TOI-837 b has a true obliquity of 25.9+7.5-6.3 deg, the first planet younger than 100 Myr with accessible ψ incompatible with an aligned orbit, favoring primordial disc torque followed by disc-driven migration.
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emcee: The MCMC Hammer
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abstract
We introduce a stable, well tested Python implementation of the affine-invariant ensemble sampler for Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) proposed by Goodman & Weare (2010). The code is open source and has already been used in several published projects in the astrophysics literature. The algorithm behind emcee has several advantages over traditional MCMC sampling methods and it has excellent performance as measured by the autocorrelation time (or function calls per independent sample). One major advantage of the algorithm is that it requires hand-tuning of only 1 or 2 parameters compared to $\sim N^2$ for a traditional algorithm in an N-dimensional parameter space. In this document, we describe the algorithm and the details of our implementation and API. Exploiting the parallelism of the ensemble method, emcee permits any user to take advantage of multiple CPU cores without extra effort. The code is available online at http://dan.iel.fm/emcee under the MIT License.
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- abstract We introduce a stable, well tested Python implementation of the affine-invariant ensemble sampler for Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) proposed by Goodman & Weare (2010). The code is open source and has already been used in several published projects in the astrophysics literature. The algorithm behind emcee has several advantages over traditional MCMC sampling methods and it has excellent performance as measured by the autocorrelation time (or function calls per independent sample). One major advantage of the algorithm is that it requires hand-tuning of only 1 or 2 parameters compared to $\sim
- method The resultingP 1D mocks are assigned the same covariance matrix as the one em- ployed in the DESI DR1 analysis. These mocks do not include contaminants or systematics; however, we analyze them with the model presented in the previous section, which accounts for both. We extract cosmological constraints using the publicly available affine-invariant Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) ensemble sampleremcee 7 [118]. At each step,emceeproposes 7https://emcee.readthedocs.io/en/stable/ - 23 - 0.9 1.0 1.1
- method For the BAO sector, we utilize the dataset of [89], which incorporates fiducial cosmology corrections through the ratior d/rfid, allowing for a consistent com- parison between theoretical predictions and observations. The exploration of the parameter space is carried out using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, implemented through the publicly available Python pack- ageemcee[90]. In this context, the SNIa nuisance pa- rameterMis treated as a free parameter of the Pan- theon dataset (see
- method RPG-2019-350, and Royal Society Grant No. RGS-R2-202004. LIGO was con- structed by the California Institute of Technology and Massachusetts Institute of Technology with funding from the National Science Foundation and operates un- der cooperative agreement PHY-0757058. We acknowledge use of iPython [86], Matplotlib [87, 88], NumPy [89], SciPy [90], emcee [91] and SeaBorn [92]. This is LIGO Document P2000231 Glossary and main symbols α(⃗λ ) The fraction of physical sources that are detectable by
- method PLANCK + PP, and (ii) CC + DESBAO + PLANCK + DES, as −2 lnLtot = 𝜒2 tot. (6.8) We estimate the likelihood by implementing the model in Python and use the publicly available affine-invariant Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) ensemble sampler emcee [145] to obtain the posterior distributions of the model parameters. The resulting samples are then analyzed usingGetDist [146] to obtain marginalized 1D and 2D posterior distributions. Finally, we compare the statistical preference of the current model r
- method consistent solutions across cosmic epochs, and adopt uniform priors as listed in Tab. II. For sampling and likelihood eval- uation, we employ the nested samplerPolyChord, which is well suited for high-dimensional parameter spaces compared to affine-invariant MCMC samplers such asemcee[99-101]. The chains are analyzed usingGetDistto extract the best-fit values [102, 103]. Finally, we compare our models against flat ΛCDM using information criteria such as the Akaike Informa- tion Criterion (AIC) a
- method package that provides a common framework for writing DESI likelihoods. The BAO the- ory and likelihood is implemented in JAX [126] 20. Even though gradient-based sampling methods were implemented, we found that with analytic marginalization over broadband parameters that leaves a few sampled parameters, and using Jax just-in-time compilation and parallelization capabilities, the ensemble sampler emcee [127]21 provided well-sampled posterior estimates in a just a few minutes. In addition to MCMC
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representative citing papers
The DM distribution of unlocalized FRBs yields H0 = 73.8 +14.0/-12.3 km/s/Mpc with 18% uncertainty.
