GI BAO provides a robust consistency check for density BAO and shear data, with the first photometric measurement on DES Y3 showing agreement at α = 0.966 ± 0.252.
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The CosmoVerse White Paper: Addressing observational tensions in cosmology with systematics and fundamental physics
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abstract
The standard model of cosmology has provided a good phenomenological description of a wide range of observations both at astrophysical and cosmological scales for several decades. This concordance model is constructed by a universal cosmological constant and supported by a matter sector described by the standard model of particle physics and a cold dark matter contribution, as well as very early-time inflationary physics, and underpinned by gravitation through general relativity. There have always been open questions about the soundness of the foundations of the standard model. However, recent years have shown that there may also be questions from the observational sector with the emergence of differences between certain cosmological probes. In this White Paper, we identify the key objectives that need to be addressed over the coming decade together with the core science projects that aim to meet these challenges. These discordances primarily rest on the divergence in the measurement of core cosmological parameters with varying levels of statistical confidence. These possible statistical tensions may be partially accounted for by systematics in various measurements or cosmological probes but there is also a growing indication of potential new physics beyond the standard model. After reviewing the principal probes used in the measurement of cosmological parameters, as well as potential systematics, we discuss the most promising array of potential new physics that may be observable in upcoming surveys. We also discuss the growing set of novel data analysis approaches that go beyond traditional methods to test physical models. [Abridged]
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representative citing papers
Galaxy pairwise peculiar velocities from Cosmicflows-4 yield M_ν = 0.24^{+0.34}_{-0.18} eV and η² = 2.14^{+0.30}_{-0.32} (7σ non-zero asymmetry) in the CMB framework, consistent with prior Planck results.
Multi-scalar-tensor gravity admits an exact covariant thermodynamic interpretation as an imperfect fluid whose heat flux involves a coupling-derived factor χ and a residual gradient sector, yielding multi-field thermal diagnostics and a GR-attractor criterion that is stricter than simple freezing of
Non-polynomial quasi-topological gravity models reproduce the standard thermal history, generate dynamical dark energy of geometric origin, and fit supernova, cosmic chronometer, and BAO data competitively with ΛCDM.
Rotating black holes with primary scalar hair in beyond Horndeski gravity produce shadows whose diameter increases for negative Q and whose distortion increases for positive Q, with EHT bounds on M87* restricting but not ruling out the (a, Q) parameter space.
Galileon models must obey a void-depth limit tied to expansion history to avoid force breakdowns, excluding ~60% of a linear parameterization's space by z less than or equal to 10.
New exact charged black hole solutions in (2+1)D f(Q) gravity with cubic form yield a novel AdS solution without GR counterpart, with multiple horizons, stable thermodynamics, and stable photon orbits.
Model-independent reconstruction shows that early-universe modifications resolving the Hubble tension exist at the background level, requiring a smooth ~15% pre-recombination expansion rate enhancement.
Two-field axion-like early dark energy reduces Hubble tension to 1.5 sigma residual and improves high-ell CMB fits over single-field models.
A new null test is proposed to isolate cosmologies with non-FLRW observational relations by characterizing how they violate curvature-consistency tests of the standard FLRW framework.
Scalar and tensor perturbations in Jordan-frame scalar-tensor gravity admit an exact linear-order Eckart effective-fluid description, with gravitational-wave damping governed by the scalar sector's transverse-traceless anisotropic stress.
Sign-switching dark energy with a transition at z_† fits recent DESI DR2, Planck CMB, and Pantheon+ data better than ΛCDM while raising the inferred Hubble constant and easing the Hubble tension.
KiDS-Legacy weak lensing plus CMB data yields a 3 sigma deviation in light deflection from GR in a Lambda CDM background, with the signal driven by large-scale CMB lensing amplitudes.
Relativistic N-body simulations of Lambda_s CDM produce a redshift-dependent crest in the matter power spectrum ratio, peaking at 20-25% near the transition and leaving a 15-20% uplift at z=0 on group scales.
Generalizing the host galaxy dispersion measure distribution in FRB cosmology with 125 events produces Hubble constant estimates consistent with Planck 2018 and SH0ES while strongly favoring these models over narrow-prior alternatives on feedback strength.
A scale-invariant model uses a diluting-matter-dependent potential to connect early and late dark energy via tunneling, alleviating the Hubble tension with best-fit early dark energy fraction ~0.3 at z~5000.
Derives a new class of stable models with two massless scalars and one massless spin-2 particle from a rank-2 tensor theory by imposing linearized transverse diffeomorphism invariance and massless spin-2 propagation, using a gauge-invariant Bardeen variable approach.
Phenomenological extension of the PNJL model introduces a curvature-sensitive term proportional to (H/H0)^d that behaves as effective dark energy at late times and fits low-redshift data competitively with ΛCDM.
