Probabilistic function-on-function nonlinear autoregressive model for emulation and reliability analysis of stochastic dynamical systems

Constructing accurate and computationally efficient surrogate models (or emulators) for predicting dynamical system responses is critical in many engineering domains, yet remains challenging due to the strongly nonlinear and high-dimensional mapping from external excitations and system parameters to system responses. This work introduces a novel Function-on-Function Nonlinear AutoRegressive model with eXogenous inputs (F2NARX), which reformulates the recently proposed $\mathcal{F}$-NARX method from a function-on-function regression perspective. The proposed framework substantially improves predictive efficiency while maintaining high accuracy. By combining principal component analysis with Gaussian process regression, F2NARX further enables probabilistic predictions of dynamical responses via the unscented transform in an autoregressive manner. Such probabilistic prediction capabilities further facilitate active learning for first-passage probability evaluation. The effectiveness of the method is demonstrated through case studies of varying complexity. Results show that F2NARX outperforms state-of-the-art NARX model by orders of magnitude in efficiency while achieving higher accuracy in general. Meanwhile, the active learning approach enables accurate estimation of first-passage failure probabilities for dynamical systems using only a small number of training time histories.