A new histogram-free likelihood method applied to simulated JWST observations of brown dwarfs shows that globular cluster ages can be determined with formal errors under 0.2 Gyr.
Correcting NIRISS charge migration reveals KELT-7 b as a metal-enriched (~92x solar) ultra-hot Jupiter with H2O, CO2 and TiO but no H- or clouds, orbiting a young metal-rich star.
Pseudo double-source plane lenses enable statistical strong lensing tomography that forecasts σ(w0) ~ 0.45 from the LSST 10-year photometric sample in flat w0waCDM cosmology.
Native-resolution retrievals on 0.97-5.27 micron JWST spectra of VHS 1256 b find a ~79% cloud deck, solar-like metallicity and C/O, and depleted 18O in a partially cloudy disequilibrium atmosphere.
LRD host galaxies show average metallicity 0.08 Z_sun with narrow stable range, challenging pristine-gas formation models while ruling out typical local AGN.
One acceleration measurement equals ~10^5 phase-space measurements for local dark matter density estimation, with acceleration outperforming Jeans modeling in both equilibrium and perturbed Milky Way simulations.
A hierarchical Bayesian framework that uses the empirical anti-correlation between AGN variability amplitude and luminosity to infer cosmological parameters from moderate-baseline light curves via importance reweighting.
GraphNPE recovers a significantly lower central density for Boötes I consistent with a core while Draco remains marginally cuspy, and demonstrates that higher-order velocity moments reduce bias in dynamical modeling.
Asteroseismic masses average 1.29 Msun for Ba dwarfs versus 1.96 Msun for Ba giants, supporting main-sequence accretion evolution from dwarfs to giants, though models fail to match the observed [hs/ls] ratio.
First narrow-line flux ratios for lensed quasar RXJ1131-1231 measured with JWST/NIRSpec IFS at ~5% precision, detecting cusp anomaly consistent with prior work.
76 N/O-enhanced galaxies at 4<z<8.5 are observed shortly after starbursts, either in the WR enrichment phase within 10 Myr or the AGB phase after 30-40 Myr following outflows.
JWST MIRI observations of 634 galaxies at 0.2<z<2 yield IR luminosity functions with faint-end slope α≈0.147, implying lower dust-obscured SFRD than previous ALMA/Herschel/Spitzer studies.
Direct detection of CO(3-2) at z=7.31 in REBELS-25 gives M_mol ~ 10^11 M_sun with f_gas ~0.95, confirming a massive molecular reservoir and showing low-J CO remains detectable in the Epoch of Reionization.
VLBI at 4.9 GHz plus multi-epoch survey data reveal a fading parsec-scale radio component near the optical center of a dwarf galaxy, interpreted as transient ejecta from IMBH accretion.
DIXE proposes CSS-based survey strategies covering 72.5% of the sky with 26-68 ks exposures and shows via simulation that MCMC collimator demodulation yields 1° point-source localization and 3° extended-source resolution.
A 6D kinematic census identifies 18 anomalous Cepheids with extreme orbits, including one possibly scattered by globular cluster E3, and finds consistency between dynamical and stellar ages.
Simultaneous measurement of low- and high-mass IMF slopes in 214 star-forming galaxies reveals diversity, weak correlation between ends, and links to stellar mass, star formation rate, and metallicity.
Four parameters suffice to describe dust attenuation curve diversity in TNG simulations, yielding a new symbolic-regression model that recovers curves and fluxes better than existing parameterizations while linking parameters to SFR surface density, metallicity, and geometry.
