Direct imaging reveals enhanced metallicity and aligned orbit in 29 Cyg b, supporting protoplanetary disk formation near the deuterium burning limit.
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Importance Nested Sampling and the MultiNest Algorithm
Mixed citation behavior. Most common role is background (62%).
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abstract
Bayesian inference involves two main computational challenges. First, in estimating the parameters of some model for the data, the posterior distribution may well be highly multi-modal: a regime in which the convergence to stationarity of traditional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques becomes incredibly slow. Second, in selecting between a set of competing models the necessary estimation of the Bayesian evidence for each is, by definition, a (possibly high-dimensional) integration over the entire parameter space; again this can be a daunting computational task, although new Monte Carlo (MC) integration algorithms offer solutions of ever increasing efficiency. Nested sampling (NS) is one such contemporary MC strategy targeted at calculation of the Bayesian evidence, but which also enables posterior inference as a by-product, thereby allowing simultaneous parameter estimation and model selection. The widely-used MultiNest algorithm presents a particularly efficient implementation of the NS technique for multi-modal posteriors. In this paper we discuss importance nested sampling (INS), an alternative summation of the MultiNest draws, which can calculate the Bayesian evidence at up to an order of magnitude higher accuracy than `vanilla' NS with no change in the way MultiNest explores the parameter space. This is accomplished by treating as a (pseudo-)importance sample the totality of points collected by MultiNest, including those previously discarded under the constrained likelihood sampling of the NS algorithm. We apply this technique to several challenging test problems and compare the accuracy of Bayesian evidences obtained with INS against those from vanilla NS.
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representative citing papers
Panchromatic JWST spectrum of WASP-121 b detects SiO and measures refractory-to-volatile ratios 3x stellar, consistent with mixed solid-gas accretion or migration with continued solid accretion.
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GJ 1132 b is estimated to have received at least 50 times the cumulative XUV flux of modern Earth with over 95% probability across models, supporting its classification as an atmosphere-free world.
DESI DR2 identifies 50,088 galaxies with moderate and 27,420 with strong evidence for down-the-barrel NaI D absorption revealing inflows at ~20 km/s and multiple accretion pathways at z < 0.6.
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citing papers explorer
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Direct Images of CO2 Absorption in the Atmosphere of a Super-Jupiter: Enhanced Metallicity Suggestive of Formation in a Disk
Direct imaging reveals enhanced metallicity and aligned orbit in 29 Cyg b, supporting protoplanetary disk formation near the deuterium burning limit.
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The panchromatic JWST dayside spectrum of WASP-121 b reveals a refractory-rich formation
Panchromatic JWST spectrum of WASP-121 b detects SiO and measures refractory-to-volatile ratios 3x stellar, consistent with mixed solid-gas accretion or migration with continued solid accretion.
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The Rapid ASKAP Continuum Survey VII: Spectra and Polarisation In Cutouts of Extragalactic Sources (SPICE-RACS) Second Data Release -- Unveiling the Magnetised Sky
SPICE-RACS DR2 delivers the largest single Faraday rotation measure catalog from a radio survey, with 250,000-340,000 RMs across most of the sky at median uncertainty of 2 rad m^{-2}.
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Rapid and robust simulation-based inference for kilonovae
A simulation-based inference method with Gaussian process emulators trained on 1300 kilonova simulations recovers parameters accurately and rapidly while avoiding MCMC biases from likelihood misspecification.
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The Range of Cumulative XUV Flux on GJ 1132 b
GJ 1132 b is estimated to have received at least 50 times the cumulative XUV flux of modern Earth with over 95% probability across models, supporting its classification as an atmosphere-free world.
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Peering down the barrel with DESI DR2: 10 000+ inflows at $z$ < 0.6 reveal how galaxies accrete cold gas
DESI DR2 identifies 50,088 galaxies with moderate and 27,420 with strong evidence for down-the-barrel NaI D absorption revealing inflows at ~20 km/s and multiple accretion pathways at z < 0.6.
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Analytical and Machine Learning Methods for Model Discernment at CE$\nu$NS Experiments
Shape correlations in CEνNS allow likelihood and CNN analyses to discriminate sterile neutrinos from NSI and approximately localize sterile parameters in favorable regions.