Modified gravity below O(10) Mpc in a CPL dynamical dark energy background is required to suppress structure growth at low redshifts while satisfying CMB constraints from ISW and lensing.
A sign-switching dark energy model (Λ_s CDM) recovers positive effective neutrino masses (0.055 ± 0.050 eV) consistent with oscillation data, unlike ΛCDM which prefers negative values (-0.075 eV), for DESI DR2 + CMB + supernova fits with z_† > 2.4.
A Hubble-scale domain wall quintessence model produces anisotropic expansion but is tightly constrained by Planck CMB quadrupole limits and supernova data to a negligible contribution, favoring standard LambdaCDM.
BayeSN analysis of ZTF Type Ia supernovae confirms a ~0.1 mag intrinsic environmental step in standardized brightness that is not explained by differences in dust extinction properties.
A non-canonical generalized Brans-Dicke theory admits background cosmological solutions matching Lambda CDM characteristics for constant, power-law, and exponential potentials, with dynamics distinct from other scalar-tensor models.
Multi-fractional Schwarzschild black holes have profile-insensitive Noether mass and geometric area-law entropy, but require an extended first law with work terms for the q-profile parameters to restore integrability of the Clausius relation.
citing papers explorer
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GI BAO as a cosmological consistency check
GI BAO provides a robust consistency check for density BAO and shear data, with the first photometric measurement on DES Y3 showing agreement at α = 0.966 ± 0.252.
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Measuring neutrino mass and asymmetry through galaxy pairwise peculiar velocity
Galaxy pairwise peculiar velocities from Cosmicflows-4 yield M_ν = 0.24^{+0.34}_{-0.18} eV and η² = 2.14^{+0.30}_{-0.32} (7σ non-zero asymmetry) in the CMB framework, consistent with prior Planck results.
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First-order thermodynamics of multi-scalar-tensor gravity
Multi-scalar-tensor gravity admits an exact covariant thermodynamic interpretation as an imperfect fluid whose heat flux involves a coupling-derived factor χ and a residual gradient sector, yielding multi-field thermal diagnostics and a GR-attractor criterion that is stricter than simple freezing of
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Cosmologically viable non-polynomial quasi-topological gravity: explicit models, $\Lambda$CDM limit and observational constraints
Non-polynomial quasi-topological gravity models reproduce the standard thermal history, generate dynamical dark energy of geometric origin, and fit supernova, cosmic chronometer, and BAO data competitively with ΛCDM.
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Geometric Constraints on the Pre-Recombination Expansion History from the Hubble Tension
Model-independent reconstruction shows that early-universe modifications resolving the Hubble tension exist at the background level, requiring a smooth ~15% pre-recombination expansion rate enhancement.
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Double the axions, half the tension: multi-field early dark energy eases the Hubble tension
Two-field axion-like early dark energy reduces Hubble tension to 1.5 sigma residual and improves high-ell CMB fits over single-field models.
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Observational Tests for Distinguishing Classes of Cosmological Models
A new null test is proposed to isolate cosmologies with non-FLRW observational relations by characterizing how they violate curvature-consistency tests of the standard FLRW framework.
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Sign-Switching Dark Energy: Smooth Transitions with Recent DESI DR2 Observations
Sign-switching dark energy with a transition at z_† fits recent DESI DR2, Planck CMB, and Pantheon+ data better than ΛCDM while raising the inferred Hubble constant and easing the Hubble tension.
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Evidence for deviation in gravitational light deflection from general relativity at cosmological scales with KiDS-Legacy and CMB lensing
KiDS-Legacy weak lensing plus CMB data yields a 3 sigma deviation in light deflection from GR in a Lambda CDM background, with the signal driven by large-scale CMB lensing amplitudes.
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Nonlinear Matter Power Spectrum from relativistic $N$-body Simulations: $\Lambda_{\rm s}$CDM versus $\Lambda$CDM
Relativistic N-body simulations of Lambda_s CDM produce a redshift-dependent crest in the matter power spectrum ratio, peaking at 20-25% near the transition and leaving a 15-20% uplift at z=0 on group scales.
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Generalized Distributions of Host Dispersion Measures in the Fast Radio Burst Cosmology
Generalizing the host galaxy dispersion measure distribution in FRB cosmology with 125 events produces Hubble constant estimates consistent with Planck 2018 and SH0ES while strongly favoring these models over narrow-prior alternatives on feedback strength.
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Negative neutrino mass or negative dark energy?
A sign-switching dark energy model (Λ_s CDM) recovers positive effective neutrino masses (0.055 ± 0.050 eV) consistent with oscillation data, unlike ΛCDM which prefers negative values (-0.075 eV), for DESI DR2 + CMB + supernova fits with z_† > 2.4.
