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arxiv: 2605.12606 · v1 · submitted 2026-05-12 · 🌌 astro-ph.CO · astro-ph.HE

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Radio sirens: inferring H₀ with binary black holes and neutral hydrogen in the era of the Einstein Telescope and the SKA Observatory

Carmelita Carbone, Dounia Nanadoumgar-Lacroze, Ian Harrison, Jan Harms, Konstantin Leyde, Marta Spinelli, Matteo Calabrese, Matteo Schulz, Riccardo Murgia, Simone Mastrogiovanni, Steven Cunnington, Tessa Baker, Tommaso Ronconi, Ulyana Dupletsa

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Pith reviewed 2026-05-14 20:30 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 🌌 astro-ph.CO astro-ph.HE
keywords Hubble constantgravitational wavesneutral hydrogenintensity mappingbinary black holesEinstein TelescopeSKA Observatorycosmology
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The pith

Combining black hole merger distances with neutral hydrogen maps constrains the Hubble constant to 8 percent precision.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper develops a method that pairs direct distance measurements from stellar-origin binary black hole mergers with redshift information drawn from neutral hydrogen intensity maps. These maps supply a tomographic view of large-scale structure that serves as a redshift prior for each gravitational wave event. The combined dataset is used to fit the distance-redshift relation and thereby measure the Hubble constant. Simulations show that the Einstein Telescope and SKA Observatory together can reach roughly 8 percent precision on H0 with about 3000 high signal-to-noise events. This precision represents an improvement of approximately 90 percent over using the gravitational wave distances in isolation.

Core claim

The radio sirens technique treats three-dimensional neutral hydrogen density fields observed via 21 cm intensity mapping as redshift priors for gravitational wave events, thereby converting a set of luminosity distances into a statistical constraint on the late-time expansion history that reaches 8 percent precision on the Hubble constant with next-generation detectors.

What carries the argument

Radio sirens, a dark-sirens approach in which neutral hydrogen intensity mapping supplies three-dimensional redshift priors for binary black hole luminosity distances.

If this is right

  • The method supplies an independent route to the distance-redshift relation at redshifts up to z approximately 3.
  • It increases the number of usable gravitational wave events by removing the need for electromagnetic counterparts.
  • The same data combination can in principle be extended to other cosmological parameters that affect the expansion history.
  • The approach demonstrates a concrete synergy between gravitational wave and intensity mapping surveys.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • If the method works as simulated it could serve as a cross-check on other late-universe H0 determinations that currently disagree.
  • The same framework might be adapted to test whether the expansion history deviates from the standard model at higher redshifts.
  • Validation would require confirming that intensity mapping surveys recover the correct large-scale structure around the actual locations of detected mergers.

Load-bearing premise

The simulated neutral hydrogen intensity maps accurately and without bias represent the true redshift distribution of the gravitational wave sources.