Derives idealized P-L-T relation from hydrostatic envelope model for LRDs and uses sparse data to obtain preliminary H0 = 120.7 with large errors as proof-of-concept.
Introduces MGIC_rv, an information criterion that combines conditional RV likelihood with an effective parameter count for selecting multi-GP models focused on radial velocities.
High-resolution M-band spectroscopy detects super-stellar SiO in TWA 5 B, implying no significant magnesium-silicate clouds and formation consistent with core accretion beyond the CO snowline or gravitational instability with solid enrichment.
Deep interferometric observations of a z≈1.12 barred spiral reveal bar-driven molecular inflows at a rate matching the galaxy's star formation rate of ~36 M⊙/yr.
citing papers explorer
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The 35-Myr old infant planet TOI-837 b has a mildly misaligned orbit
TOI-837 b has a true obliquity of 25.9+7.5-6.3 deg, the first planet younger than 100 Myr with accessible ψ incompatible with an aligned orbit, favoring primordial disc torque followed by disc-driven migration.
-
Dispersion Measure Distribution of Unlocalized Fast Radio Bursts as a Probe of the Hubble Constant
The DM distribution of unlocalized FRBs yields H0 = 73.8 +14.0/-12.3 km/s/Mpc with 18% uncertainty.
-
New Way to Date Globular Clusters: Brown Dwarf Cooling Sequences
A new histogram-free likelihood method applied to simulated JWST observations of brown dwarfs shows that globular cluster ages can be determined with formal errors under 0.2 Gyr.
-
Mitigating Charge Migration in JWST NIRISS Reveals That KELT-7 b is a Metal-enriched Ultra-hot Jupiter Orbiting a Young Metal-rich Star
Correcting NIRISS charge migration reveals KELT-7 b as a metal-enriched (~92x solar) ultra-hot Jupiter with H2O, CO2 and TiO but no H- or clouds, orbiting a young metal-rich star.
-
Strong Lensing Tomography: Double and pseudo multi-source plane strong gravitational lensing to constrain dark energy
Pseudo double-source plane lenses enable statistical strong lensing tomography that forecasts σ(w0) ~ 0.45 from the LSST 10-year photometric sample in flat w0waCDM cosmology.
-
Native-resolution retrievals of VHS 1256-1257 b spanning the JWST/NIRSpec wavelength range: Chemical composition of a partially cloudy atmosphere
Native-resolution retrievals on 0.97-5.27 micron JWST spectra of VHS 1256 b find a ~79% cloud deck, solar-like metallicity and C/O, and depleted 18O in a partially cloudy disequilibrium atmosphere.
-
The metallicities of little red dot host galaxies: LRDs are metal poor, but not pristine
LRD host galaxies show average metallicity 0.08 Z_sun with narrow stable range, challenging pristine-gas formation models while ruling out typical local AGN.
-
An Acceleration is Worth a Hundred Thousand Phase Space Measurements
One acceleration measurement equals ~10^5 phase-space measurements for local dark matter density estimation, with acceleration outperforming Jeans modeling in both equilibrium and perturbed Milky Way simulations.
-
A hierarchical Bayesian framework for cosmology using Type 1 AGN variability
A hierarchical Bayesian framework that uses the empirical anti-correlation between AGN variability amplitude and luminosity to infer cosmological parameters from moderate-baseline light curves via importance reweighting.
-
Dark Matter in Draco and Bo\"otes I: Hints of a Core in an Ultra-Faint Dwarf from Simulation-Based Inference
GraphNPE recovers a significantly lower central density for Boötes I consistent with a core while Draco remains marginally cuspy, and demonstrates that higher-order velocity moments reduce bias in dynamical modeling.
-
Unveiling the nature of barium stars. I. Asteroseismic masses and the evolutionary link between Ba dwarfs and giants
Asteroseismic masses average 1.29 Msun for Ba dwarfs versus 1.96 Msun for Ba giants, supporting main-sequence accretion evolution from dwarfs to giants, though models fail to match the observed [hs/ls] ratio.
