-delay measurements themselves rather than image-position residuals or lens-model freedom. The analysis also forecasts the calendar windows for the next appearances of the delayed counter-images.

Core claim

By allowing H0 to vary and using the measured time delays of both SN Encore and SN Requiem together with their statistical uncertainties as observables, the Bayesian parametric fit jointly constrains the lens parameters and H0, returning H0 = 67.0_{-7.8}^{+9.3} km/s/Mpc.

What carries the argument

Gravity.jl Bayesian parametric lens-modelling framework that folds time-delay measurements directly into the joint posterior alongside image positions.

If this is right

  • The reference mass model predicts SN Encore counter-image reappearance in May-September 2032 and SN Requiem in February-July 2027.
  • The derived H0 remains consistent with values obtained from independent lens models of the same cluster.
  • Current error budget is dominated by time-delay uncertainty, leaving room for improvement once lens-model systematics are controlled.
  • MACS J0138 is positioned as a potential high-precision anchor for cluster-scale time-delay cosmography.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • A successful detection of the 2027 SN Requiem reappearance at the predicted epoch would immediately tighten the H0 constraint by a factor of several if the same lens model is retained.
  • Repeated application of the same joint time-delay plus image-position approach to other cluster lenses could supply an independent local-universe route to H0 that bypasses both Cepheids and the cosmic microwave background.
  • The method shows that multiply-imaged supernovae in clusters can serve as direct cosmological probes once their time delays are measured to better than 10 percent precision.

Load-bearing premise

The measured time delays can be treated as direct observables in the joint fit without substantial unmodeled systematics from lens-model assumptions or supernova light-curve analysis.

What would settle it

An observed reappearance epoch for SN Requiem that falls well outside the predicted February-July 2027 window under the reported H0 posterior would indicate either a discrepant Hubble constant or unaccounted systematics in the time delays or lens model.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2606.25205 by A. Acebron, A. B. Newman, A. Mercurio, A. M. Koekemoer, B. L. Frye, C. Grillo, E. Vanzella, G. Angora, G. B. Caminha, G. Di Rosa, G. Granata, J. M. Diego, J. Pierel, L. Bazzanini, M. Bulla, M. D'Addona, M. Fogliardi, M. J. Jee, M. Lombardi, M. Meneghetti, P. Bergamini, P. Rosati, P. S. Kamieneski, S. Cha, S. Ertl, S. H. Suyu, S. Schuldt.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: M0138 observed with the JWST. The colour composite is constructed from the following filter combinations: F115W [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p003_1.png] view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: Calibration of the Faber–Jackson relation for cluster [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p005_2.png] view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: Positional offsets between the observed and model￾predicted multiple images in MACS J0138. The circles mark the observed image positions, while the arrows indicate the di￾rection and magnitude of the offsets toward the corresponding model-predicted positions. For visual clarity, the arrow lengths have been magnified by a factor of ten relative to the true posi￾tional offsets. The (0, 0) point corresponds t… view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Comparison between the observed and model-predicted SB distribution of the multiply imaged host galaxy MRG-M0138. [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p008_4.png] view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Predicted reappearance time of image 2d of SN Requiem, [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p009_5.png] view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: Comparison of the predicted positions of the multiple images of SN Encore from the [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p010_6.png] view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: Comparison of the predicted positions of the multiple images of SN Requiem from the [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p010_7.png] view at source ↗
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: Marginalised posterior distributions of H0 inferred for M0138. The red posterior shows the constraint obtained with our Gravity.jl model using only the measured time delay of SN Encore, while the blue one shows the result obtained by including the time-delay information from both SN Encore and SN Requiem. For comparison, the grey posterior shows the H0 constraint inferred by Suyu et al. (2026) from a combi… view at source ↗
read the original abstract

We present a strong-lensing (SL) analysis of the galaxy cluster MACS J0138.0-2155 (z=0.336), the first known lens cluster discovered to host two distinct multiply imaged Type Ia supernovae (SNe): SN Requiem and SN Encore. Both SNe are located in the massive, multiply imaged red galaxy MRG-M0138 at z=1.949. The projected total mass of this cluster has been investigated with several independent lens models (Suyu+26; Pierel+26), using a sample of 23 spectroscopically confirmed multiple images from 8 background sources (0.767<z<3.420), identified from HST and JWST imaging data, and VLT/MUSE spectroscopy. In this work, we develop a new SL model based on a novel Bayesian parametric lens-modelling framework $\texttt{Gravity.jl}$, exploiting the same SL dataset. Our reference mass model accurately reproduces the observed image positions, with an image-plane rms image position residual of 0.24''. Assuming H0 = 70 km/s/Mpc, we predict the future reappearances of highly delayed SNe counter-images, finding $D_t(1d,1a) = 3177_{-59}^{+78}$ d (May-September 2032) for SN Encore and $D_t(2d,2a) = 3938_{-77}^{+90}$ d (February-July 2027) for SN Requiem. By allowing H0 to vary, and using the measured time delays of both SN Encore and SN Requiem together with their statistical uncertainties as observables, we infer the value of H0 jointly with the other lens-model free parameters. From this analysis, we obtain a new measurement of $H_0 = 67.0_{-7.8}^{+9.3}$ km/s/Mpc, consistent with the value inferred from the aforementioned independent lens models. This error is currently dominated by the large relative uncertainty on the measured time delays (>10%). The forthcoming reappearance of SN Requiem offers an immediate opportunity to significantly improve constraints on H0, provided that lens-model systematics are controlled. These results establish M0138 as a premier anchor for high-precision cluster-scale TDC.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

2 major / 1 minor

Summary. The manuscript presents a strong-lensing analysis of MACS J0138.0-2155 (z=0.336) hosting two multiply-imaged Type Ia SNe (Requiem and Encore) in MRG-M0138 (z=1.949), using a new Bayesian parametric framework Gravity.jl on the same 23-image dataset as prior models. The reference model achieves 0.24'' image-plane rms; it predicts future counter-image reappearances and infers H0 = 67.0_{-7.8}^{+9.3} km/s/Mpc by jointly varying H0 with lens parameters while treating the measured time delays (with only their quoted statistical uncertainties) as direct observables.

