MACROCAST is the first leakage-free time series foundation model for real-time macroeconomic forecasting, trained exclusively on synthetic series and vintage data, outperforming AR(1), Chronos-2, BVAR, and DFM benchmarks on FRED-MD.
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18 Pith papers cite this work. Polarity classification is still indexing.
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Introduces TSBM, a new Bayesian model for directed networks that enforces ordered blocks via transitivity-inducing priors on directional imbalance and jointly infers block count with an age-ordered partition prior.
Introduces zero-inflated Gaussian distributions for EDAs to jointly optimize sparsity patterns and active parameter values without bi-level schemes or custom operators.
Proposes a scale-calibrated median-of-means estimator for robust aggregation of distributed PCA estimates on the product of Euclidean space and Grassmann manifold.
Introduces bridge score for covariate balancing in mediator stage and derives sharp pointwise variance bounds on unidentified mediator-outcome confounding with residual budget calibration and Bayesian inference.
The profile maximum likelihood estimator for the location in anisotropic hyperbolic wrapped normal models is strongly consistent, asymptotically normal, and attains the Hájek-Le Cam minimax lower bound under squared geodesic loss.
Proposes FDR-controlling posterior decision rules for signal detection under horseshoe and similar continuous shrinkage priors that attain the optimal detection boundary with asymptotic FDR and FNR control in sparse normal means models.
Proposes sBDCA with preconditioning for the LTS estimator, claiming up to 3.25 times faster runtime and up to 90% lower objective values than Fast-LTS on synthetic and real data.
EM algorithm for two-component exponential mixtures converges at sub-exponential rate in O(log n) iterations under generalized separation assumptions.
The IM interval is the shortest valid prior-free procedure for the Behrens-Fisher problem, established via cylindrical predictive random sets, minimaxity, admissibility, and a projection argument.
Rashomon-seeded annealing repurposes Rashomon sets as warm starts for annealed importance sampling to enable full posterior inference in factorial designs without exhaustive enumeration.
Proves well-posedness and unique invariant measure (delta at 0 plus gamma density) for sticky CIR, derives Green's function for exact sampling, and analyzes MH and ULA samplers with explicit bias for the potential case via Girsanov.
Joint location-scale minimization for geometric medians on product manifolds degenerates to marginal medians, and three new scale-selection methods restore identifiability with asymptotic guarantees.
UMI is an asymmetric version of the Tukey bisquare estimator with upper-RMS scaling that improves transit signal recovery while running much faster on GPUs.
StatsClaw is a multi-agent AI workflow that separates code implementation, data simulation, and testing via information barriers to produce faithful statistical software while keeping human control over methodological choices.
Proves oracle Bernstein-von Mises theorem for fractional posterior under supportwise likelihood assumptions in sparse GLMs with spike-and-slab priors.
A robust test for isotropy in 2D lattice data is introduced using robust variogram estimators and block permutation resampling to control significance levels under strong dependence and outliers.
A nine-camera multi-view workflow with 4D Gaussian Splatting reconstructs dynamic vessel surfaces in thrombectomy phantoms to enable standardized comparative displacement and stress-proxy tracking.
citing papers explorer
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Ordering Stochastic Block Models via prior transitivity
Introduces TSBM, a new Bayesian model for directed networks that enforces ordered blocks via transitivity-inducing priors on directional imbalance and jointly infers block count with an age-ordered partition prior.
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4D Vessel Reconstruction for Benchtop Thrombectomy Analysis
A nine-camera multi-view workflow with 4D Gaussian Splatting reconstructs dynamic vessel surfaces in thrombectomy phantoms to enable standardized comparative displacement and stress-proxy tracking.