-
First measurement of narrow-line flux ratios for a lensed quasar with JWST/NIRSpec IFS
First narrow-line flux ratios for lensed quasar RXJ1131-1231 measured with JWST/NIRSpec IFS at ~5% precision, detecting cusp anomaly consistent with prior work.
-
Diverse Histories and Common Origins of Nitrogen-enhanced JWST Galaxies
76 N/O-enhanced galaxies at 4<z<8.5 are observed shortly after starbursts, either in the WR enrichment phase within 10 Myr or the AGB phase after 30-40 Myr following outflows.
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MEGA and SMILES Find Fewer Dusty Galaxies than Expected at Cosmic Noon
JWST MIRI observations of 634 galaxies at 0.2<z<2 yield IR luminosity functions with faint-end slope α≈0.147, implying lower dust-obscured SFRD than previous ALMA/Herschel/Spitzer studies.
-
Direct detection of cool molecular gas in a star-forming galaxy at $z=7.31$
Direct detection of CO(3-2) at z=7.31 in REBELS-25 gives M_mol ~ 10^11 M_sun with f_gas ~0.95, confirming a massive molecular reservoir and showing low-J CO remains detectable in the Epoch of Reionization.
-
Detection of a parsec-scale, compact, and fading ejecta from an accreting massive black hole
VLBI at 4.9 GHz plus multi-epoch survey data reveal a fading parsec-scale radio component near the optical center of a dwarf galaxy, interpreted as transient ejecta from IMBH accretion.
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DIffuse X-ray Explorer (DIXE): Sky Survey Strategy and Collimator Response Demodulation
DIXE proposes CSS-based survey strategies covering 72.5% of the sky with 26-68 ks exposures and shows via simulation that MCMC collimator demodulation yields 1° point-source localization and 3° extended-source resolution.
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Rogue Ones: Orbital census of Galactic Cepheids and their Anomalies
A 6D kinematic census identifies 18 anomalous Cepheids with extreme orbits, including one possibly scattered by globular cluster E3, and finds consistency between dynamical and stellar ages.
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Hector Galaxy Survey: Linking the low- and high-mass ends of the initial mass function in star-forming galaxies
Simultaneous measurement of low- and high-mass IMF slopes in 214 star-forming galaxies reveals diversity, weak correlation between ends, and links to stellar mass, star formation rate, and metallicity.
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Learning the Universe: The Structure of Dust Attenuation Curves in Galaxy Simulations
Four parameters suffice to describe dust attenuation curve diversity in TNG simulations, yielding a new symbolic-regression model that recovers curves and fluxes better than existing parameterizations while linking parameters to SFR surface density, metallicity, and geometry.
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Little red dots as a cosmological probe: constraining $H_0$ with quasi-periodic pulsations
Derives idealized P-L-T relation from hydrostatic envelope model for LRDs and uses sparse data to obtain preliminary H0 = 120.7 with large errors as proof-of-concept.
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A Model Selection Criterion for Multidimensional Gaussian Processes: Application to Radial Velocities
Introduces MGIC_rv, an information criterion that combines conditional RV likelihood with an effective parameter count for selecting multi-GP models focused on radial velocities.
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The CRIMSON survey I: super-stellar SiO in the directly imaged companion TWA 5 B from high-resolution M-band spectroscopy
High-resolution M-band spectroscopy detects super-stellar SiO in TWA 5 B, implying no significant magnesium-silicate clouds and formation consistent with core accretion beyond the CO snowline or gravitational instability with solid enrichment.
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NOEMA$^\rm{3D}$: A deep view of cold gas flows in a barred spiral galaxy at $z\sim1$
Deep interferometric observations of a z≈1.12 barred spiral reveal bar-driven molecular inflows at a rate matching the galaxy's star formation rate of ~36 M⊙/yr.
