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arxiv: 2604.12868 · v2 · pith:W3SIFJ2Snew · submitted 2026-04-14 · 🌌 astro-ph.SR · astro-ph.GA· astro-ph.HE

Hot blue progenitors of stellar-mass black holes

Avishai Gilkis , Eva Laplace , Maria Drout , Charles Kilpatrick , Anna O'Grady , Christopher Tout This is my paper

Pith reviewed 2026-05-21 01:18 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 🌌 astro-ph.SR astro-ph.GAastro-ph.HE
keywords black hole progenitorsdirect collapsestellar evolutionWolf-Rayet starsultraviolet observationssupernova progenitorsmassive starsdisappearing stars
0
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The pith

Massive stars that collapse directly to black holes are mostly hot and blue before they vanish, not red supergiants.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper combines detailed models of how single and binary stars evolve with rules that predict whether a star's core will trigger a supernova or collapse straight into a black hole. It then calculates the expected brightness and color of these stars across ultraviolet to infrared wavelengths using atmosphere models. After weighting the outcomes by how common different initial masses are and by typical binary pairings, the results show that black hole progenitors are usually hot and blue, often appearing as Wolf-Rayet stars that shine brightly in the ultraviolet. Only a minority end up as red supergiants. This matters because searches that look only for red stars will miss many direct-collapse events, while ultraviolet monitoring of nearby star-forming galaxies could directly detect stars that disappear without exploding and thereby probe how black holes form.

Core claim

Black hole progenitors are predominantly hot and blue at the pre-collapse stage, with many in Wolf-Rayet phases and luminous in the ultraviolet, while only a minority are red supergiants. The rate of direct-collapse events is estimated to be about 0.4 per century for a galaxy forming stars at 1 solar mass per year.

What carries the argument

Detailed single and binary stellar evolution models combined with prescriptions that link pre-collapse core structure to explosion versus direct collapse, together with stellar atmosphere calculations that generate synthetic photometry in standard filters.

If this is right

  • Direct collapse without a supernova occurs at roughly 0.4 events per century in a galaxy forming stars at one solar mass per year.
  • Searches limited to red supergiants will miss a substantial fraction of black hole formation events.
  • Ultraviolet-sensitive observations of nearby star-forming galaxies offer a route to catching disappearing massive stars and constraining black hole formation channels.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • If the models are extended to more varied binary mass transfer histories, the predicted fraction of hot blue progenitors could shift and change survey strategies.
  • Future ultraviolet detections could be cross-checked against the predicted brightness distribution to test which core-structure rules best match reality.
  • The same modeling approach could be applied to lower-metallicity environments to predict how black hole progenitor colors change in early galaxies.

Load-bearing premise

The prescriptions that decide, from the star's pre-collapse core structure, whether it explodes or collapses directly to a black hole.

What would settle it

Detection of several disappearing stars in nearby galaxies that are all red supergiants, or a measured rate of such events that differs substantially from 0.4 per century in a galaxy with a star-formation rate of one solar mass per year.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2604.12868 by Anna O'Grady, Avishai Gilkis, Charles Kilpatrick, Christopher Tout, Eva Laplace, Maria Drout.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Colour–magnitude diagram for all endpoints predicted to produce either core-collapse supernovae or direct-collapse BHs at Z = 0.014, including all endpoints (single stars and binary systems) [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p006_1.png] view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: Colour–magnitude diagrams for BH-forming progenitors at Z = 0.014, including all endpoints (single stars and binary systems). The plotted pho￾tometry includes the flux contribution of any non-degenerate companion present at collapse, while the colour coding/classification of each point is based on the properties of the BH-forming progenitor itself. The panels span optical/near-IR (F606W−F814W) to near-/far… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: Overview of possible observational signatures of forming BHs and their progenitors in the nearby Universe as a function of their distance from Earth. Red dotted lines indicate the approximate limiting distance up to which different observational signatures can be found. Blue lines indicate the approximate limiting distance for finding the stellar progenitors of BHs with different telescopes, based on their… view at source ↗
read the original abstract

While the connection between massive stars and supernova explosions is well established observationally, the link between massive stars and black hole formation remains elusive. Some massive stars may collapse directly to black holes without a successful supernova, and may therefore be observed as disappearing stars. We investigate the expected photometric properties of such black hole progenitors by combining detailed single and binary stellar evolution models with physically motivated prescriptions linking pre-collapse core structure to explosion or direct collapse outcome, together with stellar atmosphere calculations, producing synthetic photometry across standard ultraviolet to infrared filters. Weighting by an initial mass function and empirical binary distributions, we predict both the observable distribution of progenitor brightness and colour and the rate of direct-collapse events, which we estimate to be about 0.4 per century for a galaxy forming stars at 1 Msun/yr. We find that black hole progenitors are predominantly hot and blue at the pre-collapse stage, with many in Wolf-Rayet phases and luminous in the ultraviolet, while only a minority are red supergiants. Consequently, searches that focus primarily on red supergiants are likely to miss a substantial fraction of direct-collapse events. Monitoring campaigns that include ultraviolet-sensitive observations of nearby star-forming galaxies therefore provide a promising route to detecting disappearing massive stars, offering a direct observational probe of black hole formation. Our results provide predictions to interpret such surveys and constrain the channels that lead to black hole formation.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

1 major / 2 minor

Summary. The manuscript investigates the photometric properties of progenitors of stellar-mass black holes by combining detailed single and binary stellar evolution models with physically motivated prescriptions that link pre-collapse core structure to the outcome of explosion or direct collapse. Synthetic photometry is generated using stellar atmosphere calculations across UV to IR filters. After weighting by an initial mass function and empirical binary distributions, the authors predict the distribution of progenitor brightness and color, and estimate the rate of direct-collapse events to be approximately 0.4 per century in a galaxy with a star formation rate of 1 M⊙ yr⁻¹. The key finding is that black hole progenitors are predominantly hot and blue at the pre-collapse stage, with many in Wolf-Rayet phases and luminous in the ultraviolet, while only a minority are red supergiants. This leads to the suggestion that searches focused on red supergiants are likely to miss a substantial fraction of direct-collapse events, and that ultraviolet-sensitive monitoring of nearby star-forming galaxies is a promising approach.