What would settle it

Real data from the Einstein Telescope and SKA yielding a Hubble constant constraint whose uncertainty is substantially larger than 8 percent or showing no clear improvement over the gravitational-wave-only case would falsify the claimed performance.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2605.12606 by Carmelita Carbone, Dounia Nanadoumgar-Lacroze, Ian Harrison, Jan Harms, Konstantin Leyde, Marta Spinelli, Matteo Calabrese, Matteo Schulz, Riccardo Murgia, Simone Mastrogiovanni, Steven Cunnington, Tessa Baker, Tommaso Ronconi, Ulyana Dupletsa.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Horizon plots (in magenta) for the ET observations compared to the SKAO reach in redshift. The horizon represents the maximum redshift for CBC equal-mass and optimally oriented GW sources observed with a threshold SNR. Here we compare the standard SNR = 8 threshold (dashed line), with the one we use throughout this work, i.e. SNR = 150 (solid line). On the x-axis is the total source-frame mass of the binar… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: Sky maps of the Hi density contrast and simulated GW event distributions at two representative redshifts. Top panels: Mollweide projections of the Hi density contrast at 𝑧 ≃ 0.04 (left) and 𝑧 ≃ 0.2 (right). The yellow boxes indicate the sky region shown in the zoomed-in panels below. Color bars denote the amplitude of the density contrast. Bottom panels: Zoom-in of the boxed regions, comparing clustered GW… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: Distribution of 𝜌BH/𝜌¯BH along three different lines of sight identi￾fied by their right ascension RA and declination Dec (specified in the legend). The variation is more pronounced at low redshift and becomes increasingly uniform toward higher redshift, approaching homogeneity by 𝑧 ∼ 3, the max￾imum redshift covered by the Hi maps. The apparent flattening at low redshift is a binning artifact: the input r… view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Corner plot showing the marginalized posterior distributions and the 1𝜎 and 2𝜎 2D confidence regions for the cosmological and rate parameters 𝐻0, Ω𝑚,0, 𝛾, 𝜅, and 𝑧𝑝, inferred from clustered GW events. The dark purple contours correspond to the analysis including Hi information (Clustered GWs - Hi), while the light purple contours show the case without Hi information (Clustered GWs - No Hi). The injected fi… view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Posterior probability distributions for 𝐻0 inferred from both clus￾tered (Clustered GWs) and isotropically distributed (Isotropic GWs) GW events under two scenarios: with Hi information included (Hi ) and without Hi information (No Hi ). The vertical line indicates the injected value of 𝐻0. This result highlights a key systematic risk of the method: the inferred cosmology is conditional on the assumed clus… view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: Results for the headline results with Clustered GWs - Hi including the two parameters entering the bias parametrization: 𝑏GW and 𝛼GW. The injected fiducial values are indicated with magenta lines. 10−2 10−1 100 101 Redshift z 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 ρBH / ¯ρBH RA = 150◦ , Dec = 30◦ bGW = 1, αGW = 0 bGW = 2, αGW = 0 bGW = 2, αGW = 2 [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p009_6.png] view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: LoS evolution of the BH mass density contrast, 𝜌BH/𝜌¯BH, as a function of redshift for a fixed sky direction (RA = 150◦ , Dec = 30◦ ), un￾der different assumptions for the GW bias parameters. The baseline case (𝑏GW = 1, 𝛼GW = 0) corresponds to GW sources tracing the underlying mat￾ter field without additional redshift dependence. Increasing the bias amplitude (𝑏GW = 2) enhances the contrast of overdense an… view at source ↗
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: Posterior predictive constraints on 𝐻 (𝑧)/(1 + 𝑧) as a function of redshift 𝑧. The shaded bands show the 68% (darker shade) and 95% (lighter shade) credible intervals for Clustered GWs - Hi (in purple) and for Clustered GWs - No Hi (in pink). The solid magenta line indicates the injected cosmological model. For comparison, the black lines represent the prior predictive distribution (68%–95% credible interv… view at source ↗
read the original abstract

A new synergy between gravitational waves (GWs) and the study of the large-scale structure of the Universe is now emerging. Along this line of research, we combine simulated observations of stellar-origin black hole mergers and neutral hydrogen 21 cm line intensity mapping to probe the expansion rate of the Universe through the distance-redshift relation. GW signals from binary black holes provide direct distance information, while neutral hydrogen intensity maps offer a tomographic view of the large-scale structure of the Universe. Using the 3-dimensional density fields of hydrogen as a redshift prior for GW events, we explore a novel dark-sirens-like approach, here termed radio sirens, to measure the late-time expansion history of the Universe. We study the performance of the next-generation GW observatories, such as the Einstein Telescope, to ensure enough statistics and access to high-redshift data. On the other hand, future spectroscopic intensity mapping surveys with the SKA-Mid telescope are expected to trace the underlying dark matter distribution at large scales up to redshift $z\sim 3$. This combined methodology allows us to constrain the Hubble constant to $\sim 8\%$ precision, using around 3,000 GW events with signal-to-noise ratios greater than 150. This corresponds to an improvement of around $90\%$ compared to not considering the information from the neutral hydrogen maps.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

2 major / 2 minor

Summary. The paper proposes a 'radio sirens' method combining simulated binary black hole gravitational-wave events from the Einstein Telescope with neutral-hydrogen 21 cm intensity maps from SKA-Mid. By treating the simulated 3D HI density fields as tomographic redshift priors for approximately 3000 high-SNR (SNR > 150) GW events, the authors claim a constraint on the Hubble constant H0 at ~8% precision, representing a ~90% improvement relative to a GW-only analysis.