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VLTI/PIONIER imaging of post-AGB binaries. An INSPIRING hunt for inner rim substructures in circumbinary discs
High-resolution interferometric imaging of eight post-AGB circumbinary discs reveals diverse inner-rim substructures including azimuthal brightness enhancements and arc-like features not explained by inclination alone.
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Hidden Monsters with SPHEREx I: A goldmine for heavily reddened quasars at cosmic noon
Confirmation of 77 new heavily reddened quasars at 1.5 < z < 3.9 with high luminosities and extinctions, showing they are deficient in hot and warm dust relative to blue quasars and supporting a blow-out feedback phase.
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Precision hyperfine spectroscopy of an individual nuclear-spin-9/2
An Er3+ spin sensor in CaWO4 measures the hyperfine NMR spectrum of a single 93Nb nuclear spin-9/2 with Hertz resolution, determining its site, position, quadrupolar tensor, and two new terms in the spin Hamiltonian.
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Measuring neutrino mass and asymmetry through galaxy pairwise peculiar velocity
Galaxy pairwise peculiar velocities from Cosmicflows-4 yield M_ν = 0.24^{+0.34}_{-0.18} eV and η² = 2.14^{+0.30}_{-0.32} (7σ non-zero asymmetry) in the CMB framework, consistent with prior Planck results.
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Cosmologically viable non-polynomial quasi-topological gravity: explicit models, $\Lambda$CDM limit and observational constraints
Non-polynomial quasi-topological gravity models reproduce the standard thermal history, generate dynamical dark energy of geometric origin, and fit supernova, cosmic chronometer, and BAO data competitively with ΛCDM.
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Measurement of the galaxy-velocity power spectrum of DESI tracers with the kinematic Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect using DESI DR2 and ACT DR6
DESI DR2 and ACT DR6 data yield 17σ LRG-velocity, 8.3σ ELG-velocity, and 6.8σ QSO-velocity detections plus a 3.1σ velocity-velocity signal, producing f_NL^loc = 15.9_{-34.4}^{+34.6} from the velocity field.
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Correlation between nuclear isospin asymmetry and $\alpha$-particle preformation probability for superheavy nuclei from a Bayesian inference
Bayesian MCMC fitting of a phenomenological model reveals that isospin asymmetry strongly suppresses alpha preformation probability in superheavy nuclei while reproducing shell effects and experimental half-lives.
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Accelerated Time-domain Analysis for Gravitational Wave Astronomy
Presents a practical fully time-domain end-to-end likelihood for gravitational-wave inference with structured linear algebra and GPU acceleration.
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Cosmological analysis of the DESI DR1 Lyman alpha 1D power spectrum
DESI DR1 Lyman-alpha data yields Δ²★=0.379±0.032 and n★=-2.309±0.019 at k★=0.009 km⁻¹s and z=3, sharpening N_eff, α_s, and β_s constraints by factors of 1.18-1.90 when combined with other probes.
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The velocity coherence scale: a novel probe of cosmic homogeneity and a potential standard ruler
The velocity coherence scale R_v marks the onset of statistical homogeneity, is redshift-independent in comoving coordinates, and connects directly to the matter-radiation equality scale k_eq in standard cosmology.
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High CO/H2 ratios supports an exocometary origin for a CO-rich debris disk
First direct H2 measurements in two CO-rich exocometary belts yield CO/H2 lower limits of >1.35e-3 and >3.09e-5, showing the gas is H2-poor and supporting secondary exocometary origin.
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First astrometric constraints on parity-violation in the gravitational wave background
First astrometric constraints on parity-violating SGWB amplitude are reported as h70²ΩV = -0.020 ± 0.025 (Gaia) and -0.004 ± 0.010 (VLBA) at 2σ, consistent with zero, over 4.2e-18 Hz to 1.1e-8 Hz.
