Quantitative Bayesian inference using a deep-learning emulator detects 0.018-0.020 M_sun of helium in the Type Ic supernova 2014L.
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A trans-dimensional Bayesian model set averaging framework for 13C-MFA that averages flux estimates over uncertain network topologies using reversible jump MCMC and diffusive nested sampling.
Introduces a generalized fast framework for modeling interaction-powered transients with arbitrary CSM profiles and multi-wavelength outputs.
Joint speckle-atmosphere retrievals on JWST spectra of HD 19467 B and a field T dwarf detect H2O, CH4, CO, CO2 and NH3, yield carbon isotopic ratios of 154 and 85 respectively, and show near-solar metallicity with subsolar C/O.
Slice Monte Carlo integration partitions parameter space with a surrogate to enable variance-reduced stratified Monte Carlo estimation of integrals involving expensive target functions.
A simulation-based inference method with Gaussian process emulators trained on 1300 kilonova simulations recovers parameters accurately and rapidly while avoiding MCMC biases from likelihood misspecification.
A new quintessence model with non-minimal coupling produces an effective sign-switching interaction that fits current data better than LambdaCDM or w0waCDM and accounts for late-time dark energy weakening without phantom crossing.
Customized chromatic noise models for 67 pulsars detect non-dispersive delays in 21 cases, alter achromatic noise inferences in 19, and enable solar wind density estimates over 1.5 cycles.
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Trans-dimensional Bayesian model averaging for $^{13}$C-based metabolic flux analysis: Evidence-based flux inference under structural model uncertainty
A trans-dimensional Bayesian model set averaging framework for 13C-MFA that averages flux estimates over uncertain network topologies using reversible jump MCMC and diffusive nested sampling.