The first informative astrophysical calibration of gravitational-wave detectors is reported using GW240925 and GW250207.
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Prospects for Observing and Localizing Gravitational-Wave Transients with Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo and KAGRA
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abstract
We present our current best estimate of the plausible observing scenarios for the Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo and KAGRA gravitational-wave detectors over the next several years, with the intention of providing information to facilitate planning for multi-messenger astronomy with gravitational waves. We estimate the sensitivity of the network to transient gravitational-wave signals for the third (O3), fourth (O4) and fifth observing (O5) runs, including the planned upgrades of the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. We study the capability of the network to determine the sky location of the source for gravitational-wave signals from the inspiral of binary systems of compact objects, that is BNS, NSBH, and BBH systems. The ability to localize the sources is given as a sky-area probability, luminosity distance, and comoving volume. The median sky localization area (90\% credible region) is expected to be a few hundreds of square degrees for all types of binary systems during O3 with the Advanced LIGO and Virgo (HLV) network. The median sky localization area will improve to a few tens of square degrees during O4 with the Advanced LIGO, Virgo, and KAGRA (HLVK) network. We evaluate sensitivity and localization expectations for unmodeled signal searches, including the search for intermediate mass black hole binary mergers.
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representative citing papers
O(G^4) gravitational wave scattering amplitude computed in worldline QFT with Murua decomposition, matched to black hole perturbation theory to validate the formalism for Schwarzschild black holes.
Numerical simulations of equal-mass boson-star mergers reveal larger waveform deviations from black-hole binaries in late inspiral and merger, plus odd multipole excitations for certain scalar-field phases, with some signals degenerate until IMR consistency tests are applied.
The gwNRHME framework constructs a multi-modal non-spinning eccentric gravitational waveform surrogate by modulating quasi-circular models with universal eccentric functions, achieving median mismatches of ~9e-5 against 156 NR waveforms.
Ratio-Filter Dechirping converts gravitational-wave matched filtering from a memory-bound FFT into a cache-efficient FIR convolution, delivering a measured 8x speedup in the core loop.
A new harmonic-decomposition template search for precessing binary black holes in LIGO O3 data improves sensitivity by up to 28% and reduces computational cost by up to 5x with no new detections.
Bubble collisions in a seesaw model produce right-handed neutrinos that source novel gravitational waves detectable by LISA, ET, and LVK while allowing the lightest RHN to explain dark matter or enable leptogenesis.
A unified framework for the perturbed Kepler problem derives modified eccentric orbits and gravitational wave imprints from a general perturbed potential, offering a source-specific alternative to post-Newtonian expansions.
LIGO and Virgo detected 39 compact binary coalescence events in O3a, including 13 new ones, with black hole binaries up to 150 solar masses and the first significantly asymmetric mass ratios.
Detection of GW190814 from the coalescence of a 23 solar-mass black hole and a 2.6 solar-mass compact object, the most unequal-mass binary yet observed with gravitational waves.
Defines peak-integrated sensitivity curves (PISCs) that fold in the expected spectral shape of gravitational waves from cosmological phase transitions and supplies semianalytical fits plus public data for major detectors.
Mass ratio reversals produce qualitatively different contributions to BBH merger rates and masses in COMPAS versus SEVN simulations, with core-growth dominating and most systems arising from massive low-metallicity progenitors.
Bayesian analysis finds individual QNM frequencies near avoided crossings hard to resolve even under optimistic conditions, though collective AC waveform signatures may remain detectable if those modes dominate and slower-mode contamination is minimal.
The NLO gravitational spin-orbit Hamiltonian for N spinning bodies is computed via PN-EFT, with only three-body diagrams new beyond the binary case, and the result matches the known ADM Hamiltonian up to canonical transformation.
Two new surrogate models, trained on NR simulations, predict remnant properties and eccentricity dynamics for nonspinning eccentric black hole binaries with q ≤ 4 and e < 0.23.
Normalizing flows replace binned histograms for estimating multi-detector signal parameters in PyCBC, slashing storage by three orders of magnitude with under 0.05% sensitivity loss and up to 6.55% gains in specific cases.
Neural network surrogate approximates precessing compact binary gravitational waveforms up to 1000x faster than the base EOB model with validated accuracy.
pyEFPEHM extends prior PN models to include higher-order quasi-circular phasing, generalized precession solutions, and eccentric corrections up to 1PN in selected multipoles for eccentric precessing binaries with matter effects.