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Tomographic Alcock-Paczynski Test with Marked Correlation Functions
First integration of tomographic AP tests with MCFs and PCA compression yields 48% and 45% tighter errors on Ω_m and w versus standard two-point functions.
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DESI 2024 III: Baryon Acoustic Oscillations from Galaxies and Quasars
DESI measures BAO scales in six redshift bins with 0.52% combined precision using 5.7 million objects, detecting the signal at up to 9.1 sigma and finding larger scales than Planck LCDM at z<0.8.
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Compact Objects Merging with Stars as an Origin of Ultra-Long Gamma-Ray Bursts and Luminous Fast Blue Optical Transients
SN 2011kl is broadly consistent with an LFBOT light-curve model and ULGRB hosts match LFBOT/LGRB environments, supporting a shared He-CO merger progenitor for a subset of both classes.
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Assembly bias and the redshift evolution of intrinsic alignments for LRGs
FLAMINGO simulation analysis shows IA amplitude for LRGs depends on halo assembly history and exhibits redshift evolution beyond mass effects, yielding an empirical mass-redshift model.
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Establishing Compactness as a Population Observable in Gravitational-Wave Astronomy
A hierarchical analysis of 69 GWTC-3 black-hole merger candidates yields an effective compactness consistent with C=0.5 and no evidence for a low-compactness exotic population.
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The GAPS programme at TNG: LXXVI. TOI-1533: a compact system hosting a super-Neptune-mass pair with disparate radii
TOI-1533 is confirmed as a rare compact system hosting an inner sub-Neptune and an outer hot super-Neptune-mass giant with nearly equal masses and very different radii.
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Neural posterior estimation of Galactic Binary signals for the LISA mission
Conditional normalizing flows perform likelihood-free parameter estimation for single and overlapping LISA galactic binaries, generating thousands of posterior samples per second after training on simulations.
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HIcosmo: a differentiable JAX-based framework for cosmology inference
HIcosmo is a new JAX-based differentiable framework for background cosmology inference that matches Cobaya results while delivering 8.7x CPU and up to 20x GPU speedups.
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Thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich cross-correlations with unWISE galaxies: disentangling radio contamination, dust properties, and electron pressure
Adding a fitted radio-emission component to tSZ×galaxy cross-spectra removes an apparent negative small-scale signal and yields spectra consistent with a standard halo model (9.5–11σ BIC preference for the radio term).
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Analytical and fitting formulae for solutions to Lyman-alpha radiative transfer equations: the effects of geometry, recoil, and velocity gradients
Analytical and fitting formulae for Lyα radiative-transfer spectra under slab, cylindrical and spherical geometries, including recoil and constant velocity gradients, verified against Monte Carlo simulations.
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The panchromatic JWST dayside spectrum of WASP-121 b reveals a refractory-rich formation
Panchromatic JWST spectrum of WASP-121 b detects SiO and measures refractory-to-volatile ratios 3x stellar, consistent with mixed solid-gas accretion or migration with continued solid accretion.
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Variables in S-PLUS: I. Multiband period-luminosity relations and reddening maps of the Magellanic Clouds using classical Cepheids
First multiband P-L relations for Cepheids in S-PLUS system with reddening maps of the Magellanic Clouds from single-epoch photometry.
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LEGGOS I: The JWST LEGGOS Survey -- LEnsing and Galaxy Growth: Observing Substructures -- Unpacks the Nature of Clumpy Star Formation and Quenching in Gravitationally Lensed Galaxies beyond Cosmic Noon
A JWST survey of eight gravitationally lensed galaxies at z=2-4 resolves 10-200 pc star-forming clumps and finds early evidence of recently quenched, post-starburst clumps.
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Old and Bright: The Remarkable Radio Brightening of the Engine-driven SN 2012au Several Years After Explosion Signals the Birth of a PWN
Late-time radio observations of SN 2012au show re-brightening best explained by emission from a newborn pulsar wind nebula rather than continued shock interaction with circumstellar material.