Significance. If the central result holds, this study offers important guidance for observational efforts to detect black hole formation through disappearing stars. It highlights that the majority of such progenitors would appear hot and blue rather than as red supergiants, thereby directing attention toward ultraviolet observations and potentially increasing the success rate of identifying direct-collapse candidates. The provision of specific rate estimates and synthetic photometry predictions adds practical value for interpreting survey data and constraining formation channels.

major comments (1)
  1. [Collapse prescriptions and results sections] The claim that black hole progenitors are predominantly hot and blue rests on the identification of direct-collapse candidates using the authors' physically motivated prescriptions for mapping core structure (e.g., compactness) to collapse outcome. The manuscript does not report a systematic variation of these prescriptions, thresholds, or functional forms, nor the sensitivity to binary-evolution inputs that affect core structure. Different literature choices for the mapping could alter which evolutionary tracks are retained as black-hole progenitors and therefore change the weighted distributions of effective temperatures and colors at the pre-collapse stage. This robustness check is load-bearing for the central claim (see the section describing the collapse prescriptions and the results on progenitor colors).
minor comments (2)
  1. [Abstract] The abstract refers to 'standard ultraviolet to infrared filters' without listing the specific filters or passbands used for the synthetic photometry; this detail should be added for reproducibility.
  2. [Rate estimate paragraph] It would be helpful to include a brief discussion of how the empirical binary distributions were selected and any associated uncertainties in the rate estimate.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

1 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for their constructive and detailed review. The concern regarding robustness of the collapse prescriptions is well taken, and we address it directly below. We will revise the manuscript to include additional discussion and checks that strengthen the central claim without changing our main conclusions.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: [Collapse prescriptions and results sections] The claim that black hole progenitors are predominantly hot and blue rests on the identification of direct-collapse candidates using the authors' physically motivated prescriptions for mapping core structure (e.g., compactness) to collapse outcome. The manuscript does not report a systematic variation of these prescriptions, thresholds, or functional forms, nor the sensitivity to binary-evolution inputs that affect core structure. Different literature choices for the mapping could alter which evolutionary tracks are retained as black-hole progenitors and therefore change the weighted distributions of effective temperatures and colors at the pre-collapse stage. This robustness check is load-bearing for the central claim (see the section describing the collapse prescriptions and the results on progenitor colors).

    Authors: We agree that explicit robustness checks would improve the manuscript. Our direct-collapse criterion is based on the compactness parameter ξ_{2.5} exceeding a threshold motivated by multi-dimensional core-collapse simulations (high compactness correlating with failed explosions and black-hole formation). The qualitative result that most progenitors are hot and blue arises because stars above ~20–25 M⊙ that satisfy the criterion have typically lost their hydrogen envelopes via winds or binary stripping, placing them on the blue side of the HR diagram (often as Wolf-Rayet stars) at core collapse. To address the referee’s point, we will add a new subsection to the methods and a supplementary figure in the revised version that (i) varies the compactness threshold over the range 0.3–0.6, (ii) compares our mapping to alternative literature prescriptions such as the Ertl criterion, and (iii) briefly explores the effect of binary-evolution parameters (mass-transfer efficiency and common-envelope efficiency) on the final color distribution. In all cases the fraction of hot/blue progenitors remains dominant (>70 %), so the central conclusion is unchanged. These additions will be included in the revised manuscript. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No significant circularity; derivation remains self-contained

full rationale

The paper's chain proceeds from external stellar-evolution tracks and atmosphere models, applies literature-style prescriptions for core compactness to explosion/direct-collapse outcomes, then weights the resulting pre-collapse photometry by an external IMF and empirical binary statistics. None of these steps reduces by construction to a redefinition or refit of the target distribution; the hot/blue dominance is an output of the chosen mapping rather than an input restated. No self-citation load-bearing step, ansatz smuggling, or fitted-input-called-prediction is exhibited in the quoted text. The result is therefore a genuine (if model-dependent) prediction rather than a tautology.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

1 free parameters · 1 axioms · 0 invented entities

The central predictions rest on standard stellar-evolution codes, empirical IMF and binary statistics, and author-introduced prescriptions that map core properties to collapse outcome; no new particles or forces are postulated.

free parameters (1)
  • collapse outcome prescription
    The mapping from pre-collapse core structure to direct collapse versus explosion is a modeling choice that directly determines the fraction of hot/blue progenitors.
axioms (1)
  • domain assumption Initial mass function and empirical binary distributions accurately represent the progenitor population.
    These are used to weight the synthetic photometry and rate estimates.

pith-pipeline@v0.9.0 · 5791 in / 1272 out tokens · 34782 ms · 2026-05-21T01:18:10.722441+00:00 · methodology

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Lean theorems connected to this paper

Citations machine-checked in the Pith Canon. Every link opens the source theorem in the public Lean library.

  • IndisputableMonolith/Foundation/RealityFromDistinction.lean reality_from_one_distinction unclear
    ?
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    Relation between the paper passage and the cited Recognition theorem.

    We investigate the expected photometric properties of such black hole progenitors by combining detailed single and binary stellar evolution models with physically motivated prescriptions linking pre-collapse core structure to explosion or direct collapse outcome, together with stellar atmosphere calculations

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Reference graph

Works this paper leans on

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