Simulations show a 40-50 solar-mass black-hole cutoff is not guaranteed to be confidently recovered from GWTC-4-like catalogs, spurious detections are unlikely, and O4 data would reduce cutoff-mass uncertainty by at least 20 percent while yielding only a lower bound on the carbon-alpha reaction rate
Semi-analytic waveform model for scalar environments around black hole binaries is validated against numerical relativity and applied to LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA data to obtain upper limits on scalar densities with tentative evidence in GW190728.
GW250114 data confirm the remnant is consistent with a Kerr black hole and bound the dominant quadrupolar mode frequency to within a few percent of the GR prediction, with constraints tighter than prior multi-event catalogs.
GW231123's masses and high spins are consistent with primordial black holes that accreted mass and angular momentum in the early universe within the standard PBH framework.
The LIGO and Virgo collaborations have released the gravitational-wave strain time series data from O1 and O2 observing runs, sampled at 16384 Hz, together with data-quality information through the Gravitational Wave Open Science Center.
New surrogate models NRSur7dq4 and RemnantModel accurately predict waveforms and remnant properties for precessing unequal-mass binary black holes up to q=4, outperforming existing models by an order of magnitude.
citing papers explorer
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GW240925 and GW250207: Astrophysical Calibration of Gravitational-wave Detectors
The first informative astrophysical calibration of gravitational-wave detectors is reported using GW240925 and GW250207.
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Gravitational wave scattering at $\mathcal{O}(G^4)$: Murua construction and elliptics
O(G^4) gravitational wave scattering amplitude computed in worldline QFT with Murua decomposition, matched to black hole perturbation theory to validate the formalism for Schwarzschild black holes.
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Lessons from binary dynamics of inspiralling equal-mass boson-star mergers
Numerical simulations of equal-mass boson-star mergers reveal larger waveform deviations from black-hole binaries in late inspiral and merger, plus odd multipole excitations for certain scalar-field phases, with some signals degenerate until IMR consistency tests are applied.
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Including higher-order modes in a quadrupolar eccentric numerical relativity surrogate using universal eccentric modulation functions
The gwNRHME framework constructs a multi-modal non-spinning eccentric gravitational waveform surrogate by modulating quasi-circular models with universal eccentric functions, achieving median mismatches of ~9e-5 against 156 NR waveforms.
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Beyond FINDCHIRP: Breaking the memory wall and optimal FFTs for Gravitational-Wave Matched-Filter Searches with Ratio-Filter Dechirping
Ratio-Filter Dechirping converts gravitational-wave matched filtering from a memory-bound FFT into a cache-efficient FIR convolution, delivering a measured 8x speedup in the core loop.
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Search for Precessing Binary Black Holes in Advanced LIGO's Third Observing Run using Harmonic Decomposition
A new harmonic-decomposition template search for precessing binary black holes in LIGO O3 data improves sensitivity by up to 28% and reduces computational cost by up to 5x with no new detections.
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Cosmic Collider Gravitational Waves sourced by Right-handed Neutrino production from Bubbles: Testing Seesaw, Leptogenesis and Dark Matter
Bubble collisions in a seesaw model produce right-handed neutrinos that source novel gravitational waves detectable by LISA, ET, and LVK while allowing the lightest RHN to explain dark matter or enable leptogenesis.
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Generalized Perturbed Kepler Problem: Gravitational Wave Imprints from Eccentric Compact Binaries
A unified framework for the perturbed Kepler problem derives modified eccentric orbits and gravitational wave imprints from a general perturbed potential, offering a source-specific alternative to post-Newtonian expansions.
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GWTC-2: Compact Binary Coalescences Observed by LIGO and Virgo During the First Half of the Third Observing Run
LIGO and Virgo detected 39 compact binary coalescence events in O3a, including 13 new ones, with black hole binaries up to 150 solar masses and the first significantly asymmetric mass ratios.
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GW190814: Gravitational Waves from the Coalescence of a 23 M$_\odot$ Black Hole with a 2.6 M$_\odot$ Compact Object
Detection of GW190814 from the coalescence of a 23 solar-mass black hole and a 2.6 solar-mass compact object, the most unequal-mass binary yet observed with gravitational waves.
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New Sensitivity Curves for Gravitational-Wave Signals from Cosmological Phase Transitions
Defines peak-integrated sensitivity curves (PISCs) that fold in the expected spectral shape of gravitational waves from cosmological phase transitions and supplies semianalytical fits plus public data for major detectors.
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Massquerade: Impacts of Mass Ratio Reversals on Binary Black Hole Merger Rates and Mass Distributions
Mass ratio reversals produce qualitatively different contributions to BBH merger rates and masses in COMPAS versus SEVN simulations, with core-growth dominating and most systems arising from massive low-metallicity progenitors.