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dynesty: A Dynamic Nested Sampling Package for Estimating Bayesian Posteriors and Evidences
dynesty is an open-source Python package for dynamic nested sampling that improves efficiency in Bayesian posterior and evidence estimation compared to MCMC on certain problems.
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Inferring the star-formation histories of massive quiescent galaxies with BAGPIPES: Evidence for multiple quenching mechanisms
BAGPIPES fitting of 9289 massive quiescent galaxies shows most SFHs rise gradually then quench in 1-2 Gyr, with faster quenching at z>1 and slower at z<1, interpreted as multiple AGN feedback and gas-supply mechanisms.
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Observing a 542-day transiting giant with large TTVs: The 2025 transit of HIP 41378 f and new constraints on the outer system
New 2025 transit timing for HIP 41378 f confirms large TTVs and is combined with prior data on planets d and e in an N-body model to update ephemerides and predict future transits.
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Validation of the Hybrid Bias Expansion model for the galaxy bispectrum
First systematic validation shows Hybrid Bias Expansion model for galaxy bispectrum remains accurate up to k=0.25 h/Mpc in DESI-like mocks, outperforming tree-level EFT.
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Spatially Resolved Nebular-Stellar Reddening with JWST/NIRISS
JWST observations of high-redshift galaxies show no evolution in dust geometry to z~2.4 and yield an empirical calibration linking resolved differential reddening to SFR surface density.
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The Majoron Cosmological Window: Dark Matter and Thermal Leptogenesis
The minimal majoron framework permits simultaneous majoron dark matter and thermal leptogenesis in a constrained cosmological window set by freeze-in production, warm dark matter bounds, and indirect detection limits.
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Pulse profile modelling of the 2024 outburst of the accreting millisecond pulsar SRGA J144459.2-604207
Joint NICER+IXPE pulse-profile modeling of SRGA J144459.2-604207 favors large neutron-star mass and radius with two independent hotspots but shows strong sensitivity to joint-analysis methodology.
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Morphological and Star Formation Properties of Cosmic Noon Massive Quiescent Galaxies
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Sample continuation in Bayesian hierarchical model via variational inference
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Constraints on Primordial Black Holes from Galactic Diffuse Synchrotron Emissions
Galactic synchrotron emissions above 20 MHz can set tighter upper limits on the abundance of primordial black holes with masses above 10^16 grams than previous cosmic-ray electron data.
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Symbolic Emulators for Cosmology: Accelerating Cosmological Analyses Without Sacrificing Precision
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Tests of General Relativity with Binary Black Holes from the second LIGO-Virgo Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog
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CMB constraints on ultra-light primordial black holes with extended mass distributions
For ultra-light PBHs with extended mass distributions, new CMB-derived 95% exclusion bounds on f_PBH are obtained by jointly varying ΛCDM parameters, yielding f_PBH < 1.6 × 10^{-5} for a uniform distribution between 10^{15} and 10^{17} g.
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Bilby: A user-friendly Bayesian inference library for gravitational-wave astronomy
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AGN radiative feedback as the main regulator of [O III] outflow activity and obscuration in X-ray AGN
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The Landscape of Composite Higgs Models
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Constraining Orbital Eccentricity of a Supermassive Black Hole Binary Candidate PKS 2131-0211
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KiDS+VIKING-450 cosmology with Bayesian hierarchical model redshift distributions
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New $H(z)$ measurement at Redshift = 0.12 with DESI Data Release 1
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The GAPS Programme at TNG LXXIV. A reanalysis of the planetary systems TOI-1272 and TOI-1694 with HARPS-N and retraction of the planetary interpretation of TOI-1272 c
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Faraday Complexity and Depolarisation in a High-Rotation-Measure Radio Galaxy from the Spectra and Polarisation In Cutouts of Extragalactic Sources (SPICE-RACS) DR2
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Interpreting Light Scalar Excesses and Heavy Scalar Cascades in the $\mu$-Term Extended NMSSM
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Tests of General Relativity with GWTC-3
No evidence for physics beyond general relativity is found in the analysis of 15 GW events from GWTC-3, with consistency in residuals, PN parameters, and remnant properties.
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Bayesian inference for compact binary coalescences with BILBY: Validation and application to the first LIGO--Virgo gravitational-wave transient catalogue
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- High-dimensional inference for the $\gamma$-ray sky with differentiable programming