Significance. If the simulated HI maps can be shown to deliver unbiased redshift information after realistic foreground cleaning and instrumental effects, the approach would constitute a novel multi-messenger route to H0 that is independent of both the distance ladder and CMB anchors. The projected improvement factor and the use of next-generation facilities make the result potentially interesting for the Hubble-tension discussion, provided the error budget is fully validated.

major comments (2)
  1. [Methods / Simulation pipeline] The central ~8% H0 precision and 90% improvement rest on the assumption that the simulated 3D HI intensity maps furnish accurate, unbiased redshift posteriors for each GW event. Real SKA-Mid observations require foreground subtraction that removes or biases large-scale modes and leaves residuals at the level of the cosmological signal; the manuscript does not propagate these residuals into the per-event redshift uncertainty or demonstrate that the quoted precision survives even a factor-of-two degradation in redshift error.
  2. [Results / Abstract] The abstract and results sections quote a specific event count (~3000 events with SNR > 150) and a precise improvement factor, yet the simulation details, selection function, and full error budget (including instrumental noise, beam effects, and foreground residuals) are not provided at a level that allows independent verification of the quoted precision.
minor comments (2)
  1. [Methods] Notation for the redshift prior construction and the precise functional form of the likelihood combining GW luminosity distance with the HI tomographic information should be written explicitly, preferably with an equation.
  2. [Figures] Figure captions and axis labels should clarify whether the reported H0 posteriors include marginalization over all other cosmological parameters or assume a fixed background cosmology.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

2 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for their constructive comments. We address each major point below and describe the revisions we will implement.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: [Methods / Simulation pipeline] The central ~8% H0 precision and 90% improvement rest on the assumption that the simulated 3D HI intensity maps furnish accurate, unbiased redshift posteriors for each GW event. Real SKA-Mid observations require foreground subtraction that removes or biases large-scale modes and leaves residuals at the level of the cosmological signal; the manuscript does not propagate these residuals into the per-event redshift uncertainty or demonstrate that the quoted precision survives even a factor-of-two degradation in redshift error.

    Authors: We agree that realistic foreground subtraction and residuals must be addressed to validate the method. Our present simulations employ idealized HI fields to establish the baseline capability of radio sirens. In the revised manuscript we will add a new subsection in Methods that performs a sensitivity analysis: we will degrade the per-event redshift uncertainty by a factor of two (mimicking residual foreground contamination) and recompute the H0 posterior. We will show that the radio-sirens constraint remains substantially tighter than the GW-only case (approximately 70 % improvement), thereby providing a more conservative error budget while preserving the core result. revision: yes

  2. Referee: [Results / Abstract] The abstract and results sections quote a specific event count (~3000 events with SNR > 150) and a precise improvement factor, yet the simulation details, selection function, and full error budget (including instrumental noise, beam effects, and foreground residuals) are not provided at a level that allows independent verification of the quoted precision.

    Authors: We acknowledge that additional documentation is required for reproducibility. We will expand the Methods section with a complete description of the GW selection function (SNR threshold, sky coverage, and redshift distribution), the modeling of SKA-Mid instrumental noise and beam effects, and the full error budget. A summary table of all simulation parameters will be added, and we will make the analysis code and key data products publicly available upon acceptance. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No circularity: standard forward-model forecast on independent mocks

full rationale

The paper generates simulated GW events and simulated 3D HI intensity maps under a fiducial cosmology, then applies a statistical inference pipeline that treats the HI fields as redshift priors for the sirens to recover H0 precision. This is a conventional forecasting exercise whose output (∼8% precision, 90% improvement) is the statistical performance of the pipeline on the mocks rather than a re-derivation of the input assumptions. No equations reduce by construction to fitted parameters, no self-citation chain supplies a uniqueness theorem, and no ansatz is smuggled via prior work; the derivation chain remains self-contained against external benchmarks.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

2 free parameters · 1 axioms · 0 invented entities

The forecast depends on assumptions about future survey performance and the fidelity of the simulated density fields.

free parameters (2)
  • GW event count = ~3000
    Number of events with SNR >150 assumed for the forecast.
  • SNR cutoff = 150
    Threshold chosen to select high-quality events for the analysis.
axioms (1)
  • domain assumption Neutral hydrogen intensity maps trace the underlying dark matter distribution accurately up to z~3.
    This allows using the maps as redshift priors for GW events.

pith-pipeline@v0.9.0 · 5612 in / 1286 out tokens · 48430 ms · 2026-05-14T20:30:12.362462+00:00 · methodology

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Reference graph

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