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Detectability of avoided crossings in black hole ringdowns
Bayesian analysis finds individual QNM frequencies near avoided crossings hard to resolve even under optimistic conditions, though collective AC waveform signatures may remain detectable if those modes dominate and slower-mode contamination is minimal.
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N-body next-to-leading order gravitational spin-orbit interaction via effective field theory
The NLO gravitational spin-orbit Hamiltonian for N spinning bodies is computed via PN-EFT, with only three-body diagrams new beyond the binary case, and the result matches the known ADM Hamiltonian up to canonical transformation.
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Merger remnant and eccentricity dynamics surrogates for eccentric nonspinning black hole binaries
Two new surrogate models, trained on NR simulations, predict remnant properties and eccentricity dynamics for nonspinning eccentric black hole binaries with q ≤ 4 and e < 0.23.
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Normalizing flows for density estimation in multi-detector gravitational-wave searches
Normalizing flows replace binned histograms for estimating multi-detector signal parameters in PyCBC, slashing storage by three orders of magnitude with under 0.05% sensitivity loss and up to 6.55% gains in specific cases.
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Fast neural network surrogate for multimodal effective-one-body gravitational waveforms from generically precessing compact binaries
Neural network surrogate approximates precessing compact binary gravitational waveforms up to 1000x faster than the base EOB model with validated accuracy.
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Post-Newtonian inspiral waveform model for eccentric precessing binaries with higher-order modes and matter effects
pyEFPEHM extends prior PN models to include higher-order quasi-circular phasing, generalized precession solutions, and eccentric corrections up to 1PN in selected multipoles for eccentric precessing binaries with matter effects.
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Measurement prospects for the pair-instability mass cutoff with gravitational waves
Simulations show a 40-50 solar-mass black-hole cutoff is not guaranteed to be confidently recovered from GWTC-4-like catalogs, spurious detections are unlikely, and O4 data would reduce cutoff-mass uncertainty by at least 20 percent while yielding only a lower bound on the carbon-alpha reaction rate
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Scalar fields around black hole binaries in LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA
Semi-analytic waveform model for scalar environments around black hole binaries is validated against numerical relativity and applied to LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA data to obtain upper limits on scalar densities with tentative evidence in GW190728.
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Black Hole Spectroscopy and Tests of General Relativity with GW250114
GW250114 data confirm the remnant is consistent with a Kerr black hole and bound the dominant quadrupolar mode frequency to within a few percent of the GR prediction, with constraints tighter than prior multi-event catalogs.
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GW231123: A Possible Primordial Black Hole Origin
GW231123's masses and high spins are consistent with primordial black holes that accreted mass and angular momentum in the early universe within the standard PBH framework.
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Open data from the first and second observing runs of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo
The LIGO and Virgo collaborations have released the gravitational-wave strain time series data from O1 and O2 observing runs, sampled at 16384 Hz, together with data-quality information through the Gravitational Wave Open Science Center.
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Surrogate models for precessing binary black hole simulations with unequal masses
New surrogate models NRSur7dq4 and RemnantModel accurately predict waveforms and remnant properties for precessing unequal-mass binary black holes up to q=4, outperforming existing models by an order of magnitude.
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Tests of General Relativity with the Binary Black Hole Signals from the LIGO-Virgo Catalog GWTC-1
Binary black hole signals in GWTC-1 are consistent with general relativity predictions, with an improved graviton mass bound of mg ≤ 4.7 × 10^{-23} eV/c² at 90% credible level.
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Is the Binary Black Hole Population Inference from Gravitational-Wave Data Robust?
Waveform modeling uncertainties can distort features in the binary black hole mass distribution inferred from gravitational-wave data more than statistical uncertainties.
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Agnostically decoding gravitational wave model deficiencies in GWTC-3
No evidence for a mass-scale dependent model deficiency is found in the highest-SNR GWTC-3 events.
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Emergent structure in the binary black hole mass distribution and implications for population-based cosmology
B-spline agnostic reconstruction of binary black hole masses from GWTC-4.0 reveals multiple features and a logarithmic hierarchy that impacts Hubble constant measurements, with a low-mass subpopulation isolation method to mitigate systematics.
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Quasi-resonances in the vicinity of Einstein-Maxwell-dilaton black hole
Increasing the mass of a perturbing scalar field around Einstein-Maxwell-dilaton black holes strongly suppresses damping in several quasinormal branches, producing quasi-resonant long-lived oscillations.
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Gravitational-wave parameter estimation to the Moon and back: massive binaries and the case of GW231123
LGWA could observe more than one third of known binary black hole events, detect ~90 mergers per year, and measure chirp mass better than third-generation detectors for massive systems.