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Cosmological Dynamics of a Non-Canonical Generalised Brans-Dicke Theory
A non-canonical generalized Brans-Dicke theory admits background cosmological solutions matching Lambda CDM characteristics for constant, power-law, and exponential potentials, with dynamics distinct from other scalar-tensor models.
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Noether charges and the first law of thermodynamics for multifractional Schwarzschild black hole in the q-derivative theory
Multi-fractional Schwarzschild black holes have profile-insensitive Noether mass and geometric area-law entropy, but require an extended first law with work terms for the q-profile parameters to restore integrability of the Clausius relation.
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Alleviating the Hubble Tension Using $\Lambda$sCDM Model: A Coupled Dark Energy - Dark Matter Interaction
The ΛsCDM model with coupled dark sectors reduces the Hubble tension to 1.2σ via late-time expansion changes while keeping the early-universe sound horizon nearly unchanged.
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Cosmological intercept tension
Tensions in the supernova intercept a_B at z~0.01 in PantheonPlus and z~0.1 in DES-Y5 point to data systematics or inter-survey inconsistencies rather than new physics, aligning H0 measurements and reducing support for dynamical dark energy.
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The End of the First Act: Spectral Running, Interacting Dark Radiation, and the Hubble Tension in Light of ACT DR6 Data
Including spectral running α_s, β_s and self-interacting dark radiation relaxes the ACT DR6 bound on ΔN_eff to <0.58 and lowers the Hubble tension to 2.2σ with three extra parameters.
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Generalizing the CPL Parametrization through Dark Sector Interaction
Generalized interacting dark energy models with constant or dynamical couplings yield analytical density expressions but are not preferred over LambdaCDM by Bayesian evidence from DESI, Pantheon+, and CMB data.
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Cosmological Impact of Redshift-Dependent Type Ia Supernovae Calibration
A phenomenological redshift-dependent SNIa magnitude correction shows no evidence in ΛCDM but is preferred at 4.3σ with dynamical dark energy, reducing Hubble tension to 1.5σ.
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Do equation of state parametrizations of dark energy faithfully capture the dynamics of the late universe?
Node-based reconstruction of cosmic expansion prefers stronger deceleration at z≈1.7 than smooth DE EoS parametrizations, isolating z~1.5-2 as a window where the latter may compress localized kinematic features permitted by current data.
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Is the $w_0w_a$CDM cosmological parameterization evidence for dark energy dynamics partially caused by the excess smoothing of Planck PR4 CMB anisotropy data?
Planck PR4 CMB data mildly favors dynamical dark energy, but this preference weakens when accounting for possible excess smoothing, indicating the signal may partly arise from data processing issues.
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Measuring neutrino mass in light of ACT DR6 and DESI DR2
New ACT and DESI data yield model-dependent upper limits on sum of neutrino masses, with holographic dark energy giving the tightest bounds and a consistent preference for degenerate hierarchy.
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Probing Dynamical Dark Energy with Late-Time Data: Evidence, Tensions, and the Limits of the $w_0w_a$CDM Framework
Evidence for dynamical dark energy in the w0waCDM framework is strongly dataset-dependent, driven by mismatches in low-redshift BAO distance ratios that produce divergent expansion histories and inconsistent Hubble tension relief.
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New constraints on cosmic anisotropy from galaxy clusters using an improved dipole fitting method
Galaxy cluster observations yield two preferred directions with cosmic anisotropy amplitude of about 5.3 times 10 to the minus 4 at roughly 1 sigma overall significance, though higher in the XMM-Newton subsample.
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Revisiting the Matter Creation Process: Observational Constraints on Gravitationally Induced Dark Energy and the Hubble Tension
Gravitationally induced particle creation models fit cosmological data as well as ΛCDM and reduce the Hubble tension from 4.3σ to 2.4–3σ.
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Cosmological constraints on the big bang quantum cosmology model
The JCDM model yields H0 of 66.95 plus or minus 0.51 km/s/Mpc and Omega_m of 0.3419 plus or minus 0.0065 in a flat universe, rising to H0 of 69.13 plus or minus 0.56 with slight positive curvature, fitting late-time data but struggling with full early-universe consistency.
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Revisiting the Hubble tension problem in the framework of holographic dark energy
HDE models with future event horizon IR cutoff partially ease the Hubble tension while Hubble-scale cutoffs do not, consistent across six models and multiple BAO/SN/CMB combinations.
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Machine Learning for Multi-messenger Probes of New Physics and Cosmology: A Review and Perspective
A review summarizing machine learning methods for multi-messenger probes of dark matter and new physics, with a proposed plan for future integrated analyses.
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The Quintom theory of dark energy after DESI DR2
This review traces the history of dynamical dark energy, presents the no-go theorem against single-field crossing of w = -1, and surveys viable Quintom constructions including multi-field models and modified gravity in light of DESI DR2 hints.