The first informative astrophysical calibration of gravitational-wave detectors is reported using GW240925 and GW250207.
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Prospects for Observing and Localizing Gravitational-Wave Transients with Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo and KAGRA
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abstract
We present our current best estimate of the plausible observing scenarios for the Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo and KAGRA gravitational-wave detectors over the next several years, with the intention of providing information to facilitate planning for multi-messenger astronomy with gravitational waves. We estimate the sensitivity of the network to transient gravitational-wave signals for the third (O3), fourth (O4) and fifth observing (O5) runs, including the planned upgrades of the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. We study the capability of the network to determine the sky location of the source for gravitational-wave signals from the inspiral of binary systems of compact objects, that is BNS, NSBH, and BBH systems. The ability to localize the sources is given as a sky-area probability, luminosity distance, and comoving volume. The median sky localization area (90\% credible region) is expected to be a few hundreds of square degrees for all types of binary systems during O3 with the Advanced LIGO and Virgo (HLV) network. The median sky localization area will improve to a few tens of square degrees during O4 with the Advanced LIGO, Virgo, and KAGRA (HLVK) network. We evaluate sensitivity and localization expectations for unmodeled signal searches, including the search for intermediate mass black hole binary mergers.
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representative citing papers
O(G^4) gravitational wave scattering amplitude computed in worldline QFT with Murua decomposition, matched to black hole perturbation theory to validate the formalism for Schwarzschild black holes.
First leading-PN derivation of horizon absorption in eccentric precessing BBH inspirals, incorporated into pyEFPEHM, with estimates showing parameter biases in eccentric systems at moderate SNR.
A cross-correlation search of ~11,000 event pairs in GWTC-4 including sub-threshold candidates finds no lensed GW pairs above 3σ, setting an upper bound of ≤1.5/yr on the lensing rate.
Numerical simulations of equal-mass boson-star mergers reveal larger waveform deviations from black-hole binaries in late inspiral and merger, plus odd multipole excitations for certain scalar-field phases, with some signals degenerate until IMR consistency tests are applied.
The gwNRHME framework constructs a multi-modal non-spinning eccentric gravitational waveform surrogate by modulating quasi-circular models with universal eccentric functions, achieving median mismatches of ~9e-5 against 156 NR waveforms.
Ratio-Filter Dechirping converts gravitational-wave matched filtering from a memory-bound FFT into a cache-efficient FIR convolution, delivering a measured 8x speedup in the core loop.
A new harmonic-decomposition template search for precessing binary black holes in LIGO O3 data improves sensitivity by up to 28% and reduces computational cost by up to 5x with no new detections.
Bubble collisions in a seesaw model produce right-handed neutrinos that source novel gravitational waves detectable by LISA, ET, and LVK while allowing the lightest RHN to explain dark matter or enable leptogenesis.
A unified framework for the perturbed Kepler problem derives modified eccentric orbits and gravitational wave imprints from a general perturbed potential, offering a source-specific alternative to post-Newtonian expansions.
LIGO and Virgo detected 39 compact binary coalescence events in O3a, including 13 new ones, with black hole binaries up to 150 solar masses and the first significantly asymmetric mass ratios.
Detection of GW190814 from the coalescence of a 23 solar-mass black hole and a 2.6 solar-mass compact object, the most unequal-mass binary yet observed with gravitational waves.
Defines peak-integrated sensitivity curves (PISCs) that fold in the expected spectral shape of gravitational waves from cosmological phase transitions and supplies semianalytical fits plus public data for major detectors.
Mode-by-mode filtering of higher-order modes enables low-latency marginalization over mode information in NSBH gravitational-wave signals, tightening constraints on distance, inclination, and secondary mass.
Mass ratio reversals produce qualitatively different contributions to BBH merger rates and masses in COMPAS versus SEVN simulations, with core-growth dominating and most systems arising from massive low-metallicity progenitors.
Bayesian analysis finds individual QNM frequencies near avoided crossings hard to resolve even under optimistic conditions, though collective AC waveform signatures may remain detectable if those modes dominate and slower-mode contamination is minimal.
The NLO gravitational spin-orbit Hamiltonian for N spinning bodies is computed via PN-EFT, with only three-body diagrams new beyond the binary case, and the result matches the known ADM Hamiltonian up to canonical transformation.
Two new surrogate models, trained on NR simulations, predict remnant properties and eccentricity dynamics for nonspinning eccentric black hole binaries with q ≤ 4 and e < 0.23.
Normalizing flows replace binned histograms for estimating multi-detector signal parameters in PyCBC, slashing storage by three orders of magnitude with under 0.05% sensitivity loss and up to 6.55% gains in specific cases.
Neural network surrogate approximates precessing compact binary gravitational waveforms up to 1000x faster than the base EOB model with validated accuracy.
pyEFPEHM extends prior PN models to include higher-order quasi-circular phasing, generalized precession solutions, and eccentric corrections up to 1PN in selected multipoles for eccentric precessing binaries with matter effects.
Simulations show a 40-50 solar-mass black-hole cutoff is not guaranteed to be confidently recovered from GWTC-4-like catalogs, spurious detections are unlikely, and O4 data would reduce cutoff-mass uncertainty by at least 20 percent while yielding only a lower bound on the carbon-alpha reaction rate
Semi-analytic waveform model for scalar environments around black hole binaries is validated against numerical relativity and applied to LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA data to obtain upper limits on scalar densities with tentative evidence in GW190728.
GW250114 data confirm the remnant is consistent with a Kerr black hole and bound the dominant quadrupolar mode frequency to within a few percent of the GR prediction, with constraints tighter than prior multi-event catalogs.
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Including higher-order modes in a quadrupolar eccentric numerical relativity surrogate using universal eccentric modulation functions
The gwNRHME framework constructs a multi-modal non-spinning eccentric gravitational waveform surrogate by modulating quasi-circular models with universal eccentric functions, achieving median mismatches of ~9e-5 against 156 NR waveforms.
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Measurement prospects for the pair-instability mass cutoff with gravitational waves
Simulations show a 40-50 solar-mass black-hole cutoff is not guaranteed to be confidently recovered from GWTC-4-like catalogs, spurious detections are unlikely, and O4 data would reduce cutoff-mass uncertainty by at least 20 percent while yielding only a lower bound on the carbon-alpha reaction rate
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Quasi-resonances in the vicinity of Einstein-Maxwell-dilaton black hole
Increasing the mass of a perturbing scalar field around Einstein-Maxwell-dilaton black holes strongly suppresses damping in several quasinormal branches, producing quasi-resonant long-lived oscillations.