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Neural Post-Einsteinian Test of General Relativity with the Third Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog
Neural post-Einsteinian analysis of GWTC-3 finds no GR violation and sets constraints covering both post-Newtonian and beyond-post-Newtonian deviations in a single theory-agnostic setup.
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Disentangling spinning and nonspinning binary black hole populations with spin sorting
Spin sorting with the default spin model distinguishes spinning and nonspinning binary black hole populations in simulations and shows real data rule out a fully nonspinning population but allow mixed ones with up to 80% nonspinning sources.
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Binary black holes in the heat of merger
Develops a frequency-domain approximant for tidal heating in nonspinning black hole binaries that extends to merger and includes horizon parameters.
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Tests of General Relativity with GW230529: a neutron star merging with a lower mass-gap compact object
Parameterized inspiral tests on GW230529 find consistency with GR, with |δφ̂_{-2}| ≲ 8×10^{-5} and ℓ_GB ≲ 0.51 M_⊙ in ESGB theories.
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Probing globular clusters parameters through gravitational wave lensing with stellar-mass black hole binaries
Simulations of wave-optics lensing of GW150914-like signals by globular clusters recover injected velocity dispersion values for favorable alignments when lens and source parameters are jointly estimated.
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Gravitational Wave Hyperbolic Catalog: Reanalyzing High-Mass Gravitational Wave Signals Using Hyperbolic Waveforms
Reanalysis finds GW190521 prefers hyperbolic waveforms over quasi-circular precessing ones with ln Bayes factor 3.71, while other high-mass events and GW231123 favor the latter; mock signals indicate distinguishability challenges for high-mass precessing cases.
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Mitigating Systematic Errors in Parameter Estimation of Binary Black Hole Mergers in O1-O3 LIGO-Virgo Data
Reanalysis of flagged LVK events with waveform uncertainty models produces consistent spin and precession inferences across raw/deglitched data and multiple waveform approximants.
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Investigating the effect of sensitivity of KAGRA on sky localization of gravitational-wave sources from compact binary coalescences
KAGRA enhances sky localization of binary neutron star mergers in the LVK network via added baselines, with measurable gains at current sensitivity and larger improvements as range reaches ~30 Mpc.
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Not too close! Evaluating the impact of the baseline on the localization of binary black holes by next-generation gravitational-wave detectors
Baselines of 8-11 ms light travel time for two CE detectors provide a reasonable compromise for BBH sky localization, with third detectors eliminating multimodality for most or all events.
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Telling tails and quasi-resonances in the vicinity of Dymnikova regular black hole
Massive scalar perturbations on the Dymnikova regular black hole exhibit growing oscillation frequencies, reduced damping rates leading to quasi-resonances, power-law oscillatory tails, and mass-dependent suppression of grey-body factors.
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False Alarm Rates in Detecting Gravitational Wave Lensing from Astrophysical Coincidences: Insights with Model-Independent Technique GLANCE
Simulations of unlensed binary black hole mergers show that ~0.01% of event pairs are falsely classified as lensed by GLANCE at SNR threshold 1.5 with time delays of ~1000 days or more.
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An Implementation to Identify the Properties of Multiple Population of Gravitational Wave Sources
GWKokab is a new modular JAX framework that uses normalizing flow samplers for efficient inference on subpopulations of compact binary mergers.
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GWTC-2.1: Deep Extended Catalog of Compact Binary Coalescences Observed by LIGO and Virgo During the First Half of the Third Observing Run
GWTC-2.1 adds eight new high-significance compact binary coalescence events to the prior catalog, extending the observed black hole mass range and including candidates inside the pair-instability mass gap.
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Bayesian inference for compact binary coalescences with BILBY: Validation and application to the first LIGO--Virgo gravitational-wave transient catalogue
BILBY is validated on simulated compact binary signals and reproduces the eleven GWTC-1 results with configuration and output files provided for reproduction.
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Science Case for the Einstein Telescope
The Einstein Telescope will enable gravitational-wave observations up to cosmological distances, opening avenues for discoveries in astrophysics, cosmology, and fundamental physics.
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Inferring the properties of a population of compact binaries in presence of selection effects
Pedagogical derivation from first principles of hierarchical Bayesian inference for population properties of compact binaries in the presence of selection effects, with two worked examples.
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The Transient program of the Cherenkov Telescope Array
The paper describes the CTA Transient program's strategy for follow-up observations of multi-messenger alerts including GRBs, GWs, and high-energy neutrinos across 20 GeV to 300 TeV.
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Phase transitions in neutron stars and their links to gravitational waves
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The Early Career Workshop of GR-Amaldi 2025
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