Significance. If the joint fit is shown to be robust, the work introduces a novel open lens-modeling code and supplies an independent cluster-scale time-delay cosmography anchor using two SNe Ia, with explicit future-observation predictions that could tighten constraints. Consistency with independent models is noted as a positive cross-check.

major comments (2)
  1. [Abstract] Abstract (H0 inference paragraph): the central H0 posterior is obtained by treating the measured time delays (>10% relative uncertainty) as direct observables in a joint fit with lens-model parameters, yet no quantitative validation of this joint posterior is supplied—no reported covariances between H0 and lens parameters, no image-plane rms or goodness-of-fit metric for the free-H0 run, and no separate systematic error budget beyond the statement that time-delay uncertainty dominates. This directly affects the reliability of the quoted 67.0_{-7.8}^{+9.3} result.
  2. [H0 inference] H0 inference description: the assumption that the time-delay likelihood contains no substantial unmodeled systematics (microlensing, dust, light-curve modeling choices, or Fermat-potential assumptions in Gravity.jl) is load-bearing for the claim, but the manuscript provides no cross-check or sensitivity test that the quoted statistical uncertainties fully capture the total error; the abstract notes consistency with other models but does not quantify how much of the delay signal could be absorbed into the parametric lens degrees of freedom.
minor comments (1)
  1. [Abstract] The image labeling convention used for the predicted delays (e.g., D_t(1d,1a)) should be defined explicitly when first introduced.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

2 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for the constructive comments on the H0 inference. These points identify areas where additional validation and discussion are needed to strengthen the reliability of the result. We will revise the manuscript accordingly.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: [Abstract] Abstract (H0 inference paragraph): the central H0 posterior is obtained by treating the measured time delays (>10% relative uncertainty) as direct observables in a joint fit with lens-model parameters, yet no quantitative validation of this joint posterior is supplied—no reported covariances between H0 and lens parameters, no image-plane rms or goodness-of-fit metric for the free-H0 run, and no separate systematic error budget beyond the statement that time-delay uncertainty dominates. This directly affects the reliability of the quoted 67.0_{-7.8}^{+9.3} result.

    Authors: We agree that the joint posterior requires explicit validation. In the revised manuscript we will report the covariances between H0 and the lens parameters, the image-plane rms and a goodness-of-fit metric for the free-H0 run, and an expanded systematic error budget that goes beyond the time-delay dominance statement. These additions will appear in both the abstract and the main text. revision: yes

  2. Referee: [H0 inference] H0 inference description: the assumption that the time-delay likelihood contains no substantial unmodeled systematics (microlensing, dust, light-curve modeling choices, or Fermat-potential assumptions in Gravity.jl) is load-bearing for the claim, but the manuscript provides no cross-check or sensitivity test that the quoted statistical uncertainties fully capture the total error; the abstract notes consistency with other models but does not quantify how much of the delay signal could be absorbed into the parametric lens degrees of freedom.

    Authors: We acknowledge the need for sensitivity tests. The revised manuscript will add a dedicated subsection on unmodeled systematics (microlensing, dust, light-curve modeling, and Fermat-potential assumptions) together with explicit sensitivity tests that compare the joint fit against runs with fixed lens parameters. This will quantify the fraction of the delay signal that can be absorbed by the parametric degrees of freedom. A full microlensing simulation is beyond the scope of the present data set and will be noted as future work. revision: partial

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No circularity: H0 inferred from external time-delay observables in joint parametric fit

full rationale

The derivation fits a Gravity.jl parametric lens model to image positions (rms 0.24'') and then uses independently measured SN time delays (with their statistical uncertainties) as additional observables to constrain H0 jointly with lens parameters. The time delays are external data from light-curve timing, not outputs of the model or prior fits; the model predicts Fermat-potential differences scaled by distances (hence H0) and matches them to the observed delays. This is standard time-delay cosmography and does not reduce the reported H0 value to the inputs by construction. Self-citations to Suyu+26/Pierel+26 are only for consistency checks on independent models and are not load-bearing for the central inference. No self-definitional, fitted-input-renamed-as-prediction, or ansatz-smuggling steps appear in the quoted abstract or described chain.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

2 free parameters · 1 axioms · 0 invented entities

The central claim rests on the parametric lens model in Gravity.jl, the cosmological distance-time-delay relation, and the assumption that the identified multiple images and their redshifts are correct; H0 itself is a fitted parameter.

free parameters (2)
  • H0
    Fitted jointly with lens parameters using time delays as observables.
  • lens model parameters
    Multiple free parameters in the Bayesian parametric mass model.
axioms (1)
  • domain assumption Standard flat Lambda-CDM background cosmology relating time delays to angular-diameter distances and H0
    Invoked when converting observed time delays into an H0 constraint.

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